tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post5035223586328103651..comments2023-10-08T06:24:07.089-07:00Comments on Seattle Bubble: 03.13.2007 - Tuesday Open ThreadThe Timhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.comBlogger48125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-69597559510857951532007-03-14T09:43:00.000-07:002007-03-14T09:43:00.000-07:00sea-hottie:"I see lower supply with increased dema...sea-hottie:<BR/>"<I>I see lower supply with increased demand, the recipe for making money.</I>"<BR/><BR/>Even if rents did go up, you wouldn't make money off of it with anything purchased in the past 3-5 years.<BR/><BR/>In any event, a quick survey of Craigslist suggests to me that rents are actually going *down*, around Bainbridge at least.refractedthoughthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03103011487719993293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-5525705354977369612007-03-14T07:22:00.000-07:002007-03-14T07:22:00.000-07:00Jilliayne:you realize we're discussing short optio...Jilliayne:<BR/><BR/>you realize we're discussing short options (put options) regarding REIC stocks and not a short sale on a home correct? Or did I miss something?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-17544406675045297752007-03-14T07:20:00.000-07:002007-03-14T07:20:00.000-07:00>Does anyone else think that the sub-prime fallout...>Does anyone else think that the sub-prime fallout is great for owners of rentals? <BR/><BR/>It's great for renters. The subprime fallout is causing the bubble to blow at a much faster rate, which will equal more foreclosures, which means more units available on the market.<BR/><BR/>There may be a temporary blip in less units available, but you'll see many more units coming on line to rent. Another inevitability: Repartments (condos converting BACK into apartments)<BR/><BR/>More supply=Cheaper rentAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-8300869545576724942007-03-14T06:42:00.000-07:002007-03-14T06:42:00.000-07:00sea-hottieUnless these renters have higher incomes...sea-hottie<BR/><BR/>Unless these renters have higher incomes, it doesn't amount to dinky-doo.<BR/><BR/>More renters - so what? <BR/>More renters with money? - significant.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-57741186302467364382007-03-14T01:55:00.000-07:002007-03-14T01:55:00.000-07:00Does anyone else think that the sub-prime fallout ...Does anyone else think that the sub-prime fallout is great for owners of rentals? It seems to me that more people that can't buy means more people that have to rent. That means fewer rentals, and combined with increased apartment-to-condo conversions I see lower supply with increased demand, the recipe for making money.seattlehottyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07745073660474374747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-17129662464967384332007-03-14T01:44:00.000-07:002007-03-14T01:44:00.000-07:00I don't care if we added 100k jobs next month. If ...<I>I don't care if we added 100k jobs next month. If they are making 60k a year they won't be buying a house, well not anymore.</I><BR/><BR/>I often see this argument, and what I think isn't obvious from the employment numbers is that for every 100 new people that move here, another doctor (or dentist, attorney, insert favorite higher paid job) is employed. So even when thousands of jobs at the lowest pay levels are created, you still get some additional upper income home purchases.seattlehottyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07745073660474374747noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-63304152396156321772007-03-14T01:18:00.000-07:002007-03-14T01:18:00.000-07:00Hi Guys,On a short sale, the lender is willing to ...Hi Guys,<BR/><BR/>On a short sale, the lender is willing to help the homeowner sell in order to avoid foreclosure....<BR/><BR/>HOWEVER, the lender also requires the homeowner to sign a brand new unsecured note at closing so the homeowner can begin to pay back the shorted amount. <BR/><BR/>Some homeowners don't want to do this so they'll just let the loan go into foreclosure. OR they'll think, "hey, I can just file bankruptcy and wipe this away." That's not always the case. Sometimes the lender petitions the BK judge to not discharge the debt.<BR/><BR/>A short selling homeowner always needs legal counsel throughout the transaction. If they're in financial distress and can't afford an attorney, they can contact their local bar association for a referral to legal aid.<BR/><BR/>Without requiring the homeowner to pay back the shortage, our banking system wouldn't work. You and I pay for banking losses whether we're talking foreclosure or short sales in the form of higher bank fees and higher interest rates on our loans. Except for Eleua who doesn't use credit at all. <BR/>:)Jillayne Schlickehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04116072402398172132noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-55077388499840079202007-03-13T23:43:00.000-07:002007-03-13T23:43:00.000-07:00Couple random thoughts:1. I think that the stock ...Couple random thoughts:<BR/><BR/>1. I think that the stock market needs a few bad days in a row. It seems like one very bearish day is followed by a slow creep up. That has enabled the bulls to remain optimistic. If the market takes 3 or 4 poor days in a row, it will be hard for the bulls to take back control.