tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post115496994488063982..comments2023-10-08T06:24:07.089-07:00Comments on Seattle Bubble: July: Inventory Up, Sales Down (Yet Again)The Timhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.comBlogger55125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1155849995142389572006-08-17T14:26:00.000-07:002006-08-17T14:26:00.000-07:00This pattern will likely continute well past the e...This pattern will likely continute well past the end of this year. I've justed posted <A HREF="http://real-estate-mathematics.blogspot.com" REL="nofollow">some historical charts (by county)</A> and the turning of the market started:<BR/><BR/>King/Snoh Country: Jun 05<BR/>Skagit/Mason: Oct 04<BR/>Pierce: Feb 04<BR/>The trend (with minor monthly hiccups) look like it's going to keep getting worst.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1155270328878880032006-08-10T21:25:00.000-07:002006-08-10T21:25:00.000-07:00Tim,Thanks for the cool spreadsheet.Can you please...Tim,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for the cool spreadsheet.<BR/>Can you please consider adding closed sales nos in addition to prices.<BR/><BR/>Thanks<BR/>ScottAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1155070369196367892006-08-08T13:52:00.000-07:002006-08-08T13:52:00.000-07:00jcricket:"Meshugy isn't confusing the two statisti...jcricket:<BR/><BR/><I>"Meshugy isn't confusing the two statistics you speak of, since you're one of the first people to mention it. He's just posting a certain set of statistics, usually to counter what he believes are incorrectly "sourced" arguments..."</I><BR/><BR/>You're right....I <I>should</I> have said that Meshugy is making arguments that can only be made with price/sq.ft. information.<BR/><BR/>Now for meshugy:<BR/><BR/><I>"However, the MLS does provide a Closed Sales Report by Price Range and Bedroom....that clearly shows most activity is below the 500K range. Doesn't look like the upper end market is over represented at all."</I><BR/><BR/>Unless the "low-end" market starts below $500k. How do you know that it doesnt? You <B>don't</B>.<BR/><BR/>Don't you get it, man? You can't take a single point of data and extrapolate from it! Now, if you took a series of these histograms (that's what you posted -- a histogram), and looked at how they changed over time, you'd have something. Showing data from a single time-point is interesting, but ultimately useless.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1155051184271750972006-08-08T08:33:00.000-07:002006-08-08T08:33:00.000-07:00The only way to get at the difference is to get th...<I>The only way to get at the difference is to get the median closing price per square foot. You can't get that from the MLS...no matter how good you are with google.</I><BR/><BR/>Yes, you're are right, you can't get closed price per sq. ft from the MLS. But you can get it here:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://dqnews.com/ZIPWA.shtm" REL="nofollow">Seattle Area Home Sale Activity</A><BR/><BR/>It's only updated once per quarter though...<BR/><BR/>However, the MLS does provide a Closed Sales Report by Price Range and Bedroom report which I posted above. That clearly shows most activity is below the 500K range. Doesn't look like the upper end market is over represented at all.meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1155046978692475132006-08-08T07:22:00.000-07:002006-08-08T07:22:00.000-07:00The only way to get at the difference is to get th...<I> The only way to get at the difference is to get the median closing price per square foot. You can't get that from the MLS...no matter how good you are with google</I><BR/><BR/>Meshugy, isn't confusing the two statistics you speak of, since you're one of the first people to mention it. He's just posting a certain set of statistics, usually to counter what he believes are incorrectly "sourced" arguments (like when he posts statistics that show even during the slow RE market back in 1989-1991 in KC, median prices still rose). I'm not convinced that posting statistics is as interesting as discussing them, but whatever.<BR/><BR/>OTOH, you're the first person I can remember in the last month who has brought up this important distinction about sq.ft. prices, so thanks. And guess what, you can get this from the MLS. MLS has square foot data. That's how Redfin, I believe, lists the average price/sq.ft. per neighborhood on their site (you can also get it from combining KC excise tax records + property info from their web site). <BR/><BR/>I think, that median price increases/decreases are interesting barometers of the market as a whole, you're right not to solely rely on them. It's like relying on "price reductions" alone, which only tell you that there's a limit to how high you can price your house. You might still have appreciation in the face of price reductions, or few reductions but depreciation because people are starting at a lower price point.