tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post115020838270589203..comments2023-10-08T06:24:07.089-07:00Comments on Seattle Bubble: Pierce Property Tax Valuations Up 22%The Timhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1155190036847361412006-08-09T23:07:00.000-07:002006-08-09T23:07:00.000-07:00www.flippedmovie.comwww.flippedmovie.comAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150412903768997062006-06-15T16:08:00.000-07:002006-06-15T16:08:00.000-07:00One of my first jobs was working for a company wit...One of my first jobs was working for a company with offices in Allentown and Scranton. Now that's a depressing set of places. Even where I lived outside Philly, which is a fairly nice city, there were miles and miles of urban blight. Detroit and Philly haven't really recovered from the "white flight" to the suburbs. Although there are pockets of the downtown core that are really upscale now.<BR/><BR/>I will say that there are lots of dying small towns littering Eastern Washington. It's just a matter of time before places like Garfield County become ghost towns.<BR/><BR/>Seattle doesn't have anything like that, and I'm not sure what would create that scenario (the urban blight). <BR/><BR/>The massive layoffs at Boeing caused big price drops in housing, but that was very short-term. The dot-com bust definitely hurt the economy and the state lost people for the first time in like 20 years, but that's recovered too. Microsoft laying off 10,000 people would have a huge negative local impact, but they're over in Redmond, and represent a far smaller percentage of actual population than Boeing workers did in the late 70s. The ripple effect would be pretty bad, though.<BR/><BR/>Downtown looks a lot nicer than it used to, and close-in neighborhoods that "used to be cheap" are all gentrifying. I bet if prices dropped 30%, even more people would move to the Central District, or older parts of Ravenna, etc. Georgetown? Not so much.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150331881255395582006-06-14T17:38:00.000-07:002006-06-14T17:38:00.000-07:00Well Pepe and Bili, isn't this a fine coincidence....Well Pepe and Bili, isn't this a fine coincidence.<BR/><BR/>Every now and again, I look around some of these fine Seattle in-city neighborhoods and envision them in a severe economic downturn. Easy enough to do once you've lived in the NE.<BR/><BR/>American propensity to hightail it to the burbs when the economy goes south.<BR/><BR/>There seemed to be a lot of money in the Albany area, most of it was just in the burbs it seemed.<BR/><BR/>Isn't Detroit the same? There's money and people there- they just don't live in the city anymore?<BR/><BR/>Once that happens, it's like pulling teeth to get Americans to move back in.<BR/><BR/>Have you seen Providence, RI? That city did a WAY better job than most of "reclaiming" itself in the 90's. But even there, huge areas are kind of a wasteland.<BR/><BR/>And then I think about the Seattle neighborhoods that, even in the greatest RE appreciation/scramble of all times, like Georgetown and Columbia City, they've been making a "comeback" now since '97 and still have not arrived. So where will they be when the US economy sours?<BR/><BR/>Too many questions! But I do wonder what Seattle will look like in 10 years.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150324711333585992006-06-14T15:38:00.000-07:002006-06-14T15:38:00.000-07:00The good news is, the FHA is instituting the first...The good news is, the FHA is instituting the first anti-flipping regulations, beginning July 7.<BR/><BR/>They're not that stringent- yet. Hopefully it's a sign of more to come.<BR/>And they are rules, not suggestions.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150324459150900602006-06-14T15:34:00.000-07:002006-06-14T15:34:00.000-07:00Phew. That is one sad link Biliruben. Troy was the...Phew. That is one sad link Biliruben. Troy was the same. Too many out of town "investors" who basically abandon the property when they can't make it work. Then it goes on the auction block, 2 times a year at city hall. Thousands of properties each time.<BR/><BR/>When you see town after town of abandoned buildings, you know the "We're running out of land" thing is a crock.<BR/><BR/>There are whole cities in this country, infrastructure already in place, that are waiting to be reclaimed.<BR/><BR/>People from other country's see these abandoned cities and cannot believe it.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150323839069850952006-06-14T15:23:00.000-07:002006-06-14T15:23:00.000-07:00Schenectady is such a beautiful city. I almost bou...Schenectady is such a beautiful city. I almost bought there a couple years ago. Lovely wooden 3-story flats for 40K on tree-lined boulevards.<BR/><BR/>But the property taxes were unbelievably high and then, of course, there's the weather. I've been spoiled by 17 years in Seattle.<BR/><BR/>People from Upstate NY are the only people I know out here who do not complain about Seattle weather.<BR/><BR/>Buffalo flippers are crazy!!! Upstate NY flippers in general are nuts!! Even the ones who live 2 hrs.on the Amtrack to NYC. Way to get burned!