tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post114598211998640949..comments2023-10-08T06:24:07.089-07:00Comments on Seattle Bubble: What's Your Seattle Bubble Timeline?The Timhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.comBlogger55125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146200980114529162006-04-27T22:09:00.000-07:002006-04-27T22:09:00.000-07:00Nope, I don't live there. Haven't since I moved ou...Nope, I don't live there. Haven't since I moved out and to Denver in 1984. Can't (and won't) afford to go back. Nice to visit from time to time though. I just grew up there and consider it my "hometown". Went to school there (except when we were deployed). Met my wife there in 1979 (her dad was a Doctor at the Amphib Base). My father was also a PPC (P-2/P-3) who bought in Coronado in '59 and my Mom sold in '85 (at the bottom). It's INSANE how much my childhood home is selling for. Totally nuts. <BR/><BR/>Nope, no overextension for us.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146079899775013302006-04-26T12:31:00.000-07:002006-04-26T12:31:00.000-07:00Chipmunkbob,Yes, Coronado IS a very special place....Chipmunkbob,<BR/><BR/>Yes, Coronado IS a very special place. It is one of the very few places I would actually live in California (San Luis Obispo, Diablo, Coronado, and Lake Tahoe).<BR/><BR/>As I am sure you understand, when I say "special," I am referring to how people think the laws of economics, mathematics, and bubble phenomenon do not apply to them.<BR/><BR/>Coronado, as you are probably aware, sells for 13-17x median income. It's a jewel, but an expensive one at that. I hope you are not overextended.<BR/><BR/>Dude, if you call Coronado home, you are very, very blessed.<BR/><BR/>E<BR/><BR/>BTW, I was a P-3 pilot, and spent a month in Coronado back in '96. It was one of the best months of my life. Unfortunately, the wife spent the entire time chucking her guts, due to her pregnancy with our eldest.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146077694625093232006-04-26T11:54:00.000-07:002006-04-26T11:54:00.000-07:00Eleua,Being a Coronado native, it IS a special pla...Eleua,<BR/><BR/>Being a Coronado native, it IS a special place. Does that mean it justifies the ridiculous housing prices? No. <BR/><BR/>OT, but were you with one of the S-3 or helo squadrons at NASNI?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146075596684929692006-04-26T11:19:00.000-07:002006-04-26T11:19:00.000-07:00No, there is nothing special about Seattle. Seattl...No, there is nothing special about Seattle. Seattle is just late to the party and logically, it will be late to catch up with the (problematic) trend. A friend of mine left for Southern California around 8/04. His home me there had appreciated 60% in less than a year. At that time, he had a house in Duvall that he bought in 2001. His had trouble selling his house just to break even! Eventually, he had to rent out his house. Now, the house in this area had appreciated 30,40% since then. Lucky for him!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146074905065878012006-04-26T11:08:00.000-07:002006-04-26T11:08:00.000-07:00Meshugy,Some of those cities (e.g. Boston) are muc...Meshugy,<BR/><BR/>Some of those cities (e.g. Boston) are <I>much</I> bigger than Seattle. Others (e.g. Phoenix) have housing markets that have already begun to implode.<BR/><BR/>Seattle is just battling its usual inferiority complex -- we're going to have a "world-class" housing bubble too (even if we have to start a bit later in the game).Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146074600794187212006-04-26T11:03:00.000-07:002006-04-26T11:03:00.000-07:00Inventory always rises at this time of year becaus...Inventory always rises at this time of year because this is when people sell houses. Inventory always goes down in winter because that is when people take their houses off the market for the Thanksgiving to Super Bowl market stagnancy. Prices also typically fall in the last quarter and first quarter of the following year because all the properties that are left on the market are dogs or mispriced.<BR/><BR/>This market is not being driven solely by California money although that is a large component. In-migration is a factor, with people coming from all over the country to Seattle for a host of reasons. Many of these people have degrees from top-tier schools and are coming to Seattle to take commensurate jobs. They drive a large portion of the market. Another part of the equity arbitrage are people taking their equity from outlying communities and moving to closer-in communities. Outlying communities have seen just as large of a run-up as other places in the wider Sound region and that translates into thousands of dollars of equity for down payments (for those smart enough to recognize it).