<BR/><BR/>The combination of rising inventory, decreasing sales, a decrease in the growth of median prices all point to a slowing market. <BR/><BR/>Some here believe those statistics are the beginning of a massive price drop trend. Others believe (meshugy) the market will flatten for a while and then rise again. I'm not making any bets, but I'm certainly not convinced we're all headed towards certain economic doom. <BR/><BR/>And really, I'm surprised that people are so shocked that the NAR and other realtors generally stay bullish on real estate. It's like expecting Microsoft or Amazon to "give up" and admit defeat during the annual shareholder meeting if they have a bad year - or lose some marketshare.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1155032814403257772006-08-08T03:26:00.000-07:002006-08-08T03:26:00.000-07:00I'm sick and tired of seeing you confuse median cl...I'm sick and tired of seeing you confuse median closing prices with median closing prices <I>per square foot</I>, Meshugy.<BR/><BR/>A rising median closing price can be caused by one of two phenomena:<BR/><BR/>1) Prices for every property are rising.<BR/><BR/>or<BR/><BR/>2) More expensive homes are selling, while the low-end market slows.<BR/><BR/>The only way to get at the difference is to get the median closing price per square foot. You can't get that from the MLS...no matter how good you are with google.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1155012654590090672006-08-07T21:50:00.000-07:002006-08-07T21:50:00.000-07:00Looking for house to rent. Observations:1) More an...Looking for house to rent. Observations:<BR/><BR/>1) More and more houses coming on the rental market<BR/>2) 20 of the 25 rentals we have walked thru were bought within the last 3 years (flippers....probably)<BR/>3) The "owners" tend to be either 30ish couples who drive luxury cars (another flipper giveaway) or foreigners (Several russians, a few chinese, and 2 mid-eastern types)<BR/><BR/>As it becomes harder and harder for flippers to sell you are going to see a lot more expensive rentals coming on the market. Of course a bigger supply will result in a glut and concessions will have to be made...which means lower prices. I am already seeing the same overpriced rentals popup on Craigslist week to week. These guys just don't get it. If you list for $2400/mo (1 year lease) and nobody bites for a month, you just ate $2400 by being greedy. Predictably the higher rentals are now relisted with "new price". <BR/><BR/>Greed is good.....Ivan Boesky (who ended up in jail...well ok....Club Fed)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1155008984900094652006-08-07T20:49:00.000-07:002006-08-07T20:49:00.000-07:00Anon 5:09 left a link up there that i'm pretty sur...Anon 5:09 left a link up there that i'm pretty sure is the article where REALTORS are talking about the cooling Seattle market.<BR/><BR/>So can we finally stop arguing about whether seattle is different or not?<BR/><BR/>It's official. the experts have spoken.<BR/><BR/>Honestly, everybody's talking about the benengenbreth site when median's going up every month. now that it's stalled for the past 3 or 4 months, not a word.<BR/><BR/>WA is # 6 in the country with funky loans. but maybe we won't have many foreclosures here!<BR/><BR/>Price Reductions around 30%, but it's a hot market.<BR/><BR/>None of that mattered.<BR/><BR/>But now local realtors are admitting the truth.<BR/><BR/>Is that enough for you or do we still need to beat a dead horse about how "different" seattle is?<BR/><BR/><BR/><BR/>Again,Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1155007893429778042006-08-07T20:31:00.000-07:002006-08-07T20:31:00.000-07:00Seattle real estate is becoming a game of musical ...Seattle real estate is becoming a game of musical chairs. The music is going to to stop soon and instead of 1 empty chair there will be thousands of screwed homebuyers. <BR/><BR/>Another analogy is a game of chicken. Who will blink first, sellers or buyers. I think the buyers are going to hold off for fear of holding the bag at the end of the bubble.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1155007603590329012006-08-07T20:26:00.000-07:002006-08-07T20:26:00.000-07:00Meshugy, used to love you, but come on man, show s...Meshugy, used to love you, but come on man, show some grace. Post your links if you think have inside info. Admit when Tim makes a good point (re: listings up in Ballard). Pursue objectivity!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1155000982686453402006-08-07T18:36:00.000-07:002006-08-07T18:36:00.000-07:00I just checked the MOM #s for Ballard...it went up...I just checked the MOM #s for Ballard...it went up just short of 20K in one month! The closed res/condo median ballard now stands at $439K. <BR/><BR/><BR/>Just wait until Ballard becomes its own city. Then we could really see its value.