<BR/><BR/>I know that Buffalo was/is big. It was all over Craigslist! Silly out of staters buying sight unseen. But I didn't know about the documentary. thanks for the link, I'll check it out.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150312784787803712006-06-14T12:19:00.000-07:002006-06-14T12:19:00.000-07:00Biliruben-Lived outside of Albany (Troy) and relat...Biliruben-<BR/><BR/>Lived outside of Albany (Troy) and relatives in Syracuse, Utica, Schenectady.<BR/><BR/>Real estate is VERY cheap in the cities. Property taxes are through the roof. <BR/><BR/>As RE values have fallen, taxes have gone up. Every time there's another tax hike, more people leave the city. It's a huge downward spiral.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150299997430772232006-06-14T08:46:00.000-07:002006-06-14T08:46:00.000-07:00Looks like the cooling housing market is finally e...Looks like the cooling housing market is finally effecting the local economy:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/businesstechnology/2003059785_jobs14.html" REL="nofollow">Unemployment up in state as economic growth slows</A><BR/><BR/><I>No matter how you slice the numbers, though, the state's economy appears to be growing more slowly. A big reason, economists suspect, is the cooling of the Northwest housing market.<BR/><BR/>Statewide, the housing market in the first quarter was "basically flat" compared with the same period in 2005, said Glenn Crellin, director of Washington State University's Center for Real Estate Research.<BR/><BR/>While the median price rose 17.1 percent, according to the center, resales were down 0.3 percent and building permits were off by nearly 4 percent.<BR/><BR/>Though complete data for the current quarter aren't yet available, Crellin said, "it's beginning to look like the second quarter is going to come in a little slower than the second quarter of 2005, but still very active by historical standards."<BR/><BR/></I><BR/><BR/>Good news is we're loosing consruction jobs and replacing them with real jobs:<BR/><BR/><I>The state's construction sector, which had added a revised 300 jobs in April and 8,500 jobs since the beginning of the year, lost 500 jobs last month — the first construction-jobs losses in a year.<BR/><BR/>Aerospace continued strong, adding 400 jobs last month and 6,600 over the past 12 months.<BR/><BR/>Boeing reported that its Washington employment grew by 371 jobs in May to 64,175; virtually all the growth was in the Renton-based commercial-airplanes division.<BR/><BR/>Professional, scientific and technical services — a hodgepodge category that includes lawyers, accountants, architects and computer-systems administrators — added 1,400 jobs in May and 6,100 over the past 12 months.<BR/><BR/>Growth in that category, Tainer said, generally reflects the overall health of the state's economy.<BR/><BR/>And the Northwest's fundamentals remain strong, Mitchell said.</I>meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150295131534372872006-06-14T07:25:00.000-07:002006-06-14T07:25:00.000-07:00Hey Tim, did you catch this one (just out)...http:...Hey Tim, did you catch this one (just out)...<BR/><BR/>http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/273888_downtown14.html<BR/><BR/>The sheeple-stampede continues...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150261165004789902006-06-13T21:59:00.000-07:002006-06-13T21:59:00.000-07:00I think I'm going to invest in Coleman: Lanterns, ...I think I'm going to invest in Coleman: Lanterns, Tents, sleeping bags, folding chairs etc..<BR/><BR/>...Maybe even the companies that produce beans and hot dogs. I remember when my Dad was laid off at Boeing in the very early 80's. Our family diet changed. Looking back on it, it really sucked. I know I ate a lot of top ramen when I was a college dood.<BR/><BR/><BR/>:)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150260722471879032006-06-13T21:52:00.000-07:002006-06-13T21:52:00.000-07:00One other hugely important fact to remember is to ...One other hugely important fact to remember is to not lose sight of the fact that the Fed is going to release very strict guidelines on interest only ARMS and negative amortization loans. This will be the final nail that pops the bubble. Bernanke is the high priest of price stability and will do everything in his power to stop inflation, hence the declining stock markets globally. The entire world is simultaneously reigning in liquidity to slow an overheated global economy. The outcome is painfully obvious...bye-bye housing market.<BR/><BR/>At this stage there is a stand-off between buyers and sellers across the country, the few who have the cajones to buy are either foolish or wealthy, and their purchases are pushing up medians, making it seem as if the bubble is still in full throttle, when in reality sales volume is slowing to a trickle.<BR/><BR/>Do you think realtors really want these high valuations and no sales commission, of course not, they're rooting for a collapse too so they can start selling houses and make money again.