tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post114643027529215608..comments2023-10-08T06:24:07.089-07:00Comments on Seattle Bubble: Seattle Bubble Notion "Put To Rest"The Timhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.comBlogger10125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146506333336729162006-05-01T10:58:00.000-07:002006-05-01T10:58:00.000-07:0012% chance?Asked another way...What are the chance...12% chance?<BR/><BR/>Asked another way...<BR/><BR/>What are the chances that tomorrow's buyer will pony up 50% more, ON A MONTHLY PAYMENT BASIS, for the same house?<BR/><BR/>People are looking at houses from the "total cost" point of view. This is the figure that pops into your head when someone asks how much your house is worth.<BR/><BR/>Look at appreciation from a monthly payment point of view, and you get a very different picture.<BR/><BR/>Repeat after me...<BR/><BR/>As interest rates come down, housing prices go up. This is because more money can be shifted to the "principle" portion of the payment.<BR/><BR/>As interest rates go up, housing prices come down. This is because more money must be shifted to the interest portion of the monthly payment.<BR/><BR/>Repeat as often as necessary.<BR/><BR/>Also, as interest rates rise, jobs decrease, venture capital is harder to find, and the cost of things tend to become more expensive (provided they are not purchased with borrowed money).<BR/><BR/>Just because we are getting X-Cal equity refugees that can still sell in California, does not mean we have a fundamentally healthy market.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146502485111321532006-05-01T09:54:00.000-07:002006-05-01T09:54:00.000-07:00David Lereah (NAR head) finally came right and sai...<I>David Lereah (NAR head) finally came right and said it:<BR/><BR/>Double digit drops for RE.</I><BR/><BR/>I think he was just talking about Florida.....meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146501848729628202006-05-01T09:44:00.000-07:002006-05-01T09:44:00.000-07:00Santa Fe is worse. Looks like they had to play gam...Santa Fe is worse. Looks like they had to play games with MLS definitions because the median <A HREF="http://www.abqtrib.com/albq/bu_local/article/0,2565,ALBQ_19838_4627475,00.html" REL="nofollow">grew to 470K</A>.SourMashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17048719626884169469noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146501675490803902006-05-01T09:41:00.000-07:002006-05-01T09:41:00.000-07:00I don't necessarily agree with the PMI report. I t...I don't necessarily agree with the PMI report. I think we probably have more then a 12% chance of prices dropping.<BR/><BR/>Does anyone know how much we can really trust PMI? They obviously have a vested interest in the housing industry , so it makes sense they would want to portray a rosy picture.<BR/><BR/>'mmeshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146469146207696492006-05-01T00:39:00.000-07:002006-05-01T00:39:00.000-07:00Well, Meshugy, I'll tell you what:If it turns out ...Well, Meshugy, I'll tell you what:<BR/><BR/>If it turns out to be true that Seattle is Special (tm), and that San Diego and Phoenix and other, nicer, warmer, sunnier places will have significant real estate price drops, while drizzly, cloudy, mouldy-assed Seattle continues to appreciate, I'll gladly do my part to lower demand: <I>I'll move somewhere nicer.</I><BR/><BR/>I suspect that an entire generation is preparing to move with me.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146460895543416192006-04-30T22:21:00.000-07:002006-04-30T22:21:00.000-07:00Well Meshugy, if you're right, I'll eat my hat.On ...Well Meshugy, if you're right, I'll eat my hat.<BR/><BR/>On to other things:<BR/><BR/>David Lereah (NAR head) finally came right and said it:<BR/><BR/>Double digit drops for RE.<BR/><BR/>The article's at "golbaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com"Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146460847742554472006-04-30T22:20:00.000-07:002006-04-30T22:20:00.000-07:00I am a believer in the general housing bubble, but...I am a believer in the general housing bubble, but I've got to admit that the market in the Bellevue area just doesn't show ANY signs of weakness yet. The number of listings are low, and I see many of the homes in my area selling quickly. I keep hearing acquaintances telling us how their homes have recently sold VERY fast for top dollar.Surkanstancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04585126606657293898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146460436571090572006-04-30T22:13:00.000-07:002006-04-30T22:13:00.000-07:00For a very detailed analysis of the current housin...For a very detailed analysis of the current housing market, I'd recommend looking at the latest PMI index:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://www.pmigroup.com/lenders/media_lenders/pmi_eret06v2s.pdf" REL="nofollow">Economic and Real Estate Trends</A><BR/><BR/>Seattle was given a risk index of 121, which means there's only about a 12% chance of price reductions in Seattle. San Diego was rated at 598, meaning they have nearly a 60% chance of reductions.<BR/><BR/>The report also mentions:<BR/><BR/><I>Heading north, Seattle, WA and Portland, OR are the only<BR/>MSAs in the West besides Phoenix, AZ that are in the bottom<BR/>25 of the Risk Index ranking. While Phoenix remains No.1 in<BR/>price appreciation and acceleration rates, Seattle and Portland<BR/>also had strong price appreciation this quarter: 16% and 18%,<BR/>respectively, up from an average of 10% a year ago. With<BR/>employment growth occurring in every economic sector, the<BR/>areas’ Risk Index scores have stayed relatively low, at slightly<BR/>above 100, despite increasing Affordability Index scores.<BR/>Housing demand is expected to remain strong, buoyed by continued<BR/>solid performance of the areas’ labor markets.</I><BR/><BR/>Listen to a podcast of the report:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://media.corporate-ir.net/media_files/IROL/63/63356/pmipodcastapril2006.mp3" REL="nofollow">Spring 2006 Economic and Real Estate Trends Podcast</A>meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146448043130063712006-04-30T18:47:00.000-07:002006-04-30T18:47:00.000-07:00I love this one... "Buyers tend to go through maki...I love this one...<BR/><BR/><I/> "Buyers tend to go through making an offer on four or five homes, losing out on money or terms, until they get frustrated," Hunter said. "Then they say, 'I'm sick and tired of the game. I'm going to overbid because I just need to get into a home.' " </I><BR/><BR/>Hey Sheeple! I got one of you, if you're sick and tired of the game, friggin' rent!!!!! I betcha dollars to latte's you'll get your coveted craftsman with a view in the coveted North End for a 1/3 of that bloated silly mortgage you're leveraging the rest of your life to squeeze into.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1146447756216390652006-04-30T18:42:00.000-07:002006-04-30T18:42:00.000-07:00Another ridiculous Rhodes article... especially th...Another ridiculous Rhodes article... especially this bizarre observation...<BR/><BR/>"It's also keeping King County prices climbing, putting to rest any notion that ours is a "bubble market" where prices will stall or even fall."<BR/><BR/>Errr, is it just me or is this a Philosophy 101 logical falacy? Due to the fact that in order for a 'bubble' to exist it must have a meteoric rise before its inevitable disastorous fall. <BR/><BR/>Lile driving on I-90 east, but temporarily going around a bend and saying "well I guess this puts to bed any notion that we're on I-90 east, because we're going sount!"<BR/><BR/>Geezus, Elizabeth, retire or something...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com