tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post9105165725240362847..comments2023-10-08T06:24:07.089-07:00Comments on Seattle Bubble: Case-Shiller: Prices Flat in SeattleThe Timhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.comBlogger73125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-61236940265130334912007-03-28T23:04:00.000-07:002007-03-28T23:04:00.000-07:00nolaguy,I think you are confused between Charlotte...nolaguy,<BR/><BR/>I think you are confused between Charlotte NC, and Charlotte SC.Eleuahttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08248482892459370601noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-659929393111547612007-03-28T19:47:00.000-07:002007-03-28T19:47:00.000-07:00Haha....that's me! I'm a musician and have been pl...<I>Haha....that's me! I'm a musician and have been playing the clubs in Ballard for 10 years! That's why I like it here.</I><BR/><BR/>Funny thing is, Shug, that <I>if</I> you are actually correct in your grand vision of appreciation, Ballard's "punks and rockabillies" will be long-gone before too long. They can't afford a half-million dollar mortgage or your imagined skyrocketing rents. They'll all be in White Center, Rainier Beach, or (gasp) <B>Tacoma</B>.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/16676022650964491696noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-91626564448968891482007-03-28T14:43:00.000-07:002007-03-28T14:43:00.000-07:00We should trust a professor at WAZZU 5 hours away ...We should trust a professor at WAZZU 5 hours away in Pullman, WA??<BR/><BR/>I'm sure he has a great understanding of Seattle, WA, coming from a town that when school is out, has a population of 2k!<BR/><BR/>No thanks, I'd rather listen to Fleck!Matthewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12639743614054159740noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-50436326712477280872007-03-28T14:36:00.000-07:002007-03-28T14:36:00.000-07:00"Charlotte and Seattle were flat".Based on this, s..."Charlotte and Seattle were flat".<BR/><BR/>Based on this, some people have assumed that Charlotte, (and Seattle by association) are special. (strong job growth was stated).<BR/><BR/>I found this ABC news video at Housing Panic:<BR/><BR/>http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NyaNpw4IKdU<BR/><BR/>If this is the same Charlotte mentioned in the Shiller article, then something is certainly wrong.<BR/><BR/>Could it be that there is a quantity of exotic mortgages in Charlotte still available that has allowed housing to remain relatively strong? Is there still plenty of mortgage medicine to keep housing activity (and prices) up?<BR/><BR/>I don't know - but when 20% of a new housing development loses their house due to foreclosure, that doesn't sound like a strong economy.Nolaguyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10840937821204590350noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-58792169646114781862007-03-28T14:00:00.000-07:002007-03-28T14:00:00.000-07:00Apparently these 'observers' were run out of town,...<I>Apparently these 'observers' were run out of town, and have set up shop here in Puget Sound.</I><BR/><BR/>Actually, Crelling has been around a long time. He runs the <A HREF="http://www.cbe.wsu.edu/directory/profile.cfm?emp=crellin_glenn" REL="nofollow">Washington Center for Real Estate Research</A><BR/><BR/>My guess is that he knows a hell of a lot more about the market then we do.meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-53321262277662225452007-03-28T10:43:00.000-07:002007-03-28T10:43:00.000-07:00That's a good point. It must be year to date inst...That's a good point. It must be year to date instead of YOY, unless the inflation rate has been that low...?<BR/><BR/>I'll look more closely come August 7th to make sure we get the inflation adjustment right.bilirubenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10622935561372397427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-60370970737549471492007-03-28T03:08:00.000-07:002007-03-28T03:08:00.000-07:00Hey...I live in the Ballard ghetto! I'm a badass!...Hey...I live in the <B>Ballard ghetto</B>! I'm a badass! I guess the old people and the yuppies in new luxury condos are all part of my posse now -- I think we'll call ourselves "the Nords".<BR/><BR/>Still...you wouldn't think that the Hebrew Hammer would be threatened by elderly swedes...<I>Oy gevalt!</I> What are we gonna do now? Is there ever gonna be a <I>shemozzle</I> if these <I>nudniks</I> get outta control!MisterBubblehttps://www.blogger.com/profile/01317437260649857132noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-27867888980155067292007-03-27T23:39:00.000-07:002007-03-27T23:39:00.000-07:00"fraud in general" and more specifically is relate...<I>"fraud in general" and more specifically is related to corporate, mortgage and investment issues.</I><BR/><BR/>God, is there any company in the housing industry that was <I>not</I> turned into an instrument of wholesale looting?<BR/><BR/>Is there no end to the slime? We've just scratched the surface, and I already want to hurl. Part of me thinks prison is too good for these people; we should be wheeling out the f'ing guillotine.refractedthoughthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03103011487719993293noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-30867371103807352382007-03-27T22:23:00.000-07:002007-03-27T22:23:00.000-07:00Fact is, Ballard night life is driven by the rocka...<I>Fact is, Ballard night life is driven by the rockabilly punks and artists that moved there because the rents were cheap.</I><BR/><BR/>Haha....that's me! I'm a musician and have been playing the clubs in Ballard for 10 years! That's why I like it here.