<BR/><BR/>It would be a mistake to underestimate the effects of Asian money in the Seattle market as well. Though there are few metrics to reference, it is a very real element in the market. Seattle is a pan-Asian city and that phenomenon will not abate so long as the US stays in the Bretton Woods II arrangement that we have with the Asian economies. An adjustment of the the renminbi or a banking crisis in Asia (as happens all too frequently) could stagger this to some degree but it would probably be a hiccup rather than a structural realignment. Many Asian families buy houses and condos for their children to live in while they go to school. The UW is roughly 30% Asian with similar numbers at other schools, I would assume. That makes for a healthy bit of activity.<BR/><BR/>When a weakening happens, I believe it will start further out, where there are not land use controls (nor general appeal) as pronounced as in Seattle proper. There is a huge amount of value in being able to get downtown in 15 minutes for work. That's why we bought in Ballard/Loyal Heights. (disclaimer: no SUV stroller, just a black lab and i'll take drip coffee any day). Traffic functions as a geographical constraint in the same way that actual physical boundaries and water rights do.<BR/><BR/>Anyhow, these are just a few comments. I have been watching this blog (and the housing bubble) since before I bought a house. We paid mid-$400s for a mid-century rambler with 1150 SF above and full basement below with 300 SF finished rec room, garage and covered patio. It's less than five minutes to the beach at Golden Gardens and 15 minutes to almost any location in the city when it isn't rush hour. I figured the dirt underneath the house was worth at least $300k, meaning the house only had to contribute $50/SF. I think that it probably does. The neighborhood is immaculate and friendly. We are on a fixed 30 year loan with 25% down. Our payments are about $500/month above what we would pay for a comparable rental. We can afford it. In a rental market run-up, $500/mo. can get wasted away pretty quickly. We didn't come close to stretching ourselves financially. I think there are a lot of other people like us out there too. There are people in this town that make a lot of money and some that know what they are doing with it too. If there is a downturn, I plan on adjusting my basis in real estate by buying distressed properties to offset any loss we might take.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146074276951203922006-04-26T10:57:00.000-07:002006-04-26T10:57:00.000-07:00Maybe Tim could start a new thread where we could ...Maybe Tim could start a new thread where we could discuss whether the Puget Sound area is "special" or not?Surkanstancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04585126606657293898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146072580168269392006-04-26T10:29:00.000-07:002006-04-26T10:29:00.000-07:00Keep in mind that JNPR would NEVER trade less than...Keep in mind that JNPR would NEVER trade less than $150. People just would not sell, or so I was told.<BR/><BR/>$5 is quite a trim from $244.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146072348014105832006-04-26T10:25:00.000-07:002006-04-26T10:25:00.000-07:00It is X-Cal equity refugees that are propping the ...It is X-Cal equity refugees that are propping the market. Arid-zona and Nevada have had their run, and we are just finishing out ours. Once California inverts for real, it is good-night for the PNW.<BR/><BR/>Anyone remember the tech bubble? Anyone? When the big names were all burning and crashing, Juniper Networks (JNPR) was soaring to new heights. In the depths of the descent for the tech sector, JNPR was bid up to $244/share. JNPR was "special" and did not have the "same metrics" as the rest of the techies. CNBC treated JNPR like they did GOOG when it was released. Believe me, it was a darling.<BR/><BR/>Well, that story ended with JNPR going from $244 to under $5 in a very short time. It turns out that JNPR was not so special, and the "metrics" used to measure a company's worth applied to JNPR just like everyone else.<BR/><BR/>JNPR is under $20 today.<BR/><BR/>Seattle is the last domino in the chain. We will fall into an environment that has NO support for real estate, unlike Boston, Florida, and San Diego. Those markets are being cushioned by a "hopeful" economy.<BR/><BR/>Nope, when Seattle goes, it will go with a huge bang.<BR/><BR/>Bubbles are bubbles. They are all the same. We are not special.