tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post115203033734440773..comments2023-10-08T06:24:07.089-07:00Comments on Seattle Bubble: Washington Population Up 120,000The Timhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.comBlogger31125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152335912196502652006-07-07T22:18:00.000-07:002006-07-07T22:18:00.000-07:00Seriously, how did YOU did it??? Persistence, luck...<I>Seriously, how did YOU did it??? </I><BR/><BR/>Persistence, luck and willingness to take risks. Anyone who tells you it's 100% skill/talent that got them to where they are is lying.<BR/><BR/>Specifically, I worked at a dot-com from 96-2001, made some money (not millions) from selling stock. Had more than enough for a down payment, some home improvements, a working car, and a nest egg. I still am not planning on retiring before normal age, so I didn't get <B>that</B> lucky.<BR/><BR/>You gotta take risks, and they won't always work out. I took a huge risk taking a dot-com job (with a 25% pay cut) in 1996 and moving from my stable software job in a lower-cost city. I worked 16 hour days for almost 4 years (gaining 25 lbs of fat in the process) before getting laid off. But, I came out ahead monetarily. I could have just as easily chosen a startup that went nowhere. Or never sold any stock options. I still didn't sell when I should have to make the most out of my options. <BR/><BR/>After all that, I still don't earn $150k on my own, but combined with my wife I earn more than $150k. We both went to college, she has an advance degree, and we've been working in our respective fields for more than 12 years (since college). There's persistence there. I decided a nice salary was important to me, and work hard to stay ahead in my field. I manage my career somewhat actively (doesn't mean I job hop). I work hard and get great reviews at my job, and that leads to raises (not always every year).<BR/><BR/>I feel your pain about being bitter given the current environment. Who knows, I might end up laid off next year and my entire industry outsourced to India. Perhaps I'll be screwed. Can't stay up nights worrying about it. Doesn't help.<BR/><BR/>When I left college the economy for my field <B>sucked</B> (compared to how it was for people who left college when I entered). I thought I had made a stupid decision. 2 years later, things changed. And here I am.<BR/><BR/>Your situation will change too, if you're "open" to the risks you may have to take and persistent enough to persevere through the down-times.<BR/><BR/>Oh, one more funny story. I know a guy who was a veteran of 12 (count 'em) failed startups. His 13th made him a billionaire. Persistence helps too.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152123843995945742006-07-05T11:24:00.000-07:002006-07-05T11:24:00.000-07:00anon 8:38, here are my secrets. I don't have a 6 f...anon 8:38, here are my secrets. I don't have a 6 figure job. I have a second job that nets me an extra 10 grand a year. I don't have any children. I am a Costco member. I don't eat out often. I don't buy things very often. I don't have cable tv. If I can do it, so can anyone. Save, invest, be resourceful, make sacrifice.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152116707083720432006-07-05T09:25:00.000-07:002006-07-05T09:25:00.000-07:00"Because this is Seattle, it could never happen he...<I>"Because this is Seattle, it could never happen here"</I><BR/><BR/>When did Seattle ever become a bust-proof economy? Back when I did <I>live</I> near Seattle (70s-80s), there was nowhere near the crazy optimism I'm hearing now. Perhaps it's just all those realtors (or Californians?) congratulating themselves?marine_explorerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03092782038855356359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152115818756996932006-07-05T09:10:00.000-07:002006-07-05T09:10:00.000-07:00In fact, Seattle-Bellevue-Everett was rated as hav...In fact, Seattle-Bellevue-Everett was rated as having the 4th most middle income residents out of 100 American cities.<BR/><BR/>Here's the top 20 highest middle income areas in the US.