Update: By request, here is a graph of today's stock performance for a handful of other locally-based companies.
For those of you keeping score at home:
- Boeing: -1.95%
- Microsoft: -4.12%
- Amazon: -5.00%
- Starbucks: -3.94%
- Nordstrom: -7.59%
- Costco: -3.48%
- Washington Mutual: -2.25%
Correction: they think that people will buy these things from them.
ReplyDeleteBoth assumptions are dubious.
I mentioned to my husband last week that our hometown hero, Mr. Gates, had sold a lot of MSFT lately. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/it?s=MSFT
ReplyDeleteWhat luck that he sold before the big crash, I mean, correction.
If China is up in a big way over the past year, there is still quite a bit of potential energy in their market. This could get interesting.
ReplyDeleteRE: Gates selling MSFT
ReplyDeleteHoly crap!
He's sold 15 million shares, for a total cash-out of over $4.375 billion, all in just the last three weeks?
I'm no financial analyst, but that sure doesn't seem like the actions of a man with a strong confidence in the future performance of the company.
Vista is a bomb and everyone except the entire memory manufacturing food chain knows it.
ReplyDeleteIn three weeks, we won't be talking about today's action. There is a lot of excitement dead ahead.
Stay strong. Stay short. Stay solvent.
Tim,
ReplyDeleteCan you double-check your figure of $4.375 billion? According to my calculation, from 6-Feb-07 to 22-Feb-07, he sold a total of $437,556,000. It seems that your sum is off by one digit, even though your total number of shares is correct. 15 million shares x (approx $29 / share) = $435,000,000.
514,000
28,878,000
8,661,000
49,606,000
570,000
56,786,000
28,800,000
258,000
58,711,000
7,135,000
22,330,000
10,000,000
19,047,000
28,955,000
8,365,000
20,761,000
29,300,000
9,151,000
20,323,000
29,405,000
-----------
437,556,000
He who panics first panics best.
ReplyDeleteAn old Wall Street adage that may soon apply to the real estate market.
I am told the credit crunch is starting to spread beyond the 30 percent hit that the subprime market took in the last three months. Spreading now to mortgages above subprime. If that continues and the "predicted" recession arrives shortly, there will be blood in the streets beyond the stock market. There is nothing better to expose the frauds than a declining real estate market.
Timber!!!!!!!!
Gates also sold $531,159,000.00 worth of stock in the first half of November. I wouldn't read "too much" into him selling off a big chunk of stock. Wish I had that problem.
ReplyDeleteP.S - that's from the same link that The Tim had provided
ReplyDeleteBubble,
ReplyDeleteYou're right. I copied it into Excel, and the superscript '2' was tacked onto the end of every dollar amount. Whoops.
Still, $437 million? Why?
"Why?"
ReplyDeleteBecause he can.
Gates actually looks pretty consistent:
May 2005 - 20 million
July 2005 - 9 million
August 2005 - 12 million
November 2005 - 20 million
February 2006 - 20 million
July/August 2006 - 20 million
November 2006 - 20 million
February 2007 - 15 million
I'm just saying that I wouldn't read too much into Gates selling shares. He have been doing this routinely despite the economic climate.
*have = has
ReplyDeleteI don't want to come off as totally illiterate.
Fair enough, but still, if the numbers you just posted are the entirety of his sales since May '05, he has sold over three times as many shares (by dollar amount) in just the last three weeks than he did in the entire prior 21 months.
ReplyDeleteHey, I noticed Jubek stated earlier this week that he had heard rumors that Wamu was possibly gonna be bought, by.....by.. damn it I forgot who it was....and that is why he isn't shorting it. I wonder how many jobs will be relocated,lost...oh yeah, it was JP Morgan. Don't think they will hold onto the home loan division.
ReplyDeleteMay 2005 - $501,695,000
ReplyDeleteJuly/August 2005 - $552,697,933
November 2005 - $542,300,000
February 2006 - $539,207,000
July/August 2006 - $484,631,950
November 2006 - $580,944,000
February 2007 - $437,556,000
The guy can't be more consistent...he only missed selling in May 2006.
ReplyDeleteOk, fair enough. I still can't help but wonder why he's selling that much stock, consistently or not.
ReplyDeleteYeah, I don't know. I guess if you're worth $40+ billion, this is part of your financial strategy.
ReplyDeleteOk, fair enough. I still can't help but wonder why he's selling that much stock, consistently or not.
ReplyDeletediversification?
You're focusing on the value of the shares. Gates doesn't care about the fluctuations in the market because he clearly is selling off over time. Like wtf pointed out, if you look at the number of shares, it looks pretty consistent. Dull, drab, consistent diversification.
Not that it matters, really. What Gates does with his money is hardly an economic indicator. It's one man's portfolio.
It might be more interesting to look at the other insiders....see if they have a "bump" in their sales recently.
ReplyDeleteJust curious, but how many of you are doing all this on a PC or Mac?
ReplyDeleteFor all non-GATES WILLIAM H III insider sales of stock...survey says:
ReplyDeleteMarch 2005 - 664,444 - $16,931,000
May/June 2005 - 648,004 - $16,340,624
August/September 2005 - 273,052 - $7,364,853
November 2005 - 2,886,437 - $79,537,781
Jan/Feb/Mar 2006 - 895,674 - $24,165,350
July/August 2006 - 100,000 - $2,425,200
Nov/Dec 2006 - 648,820 - $18,940,283
February 2007 - 0 - $0
I don't see anything telling in this data, other than a big dump in November of '05 - they launched Visual Studio 2005, SQL Server 2005, and BizTalk Server 2006 at that time...did those tank?
Maybe Bill is planning to buy a new house in Seattle and needs the extra cash.
ReplyDeleteBooyah!
oh...PC
ReplyDeleteYou guys realize MS makes more than operating systems, right? ;)
ReplyDeleteThey make Twinkies(r) right?
ReplyDeleteYou guys need to realize that Gates' sales are:
ReplyDelete1. Immaterial to the overall market cap of MSFT
2. Immaterial to his net worth, estimated at $80B.
3. He still owns 999,499 MILLION shares (worth $27.8B), so these sales are also immaterial to his total MSFT holdings.
Any inside traders have to file a plan with the SEC in which they declare, in advance, the planned sales of securities in which they are considered to be insiders.
This is very common for large owners of most publicly traded companies. Its in their best interest to diversify their holdings.
For refererence, look at what the Google guys have sold. Their liquidations of shares far surpass Gates'.
I guess we would all like to see high inside owners that never sell, like Buffett, but he's a rare breed.
None of the insiders, including Gates, are exhibiting any Martha Stewart tendencies regarding selling shares...
ReplyDeleteBe interesting to see what develops in the market in the next few days.
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ReplyDelete