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1155000681983105882006-08-07T18:31:00.000-07:002006-08-07T18:31:00.000-07:00But isn't the real important variable how many spe...<I>But isn't the real important variable how many speculators are actually part of the Seattle market?</I><BR/><BR/>A year ago or so, it was estimated to be around 25%, don't have the source of that stat, including second homes and trustafarian kids and their boomer parents...Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1154999250136912502006-08-07T18:07:00.000-07:002006-08-07T18:07:00.000-07:00Absoltuely not! Again, this Seattle's different no...<I>Absoltuely not! Again, this Seattle's different nonesense is tiring, why?</I><BR/><BR/>Right, while my points were incomplete, I think it's important to see this as a process, vs. a "fixed reality." Marin considers itself <I>so special</I>, but it's happening here.marine_explorerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03092782038855356359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1154998425091799402006-08-07T17:53:00.000-07:002006-08-07T17:53:00.000-07:00My town is in #4; #3 last Fall. Seattle is behind ...<I>My town is in #4; #3 last Fall. Seattle is behind that, but will it play out any differently?</I><BR/><BR/>Absoltuely not! Again, this Seattle's different nonesense is tiring, why? Because there's nothing definitive that sets us apart from all the other disparate housing bubbles in the country, personally I see more differences culture/economy-wise in cities like Boston v. Pheonix, or San Diego v. D.C. than say Marin/Bay-Area and Seattle... all are 2006 Housing Bubbles, some have different shades than others.<BR/><BR/>The ONLY thing keeping the Seattle party going longer is the California equity-echo... refugees with similar skill-sets (Defense/Software/etc...) cashing out down south and moving north. That's it! once the party ends down south, it'll be a year here or so and uh-oh Chongo!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1154997919228068552006-08-07T17:45:00.000-07:002006-08-07T17:45:00.000-07:00Is it typical, in a speculative RE bubble, for pri...<I>Is it typical, in a speculative RE bubble, for prices to remain high, while sales start to choke and inventory builds up?</I><BR/><BR/>Increased inventory and flattening appreciation are some of the first indicators of a downturn. Whether it's in Vancouver, Texas, or LA, the boom/bust cycle plays out predictably (just my take):<BR/>1. Period of frenzied bidding and speculation. Optimism runs high for those rushing into "equity wealth".<BR/>2. Reduced affordability, and more riskier loan products are taken on to keep sales volume going. Remember that graph on where WA falls in risky loans?<BR/>3. Demand finally taps out; inventory increases while prices remain high. Confidence is still high that prices will continue up, although at a slower pace.<BR/>4. Inventory continues building, small price reductions prevalent, and confidence starts to wane. Investors get worried and defensive.<BR/>5. Market instability is all too obvious. Price pressure is downward, but sticky downward, taking years to find equalization.<BR/><BR/>My town is in #4; #3 last Fall. Seattle is behind that, but will it play out any differently?marine_explorerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03092782038855356359noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1154997860968021302006-08-07T17:44:00.000-07:002006-08-07T17:44:00.000-07:00The Bellevue MLS data seems very odd. The number o...The Bellevue MLS data seems very odd. The number of active listings in all categories is down YoY. However, the number of sales is down, and the number of pending sales is WAY down. Days on market is also up somewhat from last year (although not by a huge amount).<BR/><BR/>This seems to be quite anomalous from what is happening in other regions. Normally inventory seems to increase at the same time that pending sales are down. But here we are seeing listing go down, just as pending sales are going down.<BR/><BR/>Strange...Surkanstancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04585126606657293898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1154996512835420392006-08-07T17:21:00.000-07:002006-08-07T17:21:00.000-07:00So it would appear that inventory in Ballard is ac...<I>So it would appear that inventory in Ballard is actually increasing slightly faster than King County as a whole.</I><BR/><BR/>But the closed res/condo median price shot up 20K MOM! That's good for YOY...but it happened in one month. So even if there's more for sale, it's not enough to cause appreciation to slow.<BR/><BR/>There's no doubt inventory is increasing in every part of Seattle. But is it enough to cause a decline in prices? Apparently not...despite higher #s then 2005, we still have very low inventory.<BR/><BR/>July 2004, there were 350 res homes for sale in Ballard. July 2003 had 369, July 2002 had 414....