tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post211317622440775844..comments2023-10-08T06:24:07.089-07:00Comments on Seattle Bubble: Seattle Immune to Financing Woes?The Timhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.comBlogger63125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-52377050836792617842007-03-20T15:30:00.000-07:002007-03-20T15:30:00.000-07:00I find it interesting that the word "mortgage" lit...I find it interesting that the word <A HREF="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mortgage" REL="nofollow">"mortgage"</A> literally means "death vow" or a "dead pledge".Trickshothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05612758585509150146noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-89878481111707116222007-03-20T15:28:00.000-07:002007-03-20T15:28:00.000-07:00This comment has been removed by the author.Trickshothttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05612758585509150146noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-9917446498109080522007-03-20T12:44:00.000-07:002007-03-20T12:44:00.000-07:00Shugy-shugarama, It certainly is plausible. or ev...Shugy-shugarama, It certainly is plausible. or even 14,000 sfh and condos. wouldn't count that out as a possiblity. <BR/>Ain't predicting it though. I don't know what is gonna happen except that values will go down eventually.The Klondikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07641020238476061731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-85756302180831118982007-03-20T09:09:00.000-07:002007-03-20T09:09:00.000-07:00SFH & Condo inventory June 05 = 12,275I was only t...<I>SFH & Condo inventory June 05 = 12,275</I><BR/><BR/>I was only talking about SFH, not condos.<BR/><BR/>Are you prediciting over 12,000 SFH in June 07?meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-72108182256457025742007-03-20T06:30:00.000-07:002007-03-20T06:30:00.000-07:00Shugmeister, Dude!"That would be the highest on re...Shugmeister, Dude!<BR/>"That would be the highest on record....at least since 2000. But if sales were up it wouldn't matter."<BR/><BR/>SFH & Condo inventory June 05 = 12,275<BR/><BR/>"current inventory is among the very lowest for February over the last 7 years"<BR/><BR/>Current sfh& condo inventory is higher than the two previous years.<BR/><BR/>And as I posted week, since the peak price in October 2006, asking prices have dropped by 2.3-2.8 percentThe Klondikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07641020238476061731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-86482992330431899412007-03-20T06:13:00.000-07:002007-03-20T06:13:00.000-07:00Tai,I certainly understand you train of thought. ...Tai,<BR/>I certainly understand you train of thought. I had that train of thought as well in the neighborhood I lived in in San Diego. I thought due to the location, views, schools, homes etc, Mission Hills San Diego would be immune to any decline. People in La jolla and fairbanks ranch thought the same. Fairbanks Ranch BTW is the most expensive and most affluent neighborhood in the united states.<BR/>No, I wont be able to afford a Fairbanks ranch home....ever, but is has been affected.<BR/><BR/>It doesn't matter the neighborhood, when you have drastic inflated rises in value, you also have deflation at some point in time. That being said, I had stated in the past that the high end is often less affected, because these are the people who aren't affected by the economy as much and can plunk down a million without thinking twice.<BR/><BR/>This is not the area of discussion on this blog. the whole point is that with lending standards tightening, over-inflated rises in values, etc...90% of sellers and buyers will be affected with overall value declines.The Klondikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07641020238476061731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-81644661846289206352007-03-20T00:26:00.000-07:002007-03-20T00:26:00.000-07:00Tai,I don't know which planet you're from, but han...Tai,<BR/><BR/>I don't know which planet you're from, but hang out a while till you get to know all of us... before thinking we're all a bunch of poor losers renting their lives away... I own but that doesn't make me different from the renters... I'd sooner be renting actually... (SLTO)<BR/><BR/>that said I probably can't afford that vuecrest home that's asking for 1.5mil right now but 2 years ago when it sold for 800K I definitely could... can you? <BR/><BR/>actually I don't care... and if you live in vuecrest, the value of the neighborhood for me just went down... nothing worse than snotty neighbors are snotty neighbors who think just coz they have a bigger HELOC, they're better than you...<BR/><BR/>as to your question, I don't know bellevue and don't care for the traffic in the area... thankfully my work will never bring me there 99% of the time...<BR/><BR/>But true, Medina won't get hit by the bubble (at least not obviously), multi-million dollar homes are a whole different market that represents a small niche... there's no point in discussing them IMHO...SLTO Trollhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12410479839387047371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-87214897206402998982007-03-19T23:37:00.000-07:002007-03-19T23:37:00.000-07:00What's with the "think they can afford" BS? Is th...What's with the "think they can afford" BS? Is this really about you avoiding the unwashed masses?<BR/><BR/>Yes, I am OBVIOUSLY not from your stick-up-the-ass part of town.refractedthoughthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03103011487719993293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-39219858488101335142007-03-19T23:30:00.000-07:002007-03-19T23:30:00.000-07:00Can anyone that actually know the market put up an...Can anyone that actually know the market put up an argument about 520? These bubble bursting trolls actually think they can afford Vuecrest even at 20% off?Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00367942847529038943noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-46853154261321504972007-03-19T23:28:00.001-07:002007-03-19T23:28:00.001-07:00refractedthoughts, you're OBVIOUSLY not from the E...refractedthoughts, you're OBVIOUSLY not from the Eastside.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00367942847529038943noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-47866592724411148922007-03-19T23:28:00.000-07:002007-03-19T23:28:00.000-07:00real estate is very local and we could argue all d...real estate is very local and we could argue all day how one street will appreciate and 2 blocks away is going down... <BR/><BR/>but the bottom line is when the neighbors 2 blocks away start to foreclose and their property values drop, eventually (and it may take a while) those comps will cause the zip code to drop value...<BR/><BR/>but real estate is still very local... so if you believe you've found the perfect neighborhood, go put your money where your mouth is and buy that vuecrest home...<BR/><BR/>then I'll buy it from you in a few years at a discount...SLTO Trollhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12410479839387047371noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-65938160584975266602007-03-19T23:27:00.000-07:002007-03-19T23:27:00.000-07:00Bellevue has perhaps the BEST public school distri...Bellevue has perhaps the BEST public school district in the country according to Newsweek, along with millions and millions of dollars pouring in to develop its high-end commercial district. <BR/><BR/>Clyde Hill and Medina...it's like saying Beverly Hills would crash in the bubble.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00367942847529038943noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-54968037721542320292007-03-19T23:26:00.000-07:002007-03-19T23:26:00.000-07:00Active listings went from 165 to 156. Closed sale...Active listings went from 165 to 156. Closed sales went from 51 to 25. The numbers don't seem to jive with your theory. But maybe I just don't understand how special 520 is.refractedthoughthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03103011487719993293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-90007641414362035242007-03-19T23:16:00.000-07:002007-03-19T23:16:00.000-07:00Pairing it with lower active listing from YOY, it ...Pairing it with lower active listing from YOY, it could simply represent a higher demand than supplies, which is true if you know anything about that market at all.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00367942847529038943noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-59407375032623699832007-03-19T22:55:00.000-07:002007-03-19T22:55:00.000-07:00Wow, 520 had a 50% drop in closed sales. That doe...Wow, 520 had a 50% drop in closed sales. That doesn't look very stable to me at all. In fact, the median sale price is a useless metric paired with a drop like that.<BR/><BR/>I was going to say "alright, let's see what it looks like three months from now," but it already looks bad.refractedthoughthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03103011487719993293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-83424889410809469052007-03-19T22:46:00.000-07:002007-03-19T22:46:00.000-07:00Denial? How about cold facts:http://timothyellis.g...Denial? How about cold facts:<BR/><BR/>http://timothyellis.googlepages.com/nwmlskingcountybreakouts02.02-present<BR/><BR/>Look up 520, which represents West Bellevue/Clyde Hill. Look at appreciation, active listing, pending sales and closed sales.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00367942847529038943noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-70763749213510838082007-03-19T22:41:00.000-07:002007-03-19T22:41:00.000-07:00My god, the denial I'm seeing is hysterical. I'm ...My god, the denial I'm seeing is hysterical. I'm laughing out loud here.<BR/><BR/>Don't you guys understand. Seattle is <I>SPECIAL</I>!!!refractedthoughthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03103011487719993293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-76806627005812142412007-03-19T22:28:00.000-07:002007-03-19T22:28:00.000-07:00I can't comment on San Diego, because quite honest...I can't comment on San Diego, because quite honestly I don't know San Diego. However, I used Vuecrest and it is a great local example. If you can find a specific example of a neighborhood in San Diego that resembles Vuecrest, I would like to see that. <BR/><BR/>Like I mentioned, you guys are jumping all over the map using one house in one neighborhood and referencing it on another neighborhood and its market. I hightly doubt that Vuecrest can ever burst with more than 10% drop. The neighborhood has a waitlist of people trying to get in, how can such neighborhood be bursting in bubble. <BR/><BR/>My suggestion is simply, map out the neighborhood of KC or other areas if you like, and identify each neighborhood and predict its possibility of bursting. Then we can argue using the houses from that neighborhood. Bellevue, Clyde Hill and Medina simply do not fit in the argument you guys are presenting in this blog.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00367942847529038943noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-13835684924526754692007-03-19T22:18:00.000-07:002007-03-19T22:18:00.000-07:00Shugy, By June, You will have 100% more inventory....<I>Shugy, By June, You will have 100% more inventory.</I><BR/><BR/>100% inventory in of itself won't matter. Current inventory is 6,124 ...so you're predicting 12,248 listings by June. That would be the highest on record....at least since 2000. But if sales were up it wouldn't matter.<BR/><BR/>So you're predicting 12,248 by June and also a major double digit drop in YOY sales?