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150259857054206992006-06-13T21:37:00.000-07:002006-06-13T21:37:00.000-07:00Thanks for the post Meshugy regarding the Harvard ...Thanks for the post Meshugy regarding the Harvard study. What I don't understand from the study is how they can conclude with a positive outlook on housing given the report's contents. I find it hard that other readers could conclude positively based on the information contained.<BR/><BR/>Most of their conclusions are based on the possibility of interest rates staying low and people having the ability to keep borrowing and spending, thus keeping the economy going.<BR/><BR/>The reality is that the Fed will most likely continue raising rates (with occasional future pauses) until they feel inflation is roughly under control (I could go on for hours on this one).<BR/><BR/>Rising interest rates will have a negative effect on the stock market. This will reduce the wealth affect associated with the stock market. Consumer confidence will stumble and consumer discretionary spending will decrease.<BR/><BR/>Rising interest rates will also push mortgage rates up, and will further squeeze affordability, thus throttling demand.<BR/><BR/>Appreciation rates on homes will begin to slow and people won't feel as "rich" as they did in 2005. This will decrease the wealth affect associated with housing and will also decrease spending thus lowering GDP.<BR/><BR/>Since 70% of the US GDP is composed of consumer discretionary spending, there is a good possibility we will enter a recession beginning as early as '07, but most likely mid-year '07.<BR/><BR/>The combined effect of a recession coupled with stagnant later year '06 real estate gains will result in a real estate market without buyers that can afford property that are buying in a recession in a real estate market in which appreciation is stagnant. Many buyers will decide to ride out the storm. Sellers pinched by adjusting ARMs will have to make some tough decisions.<BR/><BR/>If the recession results in layoffs, then peoples' permanent income hypothesis will be thusly affected. Those who relied on their salaries to afford their second home may decide it was a bad idea. This will also be complicated by Baby Boomers counting on their housing equity for their retirement and want to lock in their gains.<BR/><BR/>This will also be complicated by the fact that average American savings rates have been negative for the past few years thus leaving few with cushions.<BR/><BR/>The only things that would be able to close this gap would be rising wages, which is difficult to do in a time when corporate profits are on the decline or significant inflation, which I don't think the Fed is going to be easy on. We simply can't afford the dollar to tank and be supplanted by the Euro or other as the oil currency of choice.<BR/><BR/>God, I hope I'm wrong about this one. It's going to be a painful correction cycle.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150251448787494952006-06-13T19:17:00.000-07:002006-06-13T19:17:00.000-07:00In some places they do increase property taxes as ...In some places they do increase property taxes as values fall in an effort to make up the difference.<BR/><BR/>It's a great way to empty the neighborhood. See all of Upstate NY as an example.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150249361835218432006-06-13T18:42:00.000-07:002006-06-13T18:42:00.000-07:00Hey Meshugy, if the Harvard report is "obviously i...Hey Meshugy, if the Harvard report is "obviously in bed with the real estate industry" as you say...then why did you take the time to post it?<BR/><BR/>Just like when you had your panties all in a bunch about the Microsoft hiring article. You are worthless.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150249228429153842006-06-13T18:40:00.000-07:002006-06-13T18:40:00.000-07:00MeshugyClause talks with the confidence of one who...MeshugyClause talks with the confidence of one who is at the height of his own self defined bubble world.<BR/><BR/>Just like the folks once did in San Diego, Phoenix, Miami, Northern VA, Vegas and I could go on and on. It also reminds me of the jerks who never thought tech stocks would go down. Remember those assholes, there were plenty of them up here.<BR/><BR/>His arrogance, and disgustingness are truly a sight to behold.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150249138225657862006-06-13T18:38:00.000-07:002006-06-13T18:38:00.000-07:00For the most part, earthquake insurance is a ruse....For the most part, earthquake insurance is a ruse. The deductibles are so high that it is rare the damage would exceed the deductible amount. Plus ones premium basically doubles (at least when I checked a few years ago). And for homes that are retrofitted, the risk of getting really serious damage is markedly reduced. I just don't think it's a good buy. <BR/><BR/><I> p.s. billruben -- thanks for your review of some of the report data.</I>whetherforecasthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12061419022463486648noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150249009343952102006-06-13T18:36:00.000-07:002006-06-13T18:36:00.000-07:00Meshugy is just a complete asshole, plain and simp...Meshugy is just a complete asshole, plain and simple. His disgustingly smug remarks about how high and mighty we all are up here make me sick.