<BR/><BR/>BTW, it never fails...everywhere I go, everyone thinks they are special. I've heard it about Seattle, San Francisco, Coronado, Silverdale, Poulsbo, Bainbridge Island, Bellingham, etc. <BR/><BR/>I've heard it about stocks (back up 6 years). The NAZ (5100 to 800), MSFT, JNPR, INTC, GOOG, YHOO, AMZN, LRCX, CDWC, AMAT, NTAP, CMGI, GLW, KKD, ENE, CSCO, GTW, DELL, RMBS, MU, etc. Every last one of those, at one time, or still does think that classical valuations do not apply to them. They were all mercilessly pimped by CNBC and the Wall Street Industrial Complex. They all lost significant value.<BR/><BR/>It will happen. We are witnesses to it.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146072211194551642006-04-26T10:23:00.000-07:002006-04-26T10:23:00.000-07:00Anonymous said: "not sure where 98008 is but looks...Anonymous said: "not sure where 98008 is but looks like it's out of the city"<BR/><BR/>I am in Bellevue.Surkanstancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04585126606657293898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146071944130795182006-04-26T10:19:00.000-07:002006-04-26T10:19:00.000-07:00Hmmm...not sure where 98008 is but looks like it's...Hmmm...not sure where 98008 is but looks like it's out of the city. So maybe you're catching the tail end because homes are cheaper out where you are?<BR/><BR/>Here's the inventory for the in-city zips I check on seattle-realestate.com:<BR/><BR/>Fremont:April 13- 54 properties<BR/> April 23- 59 "<BR/><BR/>Ballard:April 13- 121 properties<BR/> April 23- 138"<BR/><BR/>Inventory looks to be going up for the first time since last Fall. It was dropping thru the winter.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146071935236294382006-04-26T10:18:00.001-07:002006-04-26T10:18:00.001-07:00Matt said: "Yes, we are that special... to coin a ...Matt said: "Yes, we are that special... to coin a 'dot-com' era phrase "We've achieved a new plateua, we are working under a completely new paradygm, prices will only go higher""<BR/><BR/>Well, if the Seattle area is NOT special, then what would explain the persistent tightness of our market even as many other regions are starting to hurt?Surkanstancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04585126606657293898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146071897242960052006-04-26T10:18:00.000-07:002006-04-26T10:18:00.000-07:00Hi Mikhail,If you check the #s on the Housing Tra...Hi Mikhail,<BR/><BR/>If you check the #s on the <A HREF="http://www.benengebreth.org/housingtracker/" REL="nofollow"> Housing Tracker</A> site you'll see that Seattle has a fraction of the inventory of comparable cities:<BR/><BR/>As of 4/21/06<BR/><BR/>Seattle: 3,382<BR/><BR/>Portland: 4,534<BR/><BR/>Boston: 6,763<BR/><BR/>Raleigh-Druham: 8,765<BR/><BR/>Minneapolis: 16,142<BR/><BR/>Orlando: 19,481<BR/><BR/>Phoenix: 22,096<BR/><BR/>Chicago: 31,564<BR/><BR/>Atlanta: 41,392<BR/><BR/>San Francisco has us beat at: 1,873<BR/><BR/>We have one of the tightest markets in the country...that's for sure. But how long will it last?meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146071285474516342006-04-26T10:08:00.000-07:002006-04-26T10:08:00.000-07:00Yes, we are that special... to coin a 'dot-com' er...Yes, we are that special... to coin a 'dot-com' era phrase "We've achieved a new plateua, we are working under a completely new paradygm, prices will only go higher"<BR/><BR/>Sound about right?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146069733522820712006-04-26T09:42:00.000-07:002006-04-26T09:42:00.000-07:00On a completely seperate topic: does anyone care t...On a completely seperate topic: does anyone care to speculate as to why the Seattle area market still seems to be SO tight? I check ZipRealt.com regularly, and am just amazed at how few listings there are in my area (98008). In fact, the number of listings keeps DROPPING!<BR/><BR/>Why is the Seattle area seeing such a resiliant real-estate market despite all the weakness growing across the country? Are we truly "special"?Surkanstancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04585126606657293898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146068849110789242006-04-26T09:27:00.000-07:002006-04-26T09:27:00.000-07:00All of this attention over what kind of stroller, ...All of this attention over what kind of stroller, what brand of coffee, what your clothes look like--how depressing and small-minded. It's like being back in high school. The world is a big, complicated place and does not care what kind of car you drive or which radio station sticker is stuck on the back window.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146036299461019332006-04-26T00:24:00.000-07:002006-04-26T00:24:00.000-07:00Here we go:Isnt' this just precious?