tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post116063325953595132..comments2023-10-08T06:24:07.089-07:00Comments on Seattle Bubble: Let's Talk InventoryThe Timhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.comBlogger9125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1160684779213197532006-10-12T13:26:00.000-07:002006-10-12T13:26:00.000-07:00Mine comes from the fact I rent a house in Lake Hi...Mine comes from the fact I rent a house in Lake Hills. =)Shadowedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02275066426135302508noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1160683563984065192006-10-12T13:06:00.000-07:002006-10-12T13:06:00.000-07:00No problem.In case anyone is wondering, Eleua is t...No problem.<BR/><BR/>In case anyone is wondering, Eleua is the name I adopted for my on-line persona.<BR/><BR/>It is Hawaiian (as I'm a big multi-culturalist), and the meaning goes like this:<BR/><BR/>Hawaii has a lot of rain. It is the wettest state in the nation, and is home to two of the three rainiest places on earth. Not surprisingly, the Hawaiians have 56 words for rain. <BR/><BR/>I grew up in the PNW, and Hawaii is my adopted home away from home (I lived there for almost 4 years). Rain is my favorite meteorological phenomena. I love the rain.<BR/><BR/>Well, given that I'm sort of a pessimist on this, and other forums, I wanted something to reflect that.<BR/><BR/>"Ua" is the root word for "rain in Hawaiian, and "Ele" is Hawaiian for black/darkness. Eleua means "the darkness of rain", or what we would call in English, "Blackcloud."<BR/><BR/>Kilinahe is my other persona (when I want to be an optimist), as that is translated to "refreshing, life giving rain." That's what I call Mrs. E.<BR/><BR/>Just a little boring trivia, lest anyone wonder where that name came from.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1160678104245821402006-10-12T11:35:00.000-07:002006-10-12T11:35:00.000-07:00Flopfolder,Inflation does not necessarily mean tha...Flopfolder,<BR/><BR/>Inflation does not necessarily mean that homes go up in price. <BR/><BR/>Inflation in WAGES/SALARIES will drive home prices up, provided other necessities track at, or below that rate.<BR/><BR/>If there is inflation, but your wages are stagnant (thank you, globalism), you have the same amount of money, but more of that money has to go for food, energy, medicine, and other basics.<BR/><BR/>This puts a DOWNWARD pressure on homes - especially as interest rates rise to combat inflation.<BR/><BR/>It is very possible that inflation will actually hurt home prices.<BR/><BR/>The past few years has seen commodities rise in cost, while incomes stagnated. This is counter to the trend that followed WW2.<BR/><BR/>Yes, it is different this time.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1160677843019916372006-10-12T11:30:00.000-07:002006-10-12T11:30:00.000-07:00I think Peter Taylor has just answered the Trillio...I think Peter Taylor has just answered the Trillion Dollar Question.<BR/><BR/>There is NO WAY that, absent an active equity escalator, people have the necessary 20%+ down payment to afford homes at even half their current price - especially in an environment of rising interest rates.<BR/><BR/>NO WAY!<BR/><BR/>At the end of the day, houses will be worth what people can afford.<BR/><BR/>Most people have to HELOC or defer payments on their plasma TV. Just how are they going to magically come up with $40K-$100K for the down payment on a home?<BR/><BR/>IF YOU DO HAVE that kind of money, just think about just how many sellers will line up to kiss your butt to buy their home.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1160675355886038672006-10-12T10:49:00.000-07:002006-10-12T10:49:00.000-07:00Is this analysis single-family homes only, or SFH+...<I>Is this analysis single-family homes only, or SFH+condo?</I> <BR/> <BR/>Except for the table at the end, all the numbers above are for SFH + Condo for King, Snohomish, and N. Pierce. I used this as the metric since that's the only data I have available pre-2000. Personally I'm most interested in the King County SFH market.The Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1160674384488722202006-10-12T10:33:00.000-07:002006-10-12T10:33:00.000-07:00Stephen said: With the current interest rate, that...Stephen said:<BR/><BR/><I> With the current interest rate, that's the magic payment for those who have to put 2 incomes together to get into six figures, and the 100k twenty-somethings posters aside, that's the bulk of the folks in this area. </I><BR/><BR/>I completely agree.<BR/><BR/>Interests rates are just as big of a factor in home prices as inventory.<BR/><BR/>When a household with a combined income of 100k can get a mortgage for a $400k house, most will do it.<BR/><BR/>I'm more an more convinced that this whole phenomenon is a credit bubble.Nolaguyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10840937821204590350noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1160672324106114452006-10-12T09:58:00.000-07:002006-10-12T09:58:00.000-07:00Yay, some numbers! Thanks for something worthwhile...Yay, some numbers! Thanks for something worthwhile to chew on.<BR/><BR/>Is this analysis single-family homes only, or SFH+condo?<BR/><BR/>Seems like condo build-out and conversion is a significant differentiator between mid-90s and today. I'd guess that inventory will go higher this time around.SourMashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17048719626884169469noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1160667316944703542006-10-12T08:35:00.000-07:002006-10-12T08:35:00.000-07:00It's interesting how the statistics and personal o...It's interesting how the statistics and personal observations don't always match up. I've been tracking listings for my zip (in East Bellevue) for about a year, and although the number of listings is WAY up from early this year (just over 40 in April) we have been hovering in the low 80s for weeks now. However, anecdotally I have been seeing lots of for-sale signs in my neck of the woods. I wrote on an earlier thread about the huge number of for sale signs I saw behind the Crossroads mall this week.<BR/><BR/>By the way, early this week we had some wild fluctuations on ziprealty. We dropped from 86 listings down to 75, and now we are back up over 80. I can't recall seeing that kind of day-to-day fluctuation on ziprealty in this last year.Surkanstancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04585126606657293898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-1160663460134655802006-10-12T07:31:00.000-07:002006-10-12T07:31:00.000-07:00Nice post Tim, I've always been a believer in numb...Nice post Tim, I've always been a believer in numbers, trend analysis correlation prediction, etctera... none of this "Well boomers are moving into the city" nonesense we hear regarding causes for sellers/buyers trends...<BR/><BR/>I'd say, yes, it looks like the buyers markets of the mid 90's was a true benchmark. But one thing that's impossible to measure, which I call the "Shiller quotient" is the psychology of the 'mania'. <BR/><BR/>If psychology turns against this market, like it has been in the past months, nationwide. We could be seeing a panic-scenario not seen in previous markets. I'm sure during the tech-stock slide of 01' there were a few 'diamonds in the rough' kick-ass stocks that happened to have .com at the end of their corporate title with working business models and a potential for profit. But psychology doomed all that.<BR/><BR/>Once people get it in their head Real Estate is a boat anchor and 'toxic' ala 'toxic loans' etcetera... it will turn a corner and act as an accelerator to an already listing market.<BR/><BR/>Again, nice work TimMatt Rivetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06410253453923145045noreply@blogger.com