<BR/><BR/>I have a Masters degree, big freakin deal! Does that make me better than someone else? NO! Does it make my real estate value go up? NO!<BR/><BR/>Tim, this guy is just a jerkoff, PERIOD!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150246114092132592006-06-13T17:48:00.000-07:002006-06-13T17:48:00.000-07:00you can, in most instances, only obtain earthquake...you can, in most instances, only obtain earthquake insurance if you have a retrofitted house, a process that can be prohibitively expensive. most people do not carry earthquake insurance because it is already expensive. now, for condo complexes, that becomes an interesting question.<BR/><BR/>the net effect, i would think, would be that overbuilding on sites that are in danger zones would be a guaranteed diminished return. the alternative is that there would be standards put into place like there were after Andrew that require certain building standards. these costs are, as always, passed onto the end user.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150243236007127092006-06-13T17:00:00.000-07:002006-06-13T17:00:00.000-07:00The Haaahhvad study has some interesting numbers, ...<I>The Haaahhvad study has some interesting numbers, even if you don't (or I don't, but perhaps shug-miester does) agree with it's conclusions</I><BR/><BR/>I wouldn't take the Harvard report too seriously...they're obviously in bed with the Real Estate industry.meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150236697741609432006-06-13T15:11:00.000-07:002006-06-13T15:11:00.000-07:00Let's see... property appreciation growth slowing ...Let's see... property appreciation growth slowing down, flattening off, and probably declining plus increasing property taxes plus increasing home insurance costs (due to higher home prices) - gee, I just want to run out and buy a house!<BR/><BR/>One more factor to consider that I'm not reading much about in the press - there's an impending insurance crunch coming which may impact property values - many of the major insurers (ie, State Farm, Allstate, etc) are just flat backing out of issuing hurricane and earthquake insurance. If any remain, they will be hiking premiums through the roof. What is the value of a property when you can't insure it against catastrophic loss and you're leveraged to the hilt? There is a real possibility that the risk premium will impact house values. Granted, hurricane insurance will impact the east coast but earthquake insurance will impact the whole west coast including here in WA.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150235342006025782006-06-13T14:49:00.000-07:002006-06-13T14:49:00.000-07:00Whoever took the time to provide the long list of ...Whoever took the time to provide the long list of sponsors for the Harvard study- Thankyou!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150230500684832402006-06-13T13:28:00.000-07:002006-06-13T13:28:00.000-07:00Once again folks, to filter the 'Shugy remarks, cl...Once again folks, to filter the 'Shugy remarks, click the 'said...', minimize and ignore...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150230085608236542006-06-13T13:21:00.000-07:002006-06-13T13:21:00.000-07:00Re the Harvard Study: Based on the funding sources...Re the Harvard Study: Based on the funding sources there is obviously a pro-real-estate bias. <BR/><BR/>And think about the statement: <I> "Demand is being driven not only by population growth but by household fragmentation, as couples divorce or children leave home. </I> Divorced households end up each being poorer - or one significantly poorer and the other the same or better off. That is hardly a formula for home-buying demand. <BR/><BR/>Rely on this info and suffer the consequences.whetherforecasthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12061419022463486648noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150226674628480872006-06-13T12:24:00.000-07:002006-06-13T12:24:00.000-07:00No one that I know tries to argue against the fact...<I>No one that I know tries to argue against the fact that more education leads to higher pay. I take issue with the arrogant assumption that more education == more "brainpower."</I><BR/><BR/>I'm with you on that...the advisors on my PhD committee were some the biggest morons I've ever dealt with. The Peruvian guy who does my gardening is sharper (no pun intended).<BR/><BR/>Education has more to do with privilege then intelligence.meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1150226633957290292006-06-13T12:23:00.000-07:002006-06-13T12:23:00.000-07:00You're right, Meshugy. I don't know why I never t...You're right, Meshugy. I don't know why I never thought of it before...it's all brainpower! <BR/><BR/>Seattle became unbelievably smart in the last three years, causing its home valuations to skyrocket. In fact, we're nearly <B>30% smarter</B> than we were three years ago. That explains why our home prices are 30% above their historical mean valuations.<BR/><BR/>Interest rates? Easy money? Bah. Those have <I>nothing</I> to do with it. It's all about the <I>brains</I> people. Braiiins. Juicy braiiiins. Mmmmm....<BR/><BR/>Gag. Don't you have a job, Meshugy?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com