<BR/><BR/>2. I was watching "What is my house worth?" tonight. I was wondering, in 2 or 3 years they should have the same show, but instead of people jumping up and down finding out that they made 200,000 dollar in equity, they found out that their McCraftsman in Ballard is now worth 200,000 less than when they bought it. The camera could then pan in on the horrified look on their faces when they realize they are hosed.<BR/><BR/>2007 Price = 550,000<BR/>2009 Price = 350,000<BR/><BR/>Equity = -200,000! Congratulations!!!!<BR/><BR/>Some lady on that show in Florida was hoping she made over 200,000 in equity so that she could take the money right out and upgrade her house and buy a bigger boat.Matthewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12639743614054159740noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-20597910458831568772007-03-13T19:48:00.000-07:002007-03-13T19:48:00.000-07:00hrm, maybe he was heavily invested in NEW, FMT, LE...hrm, maybe he was heavily invested in NEW, FMT, LEND and NFI.<BR/><BR/>Next step, WM, CFC, WFC, BKUNA... let the party begin!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-32975827865938629332007-03-13T18:58:00.000-07:002007-03-13T18:58:00.000-07:00I'm usually pretty good about not discussing the h...I'm usually pretty good about not discussing the housing market a work, cause it's like discussing religion or politics these days. But I was working late tonight and thought the office was empty except for one of my coworkers who was kabitzing with me.<BR/><BR/>Anyway, we ended up discussing housing quite loudly and at great length. When I finally left I noticed my boss was still in his office and looked like someone just shot his dog. Oops.refractedthoughthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03103011487719993293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-23159332274549159042007-03-13T18:57:00.000-07:002007-03-13T18:57:00.000-07:00holy sh&$nikkei is down hard right now...tomorrow ...holy sh&$<BR/><BR/>nikkei is down hard right now...tomorrow could be even uglier on wall streetEconEhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03366126036963024056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-74657637307851621202007-03-13T18:03:00.000-07:002007-03-13T18:03:00.000-07:00Matthew - I'm glad I could help out.Matthew - I'm glad I could help out.MikeyKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00001011725364022470noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-35831125623878584472007-03-13T17:43:00.000-07:002007-03-13T17:43:00.000-07:00Eleua, RE broker? I like that. Beacause a Realto...Eleua, RE broker? I like that. Beacause a Realtor (tm) would never, NEVER EVER, commit any misdeeds. Your Realtor (tm) has only YOUR best interests on her mind.<BR/><BR/>This meltdown reminds me of Enron, WorldCom, etc. fiascos of 2001. CPAs got their faces completely smeared as a result of the big downfall. As a result, we are no longer self-regulated in the SEC arena and the AICPA has somewhat been invalidated. I think in the end, the same thing will happen to Realtors (tm) and your friendly lenders.Chrishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11477367298896747778noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-5971109073301552002007-03-13T16:56:00.000-07:002007-03-13T16:56:00.000-07:00Mike,Thanks for pointing out the obvious.Mike,<BR/><BR/>Thanks for pointing out the obvious.Matthewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12639743614054159740noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-33584863069909610382007-03-13T16:55:00.000-07:002007-03-13T16:55:00.000-07:00I wonder if Ardell realized how prophetic it was t...I wonder if Ardell realized how prophetic it was to title a post on RCG regarding "The longest season ever". Although it will seem long not due to the number of hours of daylight....Matthewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12639743614054159740noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-68676692041070838362007-03-13T16:52:00.000-07:002007-03-13T16:52:00.000-07:00Mike said:> sub-prime mortgages were ...very profi...Mike said:> <I>sub-prime mortgages were ...very profitable investments.</I><BR/><BR/>Synthetik said:> <I>so was shorting the ever-loving bejeezus out of them!</I> <BR/><BR/>Let's just be clear here: Shorting sub-prime MBSs was profitable in the past 6-12 months. It was not profitable from 2001-2005 while real estate was rising.<BR/><BR/>I suspect that with the ongoing selloff, there will be great opprotunities in the sub-prime MBS market again.MikeyKhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00001011725364022470noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-7579261003460224872007-03-13T15:54:00.000-07:002007-03-13T15:54:00.000-07:00Speaking of "Elliot Spitzer on line one..."I think...Speaking of "Elliot Spitzer on line one..."<BR/><BR/>I think Bear Sterns is in heap-big trouble over their tout of NEW.<BR/><BR/>Now, if we could only get your garden variety RE broker's nuts in a vise over the very same thing...Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-3925310325360909222007-03-13T15:33:00.000-07:002007-03-13T15:33:00.000-07:00One of my good Navy buddies got laid off from Unit...One of my good Navy buddies got laid off from United and went to work for one of the big Dead Fish houses. I always asked him what his peers were saying about the economy, and he always maintained that with the exception of one guy, they were all bullish.<BR/><BR/>They would all have to give presentations about their investment strategies, and the resident bear always had the best show. He would chart up a storm, and go on and on about fundamentals, and the fact that WE HAVE NOT SEEN ENOUGH DAMAGE FROM THE LAST BUST.<BR/><BR/>All the bulls would laugh it off and go back to pimping stocks and derivitives.<BR/><BR/>This is one reason I think the entire investment community should be dragged out and shot.<BR/><BR/>"Elliot Spitzer on line one..."Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-12392478372073267462007-03-13T15:24:00.000-07:002007-03-13T15:24:00.000-07:00I think it's good though that people are waking up...I think it's good though that people are waking up to how this affects the economy and not just the RE market.<BR/><BR/>For anyone familiar with forest fires, the economy has needed a controlled burn for some time now, and since it never got one we're staring at years of fuel loading in the underbrush... and we are going to all burn like Malibu when lightning strikes... or when someone tosses a cigarette out their car window.Bri&Meghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13562627487394828586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-22939307685517769782007-03-13T14:58:00.000-07:002007-03-13T14:58:00.000-07:00I wonder when the term "soft-crash" will be coined...I wonder when the term "soft-crash" will be coined.EconEhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03366126036963024056noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-9244751918737705102007-03-13T14:50:00.000-07:002007-03-13T14:50:00.000-07:00GREAT TAKES, I'D ADD IT WAS IN THE CARDS BUT WE WE...GREAT TAKES, I'D ADD IT WAS IN THE CARDS BUT WE WERE IN DENIAL<BR/><BR/>Have any of you believed that drinking 8 glasses of water would lengthen your life? Its actually an urban legend [ask your doctor, he'll agree with me] that was started by a non-medical government worker bean counter from the FDA I believe and after a while we all kinda believed it. Yet, its all complete hogwash, you get plenty of water just from the food you eat.<BR/><BR/>Seattle, the land where $5 cups of coffee were invented, and you ask us NW buffoons what homes are really worth? Ha ha.<BR/><BR/>When the dust settles on this MONSTER bubble, we're all gonna find out the heart-wrenching Seattle truth; homes go up over the decades, about an average 4% a year, before maintenance and interest costs.softwarengineerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03011771815396943160noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-66310094161645771492007-03-13T14:31:00.000-07:002007-03-13T14:31:00.000-07:00"so was shorting the ever-loving bejeezus out of t...<I>"so was shorting the ever-loving bejeezus out of them! "</I><BR/><BR/>Too funny. Too true.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-19950603922570583712007-03-13T14:24:00.000-07:002007-03-13T14:24:00.000-07:00>sub-prime mortgages were a great deal while prope...>sub-prime mortgages were a great deal while property prices were increasing, as the spread over treasuries was very high, and the risk was low. These were very profitable investments.<BR/><BR/>so was shorting the ever-loving bejeezus out of them!Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-41248531364776926322007-03-13T14:14:00.000-07:002007-03-13T14:14:00.000-07:00Let the good times roll linkshttp://tinyurl.com/2e...Let the good times roll links<BR/><BR/>http://tinyurl.com/2eenle<BR/>http://tinyurl.com/2g4q62<BR/><BR/>Love that even the "pros" are still in the "maybe" stage...Bri&Meghttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13562627487394828586noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-33198756004767038592007-03-13T14:13:00.000-07:002007-03-13T14:13:00.000-07:00Bubblevision cracks me up.After the bell, the Quee...Bubblevision cracks me up.<BR/><BR/>After the bell, the <A HREF="http://msnbcmedia1.msn.com/j/msnbc/Components/Photos/070126/070126_mariaB_vmed_2p.widec.jpg" REL="nofollow">Queen Bingo Caller</A> was doing a segment on "Did Wall Street Miss the Subprime Meltdown?"<BR/><BR/>I was like Obi-Wan feeling a massive distrubance in The Force, where millions of voices were saying the <A HREF="http://anon688.googlepages.com/noshit.wav" REL="nofollow">obvious</A>.<BR/><BR/>Now, they are all saying that <A HREF="http://anon688.googlepages.com/alliswell.wav" REL="nofollow">it is contained</A>, even though they didn't see it coming. <BR/><BR/>I don't want to see your basic Joe suffer for this, but those on Wall Street need to be dragged out and shot. I've been <A HREF="http://anon688.googlepages.com/finally.wav" REL="nofollow">waiting</A> for this for almost 9 years.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.com