tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post115999741474214902..comments2023-10-08T06:24:07.089-07:00Comments on Seattle Bubble: Demand Down, Supply Up, Prices DipThe Timhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1160059888760515512006-10-05T07:51:00.000-07:002006-10-05T07:51:00.000-07:00flopfolder, I agree. That's why I made sure to p...flopfolder, <BR/> <BR/>I agree. That's why I made sure to point out that these kinds of trends in September are not an uncommon occurrence. This drop is larger than most others have been, but I don't intend to make a big deal about price stagnation or drops until/unless it happens in the spring. <BR/> <BR/>What's most interesting to me now is the surging inventory and plummeting sales.The Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1160022982564616972006-10-04T21:36:00.000-07:002006-10-04T21:36:00.000-07:00Alan, you are in luck. The spreadsheet contains j...Alan, you are in luck. The spreadsheet contains just what you're looking for. It's the second graph (the percent change from year to year), with the percent change in the median plotted on a second y-axis on the right-side. The page in the spreadsheet is titled "S&D % w Median" and in fact it's the page the spreadsheet should open to by default. If for some reason you can't or don't want to use Excel, <A HREF="http://timothyellis.googlepages.com/supply_demand_with_median_pct_2006.09.png" REL="nofollow">here's a snapshot</A>.The Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1160022413713638302006-10-04T21:26:00.000-07:002006-10-04T21:26:00.000-07:00I would love to see some sort of pricing graph sup...I would love to see some sort of pricing graph superimposed over the supply/demand curve.Alanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05660201775008638301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1160006083072807592006-10-04T16:54:00.000-07:002006-10-04T16:54:00.000-07:00I'm not suprised to see the inventory numbers. My ...I'm not suprised to see the inventory numbers. My anecdotal observations on the eastside have reflected this. On the way home from work yesterday I counted "for sale" signs for houses actually on the road I drive, not side streets. For the 3 mile residential route, the grand total was eight houses for sale, one with a "sold" placcard. That does <B>not</B> count the new subdivision being built apparently on spec near work, with room for probably 8-10 McMansions "from the $1M!".Shadowedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02275066426135302508noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1160005180446938632006-10-04T16:39:00.000-07:002006-10-04T16:39:00.000-07:00this is it, Seattle is not different. it's doing ...this is it, Seattle is not different. it's doing what the rest of the US was doing in 05john_law_the_IIhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14231101798981208231noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1160002400751502962006-10-04T15:53:00.000-07:002006-10-04T15:53:00.000-07:00Wow, did not expect a price drop for months. It is...Wow, did not expect a price drop for months. It is the highest Sept inventory for King SFH since Sept 2003. The biggest indicator after the price is the pending sales drop YoY of -20.59%<BR/><BR/>Tim, Thanks for the actual pdf data and analysis.<BR/><BR/>AmitAmithttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15305632035950244999noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1159999850871367502006-10-04T15:10:00.000-07:002006-10-04T15:10:00.000-07:00I predict that the local papers will focus most of...<I>I predict that the local papers will focus most of their articles on the fact that there is "still double-digit appreciation," </I><BR/><BR/>I concur there Tim. You can spin stats any which way but loose, and the "still strong" housing market mantras followed up by "robust job-growth, blah, blah, blah" will be the stock quotes of the day. I'm sure we'll hear the typical "While the rest of the country..." and "we've managed to escape the worst of it..." nonesense. The thing is, I've noticed Seattle press is about 1/2 yr. to a full yr. behind the curve. We're currently hearing the "soft landing" arguement, something the national press has long since abandoned.<BR/><BR/>But again, if you look at numbers, you can get the YOY camel hump affect. YOY, while a decent timelime for real estate in long term doesn't capture mid-year surges. Prices can be crashing, but a YOY +% increase won't capture the plummeting affect. Who knows, prices may've been up 30% YOY just last month, but you wouldn't know it...Matt Rivetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06410253453923145045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1159997790316673532006-10-04T14:36:00.000-07:002006-10-04T14:36:00.000-07:00Let's play "Predict the Spin" I predict that the ...Let's play "Predict the Spin" <BR/> <BR/>I predict that the local papers will focus most of their articles on the fact that there is "still double-digit appreciation," and that they will claim that any signs of a slowdown are merely standard seasonal slowing. <BR/> <BR/>I hope to be proven wrong.The Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.com