(I've driven c...Here we go:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.rightstart.com/global/store/product~item~5384~dept~strollers~cat~jogging++and+sport+utility+strollers.html" REL="nofollow"><BR/>Isnt' this just <I>precious</I>?</A><BR/><BR/>(I've driven cars that didn't cost that much.)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146036112079992372006-04-26T00:21:00.000-07:002006-04-26T00:21:00.000-07:00SUV stroller = strollers on steroids with big bicy...SUV stroller = strollers on steroids with big bicycle wheels, aircraft aluminum tube frames, and ballistic nylon pouch/slings for the yuppie larvae.<BR/><BR/>Designed for running, but most often seen in front of people wearing polar fleece, sipping coffee at the local Starbucks.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146031096623385982006-04-25T22:58:00.000-07:002006-04-25T22:58:00.000-07:00Van Housing-Aw c'mon, Canadians are T-riffic!Van Housing-<BR/><BR/>Aw c'mon, Canadians are T-riffic!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146026707217649852006-04-25T21:45:00.000-07:002006-04-25T21:45:00.000-07:00...ambling down the street with a double-wide stro...<I>...ambling down the street with a double-wide stroller, polar fleece and venti vanilla lattes...</I><BR/><BR/>yep, that's me....it's actually pretty nice being bland.meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146026328564840002006-04-25T21:38:00.000-07:002006-04-25T21:38:00.000-07:00"polar fleece, SUV strolelr at the Starbucks? *yaw..."polar fleece, SUV strolelr at the Starbucks? *yawn*"<BR/><BR/>What the hell is an SUV stroller anyway?<BR/><BR/>All I'm saying is that it's real easy to find interesting stuff behind these facades.Vanitay Prabakashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05024556885689008062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146025789781361942006-04-25T21:29:00.001-07:002006-04-25T21:29:00.001-07:00sorry nick, I have to disagree... most people are ...sorry nick, I have to disagree... most people are bland. <BR/><BR/>Find me a Vegan Seattle-ite who hits Yoga daily but is also a gun nut with an arsenal of vintage Colts, and I'll show you exciting... <BR/><BR/>Or find me somebody who brags about listening to KEXP but also has a KVI sticker in their back window...<BR/><BR/>Or a computer programmer who drives a monster truck, but also enjoys hitting the neighborhood coffeehouse book club...<BR/><BR/>polar fleece, SUV strolelr at the Starbucks? *yawn*Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146025759663071392006-04-25T21:29:00.000-07:002006-04-25T21:29:00.000-07:001Q-09: New president confiscates gold and silver a...1Q-09: New president confiscates gold and silver again. Currency export controls established. Strict racial quotas enforced in all aspects of employment, education and contracts. US invades Venezuela. <BR/><BR/>Tue Apr 25, 10:42:54 AM PDT <BR/><BR/>+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++<BR/><BR/>Time for a check-up?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146019626310527702006-04-25T19:47:00.000-07:002006-04-25T19:47:00.000-07:00"You need to learn the difference between a genera..."You need to learn the difference between a generalization and an observation. Go back and read what I said: I mentioned some people that I saw (bland people, living bland lives, blandly), and said that they were bland. That's an observation. Nothing to get worked up about, see?"<BR/><BR/>Yeah, right. And the little snarky part about "popping out 1.5 kids" wasn't a generalization, now was it? I mean, you literally saw multiple families with "1.5 kids", right? That wasn't intended AT ALL to generalize about certain swaths of the population, was it?<BR/><BR/>And even if you weren't generalizing (which you clearly were), your observation of people as "bland" purely upon sight is about as elitist as it comes. Because you stopped and had in depth conversations with all these people and found out all their individual hopes and dreams as humans, right?<BR/><BR/>Give it up.Vanitay Prabakashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05024556885689008062noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146018318178864222006-04-25T19:25:00.000-07:002006-04-25T19:25:00.000-07:00You guys think you have a smug problem? Ever been...You guys think you have a smug problem? Ever been to Canada? To Vancouver? We are the smuggiest city in the smuggiest country in the world.<BR/><BR/>Idiots here think don't understand why the Taliban wants to blow us away too - I mean, didn't they see the Canadian flags on our backpacks?Van Housing Bloggerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08547691078400829048noreply@blogger.com