tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post8598265827486256391..comments2023-10-08T06:24:07.089-07:00Comments on Seattle Bubble: 01.26.2007 - Friday Open ThreadThe Timhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.comBlogger38125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-67436765320885467162007-01-27T09:47:00.000-08:002007-01-27T09:47:00.000-08:00Puget Sounder,
If you are talking about 631 Marke...Puget Sounder,<br /><br />If you are talking about 631 Market, the largest unit priced at just $1.349 mil is $731 per square foot. The lowest priced one at $649,000 is $617.51 per square foot. At least one is $493 per square foot.<br /><br />Given the way the building sits, the PPSF differential is likely about view considerations. Would still prefer them to the townhomes up the street for over $900,000 at $319 per square foot where everyone is looking into your entire home that drives on Market Street.<br /><br />I think the prices are too high for being ON Market Steet, but the car lot is not a factor. More the traffic and noise issue generally on Market Street.<br /><br />The most valuable land is not near the bar and restaurant noise "in Downtown Kirkland Proper". Ceiling height is fast becoming an issue for Kirkland Condos and a rebalancing of price per square foot between older vs. newer.Ardell DellaLoggiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14475875507055968022noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-16474364922721204382007-01-27T09:18:00.000-08:002007-01-27T09:18:00.000-08:00Puget Sounder,
I can't identify the property by"
...Puget Sounder,<br /><br />I can't identify the property by"<br /> http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/home?MARKET=seattle#market=seattle&lat=47.680688580992545&zoomLevel=15¤tLocation=&long=-122.20646381378175&residential=true&condo=true&min_price=500000&max_price=1000000&num_beds=2&num_baths=&time_on_market_range=-&min_listing_approx_size=&max_listing_approx_size=&sold_within_months=0<br /><br />Are those the new condos on the West side of Market or the new townhomes further up East of Market? Both are ON Market Street. Seems you are talking about the ones across from the Sears building.<br /><br />Do you have an mls #?Ardell DellaLoggiahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14475875507055968022noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-69317981446917114022007-01-26T22:53:00.000-08:002007-01-26T22:53:00.000-08:00Regarding Houston... Was anyone saying there was a...Regarding Houston... Was anyone saying there was a bubble at that time but that Houston was special?Alanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05660201775008638301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-71962699511344518352007-01-26T18:47:00.000-08:002007-01-26T18:47:00.000-08:00Deepcgi,
Moved to the PNW from Houston in 1991.. ...Deepcgi,<br /><br />Moved to the PNW from Houston in 1991.. We had a mansion that we sold for 212,000... Houses in that neighborhood have barely appreciated at all....Matthewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12639743614054159740noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-36857369554957622592007-01-26T18:46:00.000-08:002007-01-26T18:46:00.000-08:00http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/home?MARKET=seat...http://www.redfin.com/stingray/do/home?MARKET=seattle#market=seattle&lat=47.680688580992545&zoomLevel=15¤tLocation=&long=-122.20646381378175&residential=true&condo=true&min_price=500000&max_price=1000000&num_beds=2&num_baths=&time_on_market_range=-&min_listing_approx_size=&max_listing_approx_size=&sold_within_months=0<br /><br />Ridiculous listing of the day. $450/sq foot in Kirkland? No. Just no. Come on -- this is a block from a used-car lot on Market Street. It's not even in downtown Kirkland proper.Puget Sounderhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00869332354829053297noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-40859515867058396102007-01-26T17:07:00.000-08:002007-01-26T17:07:00.000-08:00There's a number of newer houses around Redmond in...There's a number of newer houses around Redmond in that price range that have been on the market for a couple months. <br /><br />It doesn't mean anything with regards to predictions of price declines.bilirubenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10622935561372397427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-49417844018830990822007-01-26T16:44:00.000-08:002007-01-26T16:44:00.000-08:00Another data point: I work at Microsoft too, and k...Another data point: I work at Microsoft too, and know quite a few colleagues who have investment rental properties in the East-side. A number of them have been griping about how they can't get enough income to cover all their expenses...Surkanstancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04585126606657293898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-17674165712764093562007-01-26T16:39:00.000-08:002007-01-26T16:39:00.000-08:00Nolaguy - You dont know what your talking about. M...<i>Nolaguy - You dont know what your talking about. MSFT exceeded their EPS and $ profit estimates for the current quarter and year.</i><br /><br />Don't be a jerk, finance"guru". MSFT beat EPS because they guided the estimates down, and you know it.<br /><br />Nolaguy's summary was 100% correct -- Microsoft profits are down 30%, year-over-year.MisterBubblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01317437260649857132noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-9678093238165285342007-01-26T16:28:00.000-08:002007-01-26T16:28:00.000-08:00My opinion is worth what you paid for it, but the ...My opinion is worth what you paid for it, but the Eastside will feel pain before Seattle proper does, just like Kent/Maple Valley/Smokey Point are starting to hiss right now.wreckingbullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17638414960637604072noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-43542223006441566872007-01-26T16:25:00.000-08:002007-01-26T16:25:00.000-08:00Examples of properties that have flown away:
http...Examples of properties that have flown away:<br /><br />http://www.windermere.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=Listing.ListingDetail&ListingID=17264664<br /><br />http://www.windermere.com/index.cfm?fuseaction=Listing.ListingDetail&ListingID=17250946sashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14716965384430178481noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-32852426026265795352007-01-26T16:03:00.001-08:002007-01-26T16:03:00.001-08:00sash,
At an open house in Bridal Trails I met an...sash, <br /><br />At an open house in Bridal Trails I met an investor who own six investment properties and was thinking about buying the one we were looking at.<br /><br />The house around the corner from us in south Bellevue recently sold for $600k and immediately went up for rent.<br /><br />It is only two data points, but I see more speculation than residence purchasing in the Eastside.Alanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05660201775008638301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-64103448677666165962007-01-26T16:03:00.000-08:002007-01-26T16:03:00.000-08:00We must be looking at different parts of the east ...We must be looking at different parts of the east side. I'm seeing some houses sitting for sale for literaly months. I've also seen quite a few price reductions on the ones I've cared to check. This is all in the 164th Ave area south of Micrsoft -- residential Redmond and Bellevue.<br /><br />The Microsoft benefits are indeed fantastic. I don't know how my salary fits with industry average because I don't really follow it. I'm pretty happy with it. It's the most I've ever made in the industry other than the outrageus pre-dot-com-bust salary I made for a year. It certainly allows me enough to do the things I want and save quite a bit.Shadowedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02275066426135302508noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-64104760909709442232007-01-26T16:00:00.000-08:002007-01-26T16:00:00.000-08:00I thought that MS paid less than industry average ...I thought that MS paid less than industry average because they offer such incredible benefits and career flexibility.<br /><br />MS wages are not propping up the market now or in the future.Alanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05660201775008638301noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-58589991930536551592007-01-26T15:41:00.000-08:002007-01-26T15:41:00.000-08:00do you guys see the prices even inching down for a...do you guys see the prices even inching down for a decent house (not 30 yrs old) in the east side? at best I see them flat. and the houses are going off quite quickly. In the past couple of weeks especially I have seen some really nice houses in the 600 to 650K$ range fly away within 7 days of listing. How do you explain that?sashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14716965384430178481noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-25434437814187027972007-01-26T15:36:00.000-08:002007-01-26T15:36:00.000-08:00That Zune is such a big hit, we can only hope Vist...That Zune is such a big hit, we can only hope Vista will be as good.... No sorry, that was mean. Obvioulsy there are a few doubts on how well this will go over, otherwise the anticipation of it's release would be shooting the stock substantially higher that the mediocre boost it is getting. Reviews have not been overwhelmingly great. it is a wait and see. I certainly wont add any to my portfolio.The Klondikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07641020238476061731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-67369964761849758412007-01-26T15:22:00.000-08:002007-01-26T15:22:00.000-08:00Here's one Microsoft employee who has decided to r...Here's one Microsoft employee who has decided to rent instead of buy solely because of the escalated housing prices. I wonder how many more there are?Shadowedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02275066426135302508noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-39823863467337775832007-01-26T15:03:00.000-08:002007-01-26T15:03:00.000-08:00financeguru: "Overall they exceeded Wall Street es...financeguru: "Overall they exceeded Wall Street estimates."<br /><br />True, Microsoft exceeded estimates. But this is NO guarantee they will continiue to exceed estimates, or that their business will continue to grow as much as it has in the last 5 years. Technology changes, and general economic condititions could easily throw Microsoft for a loop.<br /><br />I am NOT saying that I think Microsoft is a bad company or anything. I am just saying that they aren't different from any other firm, and EVERY company goes through rough patches. On that basis, Microsoft has so far been extraordinarily lucky not to hit a big pot-hole. I wonder how long the luck will hold...Surkanstancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04585126606657293898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-10231712835326159952007-01-26T14:47:00.000-08:002007-01-26T14:47:00.000-08:00Nolaguy - You dont know what your talking about. ...Nolaguy - You dont know what your talking about. MSFT exceeded their EPS and $ profit estimates for the current quarter and year. <br /><br />The reason the profits are down 30% is that Vista sales were postponed until 1Q07...so the profits were just deferred. Overall they exceeded Wall Street estimates.Financehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10942862156434184911noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-38924636754410938722007-01-26T14:10:00.000-08:002007-01-26T14:10:00.000-08:00Microsoft Profits down 30%