<BR/><BR/>1 Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI<BR/>2 Grand Rapids-Muskegon-Holland, MI<BR/>3 Salt Lake City-Ogden, UT<BR/>4 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA<BR/>5 Omaha, NE-IA<BR/>6 Wichita, KS<BR/>7 Harrisburg-Lebanon-Carlisle, PA<BR/>8 Nassau-Suffolk, NY<BR/>9 Wilmington-Newark, DE-MD<BR/>10 Ann Arbor, MI<BR/>11 Middlesex-Somerset-Hunterdon, NJ<BR/>12 Kansas City, MO-KS<BR/>13 Denver, CO<BR/>14 Greensboro—Winston-Salem—High Point, NC<BR/>15 Sarasota-Bradenton, FL<BR/>16 Nashville, TN<BR/>17 Hartford, CT<BR/>18 Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI<BR/>19 Portland-Vancouver, OR-WA<BR/>20 Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, PAmeshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152115274358088692006-07-05T09:01:00.000-07:002006-07-05T09:01:00.000-07:00Middle-income neighborhoods decline in metro areas...<A HREF="http://www.inman.com/inmannews.aspx?ID=54019" REL="nofollow">Middle-income neighborhoods decline in metro areas</A><BR/><BR/>If you read the whole report, Seattle shows up a few times as one of the cities with a high amount of middle income housing. That was back in 2000...I wonder were we are now? My guess is that there's still a fair amount of middle income housing that needs to go before we have unaffordability like cities in CA and the North East.meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152114194170450302006-07-05T08:43:00.000-07:002006-07-05T08:43:00.000-07:00-did+doamong others probably (should've previewed!...-did<BR/>+do<BR/><BR/>among others probably (should've previewed!)...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152114030253829932006-07-05T08:40:00.000-07:002006-07-05T08:40:00.000-07:00-where+were-where<BR/>+wereAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152113915249239812006-07-05T08:38:00.000-07:002006-07-05T08:38:00.000-07:00Anon 2:12 said:"This also applies to many around t...Anon 2:12 said:<BR/><BR/>"This also applies to many around these spots waxing poetic day in and day out about not being able to put 20% down."<BR/><BR/>OK, dammit Anon 2:12. Put your f*in money where your mouth is. Because I'm just bitter about not getting my act together sooner, and because I'm just incapable of saving amidst this materialistic lifestyle I have succumbed to, just how exactly did YOU put 20% down on your box, huh? I'm talking about all 25-35's that have recently purchased (within last 0-4 years), exactly HOW did you put 20% down on a $450,000 sh*tbox in Renton, or wherever your hole resides? I want to know, because I'm just completely incapable of fathoming how you have $90,000 in cold cash to plop down for one of these things. Are you a software engineer making $150,000/year or a real-estate agent in the $1,000,000 gold medal club? If you're the engineer, for what company? How much experience do you have? Are you a manager or a coding peon? Are you guys hiring??? Seriously, how did YOU did it??? Did the family clan pool together, or where you just a meticulous saver all through out your college years, eating nothing but Hot Pockets and drinking Gatorade, culminating in an amassed fortune of $90,000 fresh out of college? How did you do it? (I'm a frustrated first-time buyer by the way, asking other first-time buyers out there...)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152090735843860432006-07-05T02:12:00.000-07:002006-07-05T02:12:00.000-07:00Take it easy, eleua. 10 of the 23 comments are mad...Take it easy, eleua. 10 of the 23 comments are made by you. I can't imagine you having too many friends with your curmudgeon way. If you use this much energy learning how to invest or working a second job, you'd be so rich there is no need to fret about a bubble. This also applies to many around these spots waxing poetic day in and day out about not being able to put 20% down.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152085025179004062006-07-05T00:37:00.000-07:002006-07-05T00:37:00.000-07:00$470,000 in a new community near Renton...Is it th...<I>$470,000 in a new community near Renton...Is it that overpriced and if so, by how much?</I><BR/><BR/>What percent of her neighbors are FBs that took on toxic, teaser loans?<BR/><BR/>What is the median home price compared to the median income?<BR/><BR/>How many speculators are in the area?<BR/><BR/>How much of the neighborhood is dependant on x-Cal equity money?<BR/><BR/>How much debt do her neighbors have to service every month?<BR/><BR/>How many of her neighbors are employed in the Real Estate Industrial Complex?<BR/><BR/>How many neighbors are only in their homes, until they can afford something they really want (Mercer Isl., Bellevue, Ballard)?<BR/><BR/>How interest rate sensitive are her neighbors?