<BR/><BR/>It's simply fascinating how I can make one comment and you guys will analyze it to death. It's like I'm a prophet or something....meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-38892969026170419762007-03-27T21:18:00.000-07:002007-03-27T21:18:00.000-07:00Depends...living in a GOOD part of ballard. Not on...<I>Depends...living in a GOOD part of ballard. Not on a busy street or in the rental ghettos S. of 65th.</I><BR/><BR/>Rental ghettos? Dude, you're too much. What an a elitist snot... <BR/><BR/>The GOOD part of Ballard? get real... You're such a joke. Good parts of Ballard you couldn't even afford... <BR/><BR/>blogger A:"Just found a great rental for under $1200/month, zillow's for 500K"<BR/><BR/>Shugster:"Yeah, but its in a ghetto, I would never live there because I'm an effeete intellectual who appreciates quiet, that and I think its healthy for my kids to play in the road"<BR/><BR/>Funny, a dude that cruthces on zillow for his self-worth, dismisses it when the properties aren't up to his bizarre immeasurable standard.<BR/><BR/>Start your own property website dude... or stop quoting zillowMatt Rivetthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06410253453923145045noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-87633327833103370402007-03-27T20:58:00.000-07:002007-03-27T20:58:00.000-07:00Sounds good! I think it's a pretty fair bet, actu...Sounds good! I think it's a pretty fair bet, actually.bilirubenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10622935561372397427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-3162709761176447362007-03-27T19:58:00.000-07:002007-03-27T19:58:00.000-07:00Ok...so the median Res for Seattle was 435 in July...Ok...so the median Res for Seattle was 435 in July 2006. Adjusted for inflation that will be 439 in July 2007. So if the median in July 2007 is higher the 439, I win. If it's lower you win...OK?meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-31281322899135795662007-03-27T19:33:00.000-07:002007-03-27T19:33:00.000-07:00Does Beazer build around here? The fun is just sta...Does Beazer build around here? The fun is just starting. I said before that nothing brings out the fraud like a declining market. This is going to spread to everything now and everywhere, even here in Seattle. (((((PANIC)))))<BR/><BR/>AP<BR/>Beazer Homes Faces FBI Investigation<BR/><BR/>Tuesday March 27, 6:52 pm ET <BR/>Feds Looking Into Fraud Allegations Involving Homebuilder Beazer; Stock Plunges <BR/><BR/><BR/>ATLANTA (AP) -- Beazer Homes USA Inc., which has recently suffered hefty losses amid a downturn in the housing market, now faces a federal investigation of mortgage fraud and other allegations involving the homebuilder. Beazer shares plunged 15 percent in after-hours trading Tuesday.<BR/><BR/>The FBI and the U.S. attorney's office in Charlotte, N.C., along with the Internal Revenue Service and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, launched an investigation of Beazer Homes last week, FBI agent Ken Lucas said Tuesday.<BR/><BR/>Lucas, a spokesman for the FBI's Charlotte field office, said the inquiry involves "fraud in general" and more specifically is related to corporate, mortgage and investment issues.<BR/><BR/>http://tinyurl.com/3dfgmvPegasushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11307734411796085247noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-71113706455076367482007-03-27T19:26:00.000-07:002007-03-27T19:26:00.000-07:00We'll use the simple inflation calculator 2006 to ...We'll use the simple inflation calculator 2006 to 2007:<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl" REL="nofollow">CPI inflation calculator</A>bilirubenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10622935561372397427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-61824216477672335852007-03-27T19:23:00.000-07:002007-03-27T19:23:00.000-07:00CPICPIbilirubenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10622935561372397427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-9765378427481927202007-03-27T19:20:00.000-07:002007-03-27T19:20:00.000-07:00Oh...sorry. adjusted for inflation...this all depe...Oh...sorry. adjusted for inflation...this all depends on what sources your using to do your calculations. What data will you be citing?meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-72944883300366263872007-03-27T19:05:00.000-07:002007-03-27T19:05:00.000-07:00Cool, Meshugy. I'd like to use inflation adjusted...Cool, Meshugy. <BR/><BR/>I'd like to use inflation adjusted (CPI) Single Family, King County, because I think that's what we originally specified last summer, but I can't find it. All I can find is Res+Condo, which was 390K (now 393K - so with inflation, I think I would currently be good).<BR/><BR/>I suppose the MLS will show the breakout when it comes around, however. SFH cool?bilirubenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10622935561372397427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-14805830204429135522007-03-27T18:39:00.000-07:002007-03-27T18:39:00.000-07:00As far as I recall it was something like if you lo...<I>As far as I recall it was something like if you lost you would take a picture of your house with a whole bunch of flacid balloons hanging from the eves, and send it into Tim to post.</I><BR/><BR/>Okmeshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-57805336227423826322007-03-27T18:38:00.000-07:002007-03-27T18:38:00.000-07:00Right from the mouth of the Standard & Poor's Inde...Right from the mouth of the Standard & Poor's Index Committee.<BR/><BR/><A HREF="http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/309149_housing28.html" REL="nofollow">Seattle housing prices up 11% from last year</A><BR/><BR/><I>Seattle, unlike most, if not all, of the other metropolitan areas, continues to see robust increases in home prices," said David Blitzer, chairman of Standard & Poor's Index Committee. "My sense and suspicion is this says an awful lot about the general economic climate in the Seattle area."