tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post3903958978276507770..comments2023-10-08T06:24:07.089-07:00Comments on Seattle Bubble: 02.01.2007 - Thursday Open ThreadThe Timhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.comBlogger8125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-67583719085492252672007-02-01T14:44:00.000-08:002007-02-01T14:44:00.000-08:00"Could you think of a scenerio where a strong job ...<I>"Could you think of a scenerio where a strong job market would be bad for the housing market?"</i><br /><br />Logic never dies: it only gets tortured.<br /><br />Proving that a strong job market implies a strong housing market (which you can't do with an appeal to ignorance, BTW) does not prove that <b>this</b> housing market is caused by a strong job market. AKA: "Affirming the Consequent". Logical fallacies 101.MisterBubblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01317437260649857132noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-80544222073836821132007-02-01T13:42:00.000-08:002007-02-01T13:42:00.000-08:00disgruntled,
Your example assumes that no other n...disgruntled,<br /><br />Your example assumes that no other negative economic fallout occurs with a 30% reduction.<br /><br />I would submit that if RE moved backwards by any significant amount, the economic fallout would accelerate and deepen the pain. Depending on your priorities, buying at 30% could be catching a falling knife.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-30443528840838647072007-02-01T11:32:00.000-08:002007-02-01T11:32:00.000-08:00If you had the opportunity to buy something brand ...If you had the opportunity to buy something brand new today at an 22-27% discount from very recent comparables (depending on which comps you pick). Would that be good enough? <br /><br />Assuming you could make the payments with no problem, and it would be built to your specs.Unknownhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07614301472202958238noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-48277368044674521292007-02-01T11:15:00.000-08:002007-02-01T11:15:00.000-08:00Could you think of a scenerio where a strong job m...<em>Could you think of a scenerio where a strong job market would be bad for the housing market?</em><br /><br />How about a paper factory moving into a vacation resort area?Alanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05660201775008638301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-22765970398454856772007-02-01T10:58:00.000-08:002007-02-01T10:58:00.000-08:00Front page of section B in todays PI:
Housing tak...Front page of section B in todays PI:<br /><br /><A HREF="http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/301990_housing01.html">Housing takes a bigger bite out of people's budgets</A><br /><br />Cohen with back to back days! I'm a fan!Matthewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12639743614054159740noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-60175923371864169282007-02-01T09:25:00.000-08:002007-02-01T09:25:00.000-08:00Could you think of a scenerio where a strong job m...<i>Could you think of a scenerio where a strong job market would be bad for the housing market? </i><br /><br />I'm not looking at the touchy-feely Fox News-esque talking points reasons here, I'm looking at the quantitative affect and rational.<br /><br />Consumer A is purchasing Product B. This is the basic UNIT of transaction. If Product B changes value then inorder to insure the basic UNIT is maintained, Consumer A must change with it. Ergo, if Product B spikes in price, Consumer A must change to accomodate that change. If the basic UNIT is maintained year over year (continued strong sales), than Consumer A is modifying themselves to insure the transaction... enter creative/exotic/suicidal financing.<br /><br />And this, kaleentan, is unsustainable. Something's got to give.Matt Rivetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06410253453923145045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-43066458428796639192007-02-01T08:58:00.000-08:002007-02-01T08:58:00.000-08:00This might not be what you are looking for, but he...This might not be what you are looking for, but here is why we keep hearing about 'jobs.'<br /><br />The Lamestream Media know that it is the only argument that sounds good, and the sheeple won't bother to ask any hard questions.<br /><br />How anyone can not notice how the cash-out refi money is floating the economy, and how real estate IS the economy, is beyond me.<br /><br />My guess it has to do with what someone wants to see, rather than what they see.<br /><br />Just another unsustainable, bubblistic way of life that will end in tears, recriminations and a big lesson that doesn't get learned.<br /><br />btw, I wonder just what it will take for the US to quit referring to itself as the smartest nation on earth?Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-2105801058680175242007-02-01T08:16:00.000-08:002007-02-01T08:16:00.000-08:00From the 'Times: Fewer can afford to buy a house i...From the 'Times: <a href="http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/localnews/2003550556_housing01m0.html">Fewer can afford to buy a house in King County, report says</a><br /><br />Median incomes<br />2003: $59,200<br />2004: $60,400<br />2005: $60,700<br /><br />Median K.County Home prices<br />2003: $265,000<br />2004: $289,950<br />2005: $332,000<br /><br />Yeah... so much for 'strong job growth' saving the bubble...<br /><br />Where's the difference made up? Well purchasing power seems to still be strong, retails still humming along around the Puget Sound.<br /><br />The difference? Exotic financing, pure and simple, dicey loans, cash-out refi's, HELOC'd to the hilt.<br /><br />I still haven't a clue why the 'jobs' arguement still has legs, some one please clue me in?Matt Rivetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06410253453923145045noreply@blogger.com