http://business.scotsm...Microsoft Profits down 30%<br /><br />http://business.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=136752007Nolaguyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10840937821204590350noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-17758141149318031712007-01-26T13:52:00.000-08:002007-01-26T13:52:00.000-08:00Builders aren't the ones making a ton of money. Mo...Builders aren't the ones making a ton of money. Most don't make 10%. Many small builders will be BK this time next year.confusedhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/13243650700789544427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-73305343718197302302007-01-26T13:30:00.000-08:002007-01-26T13:30:00.000-08:00Sash, let me get this striaght. You are saying t...Sash, let me get this striaght. You are saying that Microsoft has the ability to single handedly prop up the entire Eastside?<br /><br />I don't care how many jobs they add or even much these purported jobs pay. Their employees are a drop in the bucket when it comes to overall Eastside housing demand.<br /><br />Microsoft it at its zenith now. While they were busy building their latest dinosaur, AKA Vista, the world around them changed.wreckingbullhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/17638414960637604072noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-47977415602891979892007-01-26T13:25:00.000-08:002007-01-26T13:25:00.000-08:00Mikhail,
Thank you for that. It does explain it. ...Mikhail,<br />Thank you for that. It does explain it. I couldn't remember the correlation. Agreat job of explaining. <br /><br />And I certainly agree with your assesment of any Microsoft employment gains.The Klondikehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/07641020238476061731noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-30291163701120329472007-01-26T13:11:00.000-08:002007-01-26T13:11:00.000-08:00Sash: "dont expect any remarkable price slump if y...Sash: "dont expect any remarkable price slump if you expect to buy a house around redmond=kirland-bellevue the MS zone"<br /><br />Huh? Since when was a good job market able to sustain run-away real-estate bubbles? The down-turn occuring in many parts of the country are occuring at PRECISELY the same time as those regions are having significant job growth.<br /><br />Further, if the broader Puget Sound region starts feeling significant real-estate declines, then it would ABSOLUTELY have an impact on the Bellevue/Redmond/Kirkland area. There is a price differential at which Microsoft employees would decide it was just worth it to commute from Kent, Bothel, or Everett.<br /><br />In the end, however, I just don't buy the argument about Puget Sound (or Microsoft) exceptionalism. Our region is part of the national economy, and if there is a major contraction in credit (with lenders going belly up, a loss of demand for sub-prime mortgage securities), the Puget Sound will be hit just as much as anywhere else.<br /><br />Just what would happen to the Redmond/Bellevue/Kirkland market if all sub-prime lending vanished? I don't care how many people Microsoft is hiring, if the sub-prime market vanishing, and lending requirements tighten, the real-estate market in those areas will be creamed. In fact, if Microsoft jobs were so amazingly wonderful for the regions housing market, why is it that sub-prime, and exotic, mortgages have been rising so astonishingly much in this area?<br /><br />Finally, anyone who thinks Microsoft is some kind of perpetual money machine that will keep on growing indefinitely will wind up sorely disillusioned one day. Microsoft is a great company, but they themselves are not immune from recessions, and will inevitably face some major retrenchments, and restructurings just like every other major enterprise.Surkanstancehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04585126606657293898noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-68147313350112359652007-01-26T12:44:00.000-08:002007-01-26T12:44:00.000-08:00folks dont expect any remarkable price slump if yo...folks dont expect any remarkable price slump if you expect to buy a house around redmond=kirland-bellevue the MS zone. MS is going to hire even more people. More folks will get sick of traffic and want to move closer.sashhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14716965384430178481noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-19981379888513888872007-01-26T12:05:00.001-08:002007-01-26T12:05:00.001-08:00The government will fix the problem of high prices...The government will fix the problem of high prices.<br /><br />According to the Washington Association of Realtors website at http://www.itsapriority.com/, the State government is the cause of high home prices and the lack of supply of reasonably priced homes. Those all-knowing legislators in Olympia just need to allow local communities to increase taxes in order to build the infrastructure needed to accommodate population growth and allow builders to increase the supply of new homes that the average person can afford. And one other thing, those money-hungry builders need to price their new homes in relation to what it costs them to build rather than what the market is willing to pay.<br /><br />This recent business of an increase in the supply of homes AND increasing prices in Puget Sound area must just be a myth.Jim Davishttps://www.blogger.com/profile/02298607092232185710noreply@blogger.com