<BR/><BR/>Seattle market observers have said the area's strong job growth has helped buoy housing prices. As for flattening prices in recent months, Blitzer said Seattle is not immune to national factors, such as higher energy prices and interest rates and slowing economic growth.<BR/><BR/>"I think (prices) will continue to slow somewhat," he said. "But are you going to look like Detroit in six months? No, I don't think so."</I><BR/><BR/>And are good friend Crellin says:<BR/><BR/><I>"You don't see much month-to-month change in prices in the dead of winter, even in a temperate climate like you have in Seattle," he said. "The March-though-May-June time period, I think, is really going to tell us a lot about the market."<BR/><BR/>Crellin said he expects year-to-year appreciation to be 5 to 7 percent in the next few months and 3 to 4 percent by the end of the year. That's still fairly strong, but down significantly from the booming market of the past couple of years.</I>meshugyhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12332798876700147445noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-50651141856504406202007-03-27T17:55:00.000-07:002007-03-27T17:55:00.000-07:00Sure...what's the wager?-MeshugyAs far as I recall...<I>Sure...what's the wager?</I><BR/>-<B>Meshugy</B><BR/><BR/>As far as I recall it was something like if you lost you would take a picture of your house with a whole bunch of flacid balloons hanging from the eves, and send it into Tim to post. <BR/><BR/>If I lost... I can't remember. Something like putting "Housing only goes up up up!" on my roof and similarly posting a pic. I'm open to your suggestions, however, if you have a novel idea.<BR/><BR/>It's in an old thread someplace, though I wouldn't know how to find it.bilirubenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10622935561372397427noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-69330027691769813412007-03-27T17:49:00.000-07:002007-03-27T17:49:00.000-07:00Meshugy is the master of disinformation! The voic...Meshugy is the master of disinformation! The voice of the damned gets louder as judgement day approaches!Matthewhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12639743614054159740noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-19819799678392511062007-03-27T16:52:00.000-07:002007-03-27T16:52:00.000-07:00I don't know if it's Mapquest or Meshugy that's wa...I don't know if it's Mapquest or Meshugy that's way off base on this one, but <A HREF="http://maps.google.com/maps?q=9625+NE+141+Pl+Bothell,+WA+98011" REL="nofollow">here is a link</A> to the address in question. As has been pointed out, it's nowhere near the freeway, and definitely not on a busy street. <BR/> <BR/>Swing and a miss!The Timhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/14832570891451659976noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-26890278786535000602007-03-27T16:37:00.000-07:002007-03-27T16:37:00.000-07:00RentalBliss,Look closer at the "map" Shug presente...RentalBliss,<BR/>Look closer at the "map" Shug presented you - he used the following for the, ahem, "address":<BR/><BR/>[10800-10899] Ne 141st Pl<BR/>Kirkland, WA 98034, US<BR/><BR/>What a laugh! Here's the <I>actual</I> address from the CL ad:<BR/><BR/>9625 NE 141st Pl.<BR/>Bothell, WA 9801149thgirlhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09400917767841724098noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-36785398843593608152007-03-27T16:30:00.000-07:002007-03-27T16:30:00.000-07:00Here's the thing. For these people that believe th...Here's the thing. For these people that believe that a house is primarily an investment, as opposed to being something you live in, then when is it a good time to invest in the housing market place?<BR/><BR/>Rule of thumb: BUY LOW, SELL HIGH<BR/><BR/>If you want to throw away your money, the best thing you can do is jump in late to an overheated marketplace. <B>If an investment looks like it's overpriced, and you have some reason to think prices may decrease, DO NOT BUY!!!</B> Just ask the people that bought Amazon at +$100/share.<BR/><BR/>Right now prices in KC and nearby areas are at historical highs. Why anyone would invest in a market that is this historically overpriced and expect to make money in the short to medium term is beyond me. <BR/><BR/>But buying a home shouldn't be primarily an investment. You shouldn't plan on making money on the home you live in. Some people do, and that's great. The people that bought in prior to the run-up in prices and sold last year hit the market perfectly. But some people lose their shirts, as we will see across the country this year. <BR/><BR/>You live in your house. Owning a home has all the advantages that shug says, and he's right. But that's because you should be motivated to buy a home to live in it, not make money.Afferent Inputhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15751597864546295381noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-15223784.post-75127688337472040802007-03-27T16:09:00.000-07:002007-03-27T16:09:00.000-07:00Shug just won't stop. The man is on a mission.All...Shug just won't stop. The man is on a mission.<BR/><BR/>All I have to say is I can't wait to see some numbers for March. Of course, no matter what comes out, there will be no end to the twisted statistics trying to show how the PNW is still special; but there's gonna be some hurtin' in those numbers -- for the whole country. The <I>whole</I> country.refractedthoughthttps://www.blogger.com/profile/03103011487719993293noreply@blogger.com