<BR/><BR/>How easy is it for the local gangs to tag her neighborhood?<BR/><BR/>Is her neighborhood traditionally a professional/semi-professional neighborhood, or a bunch of young, first time, relatively unskilled laborers?<BR/><BR/>How many renters are in the neighborhood?<BR/><BR/>What is the crime rate compared to similar and better neighborhoods?<BR/><BR/>Is it just like every other school district in the known universe, in the fact that it is "top tier?"Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152083883386326502006-07-05T00:18:00.000-07:002006-07-05T00:18:00.000-07:00I just don't think the bubble in Seattle is severe...I just don't think the bubble in Seattle is severe. My coworker bought a home earlier this year for $470,000 in a new community near Renton. I saw it the other day and it looks fantastic. 4 bedrooms, 3 baths, 3000 sqft, nice materials inside. Is it that overpriced and if so, by how much?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152081403846177182006-07-04T23:36:00.000-07:002006-07-04T23:36:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152076911441477202006-07-04T22:21:00.000-07:002006-07-04T22:21:00.000-07:00Just to show what life was like in the last bubble...Just to show what life was like in the last bubble, I saved one of the greatest flame posts I have ever read.<BR/><BR/>I submit this for your enjoyment and historical perspective.<BR/><BR/><I><B>Retard:<BR/>You don't think we were in a boom?<BR/><BR/>21 year olds running fortune 1000 firms from their dorm rooms <BR/>25 year olds retiring <BR/>VC's funding "Recipie of the day" websites with $20 mil <BR/>Studio apartments renting for $3000/mo. <BR/>Coffee latte's selling for $6 <BR/>Depression, and other "yuppie" diseases and their (coincidentally) expensive cures<BR/><BR/>Do you think the past few years were typical of an economic cycle? <BR/><BR/>Stocks of fake companies trading for BILLIONS in marketcap? <BR/>DOTCOM BUST, tons of stocks getting delisted after trading for $300 a share <BR/>People quitting jobs to trade stocks <BR/>CEO's getting paid BILLLIONS indirectly from insane paper wealth of stocks <BR/>Firms recording pension surplusses as income <BR/>Companies reporting FAKE $#%#% EARNINGS <BR/>Bankrupcies of MAJOR companies <BR/>MASSIVE insider trading <BR/>Wall St. IPO allocation fraud <BR/>Securities analysts being exposed as conflicted interest paid-shills <BR/>50000 Buy ratings, 1 sell rating <BR/>Record number of mutual funds, <BR/>Record percentage of households invested in stocks<BR/>You can't possibly be serious, idiot. This was a once in a lifetime financial <BR/>scam of historic proportions. You are just too self-centered to see it. Go get your MBA <BR/>so you can get your $125k job that your brother-in-law (barely) has. Stupid idiot, <BR/>these firms won't even EXIST by the time you get your joke of a degree, let alone have <BR/>a vacancy waiting for you. Enjoy your student loans and burger-flipping job, <BR/>sucker-chump-latecomer-carperbagger lemming<BR/><BR/>PS:<BR/><BR/>Fret for your figure and<BR/>Fret for your latte and<BR/>Fret for your lawsuit and<BR/>Fret for your hairpiece and<BR/>Fret for your prozac and<BR/>Fret for your pilot and<BR/>Fret for your contract and<BR/>Fret for your car. - It's a<BR/><BR/>Bull shit three ring cir cus side show of... <BR/><BR/><BR/>Freaks! </I></B><BR/><BR/>I wish that was my own. I get tears just reading it.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152076637117512012006-07-04T22:17:00.000-07:002006-07-04T22:17:00.000-07:00"It's going to be a challenge," Wiggin acknowledge...<I>"It's going to be a challenge," Wiggin acknowledged. "I'll be paying a lot more, but it'll be fine. It'll be a great investment."</I><BR/><BR/>OK, perhaps it's me, but...<BR/><BR/>Just how much will this "investment" be worth once you wring out the speculative premium, reset the interest rates to 8.5%, and flush the bottom quartile out of the market due to creditworthiness issues?<BR/><BR/>I'm curious...If you went to Pioneer Square, rolled a bum off his cardboard, hosed him off with salt water, brushed his teeth, and sent him to Countrywide, with a purchase contract for a $300K condo, would he get the 100% financing? He could say he makes $10K/mo as an "freelance urban fundraiser/low-tariff aqua vitae critic" (pan handler/bum/wino), with 25 years of experience.