<BR/><BR/>so 347 is still pretty low...hence the big price gains.meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1154995762640763402006-08-07T17:09:00.000-07:002006-08-07T17:09:00.000-07:00http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/20...<A HREF="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2003181723_webhomes07.html" REL="nofollow">http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2003181723_webhomes07.html</A>Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1154994682034097232006-08-07T16:51:00.001-07:002006-08-07T16:51:00.001-07:0083 was just the number of sfh properties that were...83 was just the number of sfh properties that were within the little window of Ballard that I zoomed in on in that screenshot. As I am sure you are aware (since it is in <A HREF="http://www.nwmls.com/discover/library/statistics/countyprint/printking.pdf" REL="nofollow">the link you posted</A> in the weekend open thread), area 705 had 347 total active "res. only" listings at the end of July, a 26.6% increase from last year. <BR/> <BR/>So it would appear that inventory in Ballard is actually increasing slightly <I>faster</I> than King County as a whole.The Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1154994680655341522006-08-07T16:51:00.000-07:002006-08-07T16:51:00.000-07:00I see that inventory is slowly creeping up in my a...I see that inventory is slowly creeping up in my area on the Eastside. I've been watching the listings on ZipRealty.com for 98008 all year, and I see we are up to 70 actives today. It was only back in May that we were in the 40 range. Not that this is a sign of a crash or anything.<BR/><BR/>Also, I do a bike ride around lake Sammamish every week-end, and I notice a lot of for sale signs. There are quite a few for-sale-by-owner signs too. I've also noticed how construction around the lake has been on a tear for the a number of years now. Just this week-end I saw dozens of home in various degrees of construction.<BR/><BR/>Who says there is a shortage of home building in the Puget Sound?Surkanstancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04585126606657293898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1154991291189777172006-08-07T15:54:00.000-07:002006-08-07T15:54:00.000-07:00Ballard is a veritable listings desert. Practicall...<I>Ballard is a veritable listings desert. Practically nothing for sale.</I><BR/><BR/>83 properties is nothing for Ballard...remeber that Ballard is the biggest area in N. Seattle. 83 is very, very little.<BR/><BR/>In July there were 251 closed Res/Condo sales in Ballard.meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1154991006606345242006-08-07T15:50:00.000-07:002006-08-07T15:50:00.000-07:00You can start your own blog, apparently it's not h...<I>You can start your own blog, apparently it's not hard</I><BR/><BR/>Perhaps that's not a bad idea--if your posts account for 1/3 of the bandwidth of this thread.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1154989582426468982006-08-07T15:26:00.000-07:002006-08-07T15:26:00.000-07:00Haha! That reminds me of the following Seinfeld......Haha! That reminds me of the following Seinfeld...<BR/><BR/><B>KRAMER</B>: Oh Tuscany huh? Hear that Jerry? That's in Italy.<BR/><BR/><B>JERRY</B>: I hear it's ah beautiful there.<BR/><BR/><B>MAESTRO</B>: Well if you're thinking of getting a place there don't bother. There's really nothing available.<BR/><BR/><B>JERRY:</B> (Surprised) Huh?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1154989199550040882006-08-07T15:19:00.000-07:002006-08-07T15:19:00.000-07:00Ballard is a veritable listings desert. Practical...Ballard is a veritable listings <I>desert</I>. Practically <A HREF="http://timothyellis.googlepages.com/sfh_4sale_ballard.png" REL="nofollow"><I>nothing</I></A> for sale.The Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1154987946445110042006-08-07T14:59:00.000-07:002006-08-07T14:59:00.000-07:00Still, you'd have to see a lot more activity in th...<I>Still, you'd have to see a lot more activity in the higher end to justify your theory.</I><BR/><BR/>Hmm... Well, I'm gonna hasten a bet that the glut of 200K-400K houses are being bought outside the Seattle Metro Area. Last time I checked Shelton wasn't seeing any McMansion developments to speak of, and from this article Oly's cooling quite a bit. So if you pull those numbers out of your 17 county amalgam, it sure looks like a lot of activitie's goin' on on the high end of the market. Call me crazy but if 400K+ is the high end in San Diego, it sure as heck would be considered the high end in Sea-town, considering their median's a good 100K above ours.<BR/><BR/><I>Driving around, for sale signs for single family homes are hard to find in N.Seattle. </I><BR/><BR/>Whatever, you keep pulling this dead rabbit out of the hat over and over. I live off of 3rd St. near Market, 4-sale signs are everywhere dude.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com