<BR/><BR/>BTW, current inventory is among the very lowest for February over the last 7 years. The lowest was Feb 2006: 4,999 listings. Nearly every other Feb over the last seven years was higher..as high as 8,358 listings in Feb 2003. So we still have very, very low inventory.meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-41378052484282876962007-03-19T22:04:00.000-07:002007-03-19T22:04:00.000-07:00Tai,I don't need to give you a what if. I watched...Tai,<BR/>I don't need to give you a what if. I watched it happen in a matter of a couple of months in one of the nicest neighborhoods in San Diego. AND it didn't have the catalyst of a credit crunch. I watched a million dollar house dwindle to a 750K house. Who bought that home? A prime borrower. I can see a house that originally listed at 975.00 now on the market for 800K and has been sitting for a year. Very nice home. Zestimate on the home? 1.2 Mil. You can check out La Jolla, Ritzy homes at 500K less than what they originally listed for of 1.5-2.5million. Nobody here is saying you will get 1.5Million dollar home for 350K, but they are all affected.The Klondikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07641020238476061731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-70582459412944176012007-03-19T21:54:00.000-07:002007-03-19T21:54:00.000-07:00Shugy, By June, You will have 100% more inventory...Shugy, By June, You will have 100% more inventory. And a lot less capable buyers than what you have now. I am so glad you are finally catching on and becoming a bubble head.The Klondikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07641020238476061731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-66788989826867266162007-03-19T21:47:00.000-07:002007-03-19T21:47:00.000-07:00Let's all declare who we are please:a) rentersb) h...Let's all declare who we are please:<BR/><BR/>a) renters<BR/>b) home owners<BR/>c) real estate agents<BR/><BR/>Let's all make a simple forecast. <BR/><BR/>1) Will there be a Fed interest rate hike anytime soon?<BR/><BR/>2) When will we see signs of a dip in the Seattle market? Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 2007/08/09/10/11?<BR/><BR/>3) What is the scale of that dip?<BR/><BR/><BR/>-----------------------<BR/><BR/>I am a renter. I'm actually looking to buy a house right now. Why? I just want to own my own house. I hate moving, I want to settle down. Don't expect it to appreciate.<BR/><BR/>I predict a dip in Q3/4 2008. But it'll only go down to 2001/2 levels. As a potential homeowner, I won't care since I intend to keep it for at least 10 years.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17323869062361798222noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-65689419589848659642007-03-19T21:14:00.000-07:002007-03-19T21:14:00.000-07:00you only need a slight drop in purchasers to have ...<I>you only need a slight drop in purchasers to have a BIG change in pricing.</I><BR/><BR/>Hi Mikhail,<BR/><BR/>That's not really true in the Seattle market...take a look at the records:<BR/><BR/>In Feb 2001 there were 1861 pending sales...that over 20% less the Feb 2007 pending sales, yet prices were still going up despite over 20% less buyers.<BR/><BR/>It's going to take over 100% more inventory and over 50% less buyers to really see some price drops. Since that isn't likely anytime soon...it should be smooth sailing for the next few years.meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-51507814161209689462007-03-19T20:58:00.000-07:002007-03-19T20:58:00.000-07:00Tai....It might be the straw that breaks the camel...Tai....It might be the straw that breaks the camel's back. One never knows.<BR/><BR/>Real markets are driven by supply and demand. Speculative markets are driven by fear and greed. The real estate market has gone far from a normal supply and demand market. Seattle has avoided so far what is happening across most of the US. Markets that break last are typically dramatic movers in the opposite direction while they play catch up to the rest.<BR/><BR/>Housing is somewhat different because it is buffered by the slow speed that transactions take place because most residences are occupied. Foreclosures and sales take time. Zillow would have you believe that your house is changing value everyday like the stockmarket does. Your house doesn't. This slowness just means that when the direction changes it will last for a very long time.<BR/><BR/>1. Remember ALL markets are based on the greater fool theory. Someone is the last one to buy at every top. Perhaps it is your example in Vuecrest. 2. When the tide turns it is not very obvious to most. The moaning and screaming of the media comes later towards the bottom, not the top. 3. The masses(homeowners and investors) are lemmings. They will never see the cliff as they jump up for the last time into the market abyss. 4,5&6. repeat number three(The masses(homeowners and investors) are lemmings. They will never see the cliff as they jump up for the last time into the market abyss.)Pegasushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11307734411796085247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-69334943267955562442007-03-19T20:51:00.000-07:002007-03-19T20:51:00.000-07:00Tai,I'll pose another scenario: if 20% of the buye...Tai,<BR/><BR/>I'll pose another scenario: if 20% of the buyers in the Puget Sound vanished overnight, would that have any impact on over-all housing prices?<BR/><BR/>Let's even say that those 20% of buyers were just at the lower end of the market. Sure, they wouldn't be the ones looking to buy a home in posh Bellevue neighbourhoods, but if the starter home markets in Bothel and Kent crashed, then there would be fewer people able to cash in on their homes and upgrade to nice areas of Bellevue.<BR/><BR/>The way I see it, the people who have been getting exotic mortgages in the last few years have only been doing so because they can't really afford the homes they are buying. If the lending industry ceases to offer these products it HAS to have a huge impact on the Puget Sound real-estate market.<BR/><BR/>It's not a matter of what percentage of homes have these dodgy mortgage products, what matters is the percentage of buyers who rely on such products in order to buy at all. Don't forget that prices are set at the margins: you only need a slight drop in purchasers to have a BIG change in pricing.Surkanstancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04585126606657293898noreply@blogger.com