<BR/><BR/>Does anyone actually think the current lending standards can approximate any semblance of sustainable fiscal sanity?Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152069573403104832006-07-04T20:19:00.000-07:002006-07-04T20:19:00.000-07:00But the 475-square-foot condo, priced in the low $...<I>But the 475-square-foot condo, priced in the low $200s, will be tough financially. The mortgage is $700 more per month than the one-bedroom apartment she's currently renting until her condo is finished this fall.<BR/>...<BR/>"It's going to be a challenge," Wiggin acknowledged. "I'll be paying a lot more, but it'll be fine. It'll be a great investment."</I><BR/><BR/>I'm missing the "investment" part of her thinking. How much does she think her $230k condo will appreciate? It will have to go above $270k for her to make any money on it, and at that rate there's a lot more condos to look at, especially ones larger than 475 sq ft.<BR/><BR/>And at $700 more than her apartment (which is probably a lot larger) does she think she can rent it out to cover those costs?<BR/><BR/>The problem with buying a condo anywhere is that unless it is in an exclusive location the next one that goes up is more desirable. Is 24th and Market that exclusive?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152064260607836712006-07-04T18:51:00.000-07:002006-07-04T18:51:00.000-07:00I don't think the media are liars, just ignorant. ...I don't think the media are liars, just ignorant. They seem to do what most of the population does -- treat realtors as the experts. It's the realtors that are the liars. The media is just gullable. IMO.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152057172224706692006-07-04T16:52:00.000-07:002006-07-04T16:52:00.000-07:00I do believe the local media are full of liars and...I do believe the local media are full of liars and pimps.<BR/><BR/>When the nasdaq cratered, the financial press, CNBC included, all called the bottom every 500 points right down to the actual bottom (800+/-). There was no consensus that a bear market was on, and further damage was in the future.<BR/><BR/>If the financial press lied all the way down, why won't the real estate industry do the same?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152056803713490102006-07-04T16:46:00.000-07:002006-07-04T16:46:00.000-07:00Lake Hills Renter-To renew your faith, go back to ...Lake Hills Renter-<BR/><BR/>To renew your faith, go back to todays Housing Bubble blog. There's a post there , a quote from the mortgage brokers meeting about Bellevue and how the market's going downhill there. Flopped flippers, homes not moving, etc.<BR/><BR/>I think it's in the bits and buckets. (July 4). Pretty interesting.<BR/><BR/>Honestly, it's time for people to realize that the media around here is full of liars.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152048955849655912006-07-04T14:35:00.000-07:002006-07-04T14:35:00.000-07:00LH,IMHO, you are doing the correct thing. Debt fr...LH,<BR/>IMHO, you are doing the correct thing. Debt free is a wonderful way to go through life.<BR/><BR/>Suicide loans are a product of greed and fear. People think there is a goldrush in RE (greed), and fear they will miss out and be priced out forever.<BR/><BR/>That will turn to fear they have made a mistake by being too greedy. It happens in every investment sphere - no exceptions.<BR/><BR/>X-Cal equity, and 25 years of shrinking interest rates have made people think there is no downside. Another investment maxim is: the crowd is always wrong at inflection points - ALWAYS.<BR/><BR/>In every aspect of housing pricing, the market is priced for perfection. Therefore, the path of least resistance is down. That would be down on every factor (affordability, interest rates, stocks, savings, debt, trade, bullishness, demographics, etc.)<BR/><BR/>When that many factors point south in a short period of time, the panic will bloom like Bluebonnets in mid-April.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152048305606784912006-07-04T14:25:00.000-07:002006-07-04T14:25:00.000-07:00Strange, I see Texans all the time. Just saw a Tex...Strange, I see Texans all the time. Just saw a Texas plate going to grab some lunch in fact. I think the RE equity thing may be correct, since most of the Texas plates I've seen have been in apartment complexes and such. Maybe they moved up here for the jobs? That's what I did, just before the tech bubble pop. Dallas jobs were already sinking, and Seattle lasted another year, at least for my situation.<BR/><BR/>It's odd that I was pretty lefty in Texas -- and was thus an anomaly since I didn't live in Austin -- and became a libertarian after moving to the Seattle area. Grew up, I guess. ;)<BR/><BR/>Anyway, back on topic, I am still bearish and logic seems to dictate that prices will come down. About the only place someone in my position -- single income, good salary, debt free, refuses suicide loans -- can afford to buy is in places farther east like Preston, Fall City, etc. Nothing else is affordable on a 30 year fixed. Fortunately for me, that's where I want to look anyway. I'm glad I haven't saved my 20% yet though, because I <I>might</I> be tempted to buy now because of what seems to be a market defying logic IMO. The sliver of doubt is there, I just need to quash it. Patience, I keep telling myself...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152047118003200832006-07-04T14:05:00.000-07:002006-07-04T14:05:00.000-07:00Lake Hills,I don't have any Texas stats, as Texans...Lake Hills,<BR/><BR/>I don't have any Texas stats, as Texans are not a heavy player in my market (at least they don't seem to be).<BR/><BR/>We moved back from Texas (North Dallas), and we would certainly notice TAMU stickers. <BR/><BR/>My guess is that Texans don't have RE equity, and are not big players, like the Californians and New Yorkers. Also, the Bainbridge zeitgeist is a wee-bit too far left for your average TAMU grad. As for me, I enjoy living behind enemy lines...<BR/><BR/>I don't meet many x-Tex. <BR/><BR/>I do know many Texans that will laugh themselves silly when the bi-coastal bubble bursts. There is a limit to how much gloating you can endure from all your West Coast family and friends.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152046451704285232006-07-04T13:54:00.000-07:002006-07-04T13:54:00.000-07:00If S Crow is correct (and you would have to be a t...If S Crow is correct (and you would have to be a true believer to think otherwise), this housing market will likely suffer a double implosion.<BR/><BR/>RE at the top suffers from affordability issues, while RE at the bottom suffers from creditworthiness issues. If the middle class gets squeezed by ARMS, you could have the entire pyramid becoming unstable at once.<BR/><BR/>A triple implosion is beyond my darkest projections.<BR/><BR/>As far as those 120K/yr people go...how many are taking on risky loans to buy homes? Will they panic to preserve their "hard earned" equity?<BR/><BR/>How smart will they feel when they transport $200K of equity to a PNW home, just to watch it vanish?<BR/><BR/>This is something that has not happened in generations, so I doubt there is a reliable roadmap to use for charting the future.<BR/><BR/>Greed and fear move markets. The deeper the greed or fear, the more violent the move.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152046100682729702006-07-04T13:48:00.000-07:002006-07-04T13:48:00.000-07:00No capitulating for this bear just yet, but I'm st...No capitulating for this bear just yet, but I'm starting to fear that reality won't bear out my bearishness, if that makes any sense. I think the saving grace (for us bears anyway) is the coming ARM resets. I'm starting to think of it as the Great Equalizer.<BR/><BR/>I see a lot of Texans in the Seattle area as well as Californians, and not just recently. Since I moved here in 2000 I see Texas license plates and TAMU emblems all over the place. Maybe I just notice them more because I moved from there as well? Have any Texas stats comparable to the California one?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152045754673798652006-07-04T13:42:00.001-07:002006-07-04T13:42:00.001-07:00I'm starting to wonder if Meshugy's soft landing p...<I>I'm starting to wonder if Meshugy's soft landing predictions don't have some truth to them.</I><BR/><BR/>Bear capitualtion happens at the top of bull markets. Only the truly insane still believe the market will turn at the top.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1152045730881772492006-07-04T13:42:00.000-07:002006-07-04T13:42:00.000-07:00S Crow made a great post on the Housing Bubble Blo...S Crow made a great post on the Housing Bubble Blog yesterday about how intense things are getting at his office with people being unable to keep up with mortgage payments and frantic for money to pay bills.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com