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Saturday, April 24, 1982

Tuesday Open Thread

This is your open thread for Tuesday, April 24, 2007. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here. Also, if you have an idea or article for a main post, please feel free to let me know.

Be sure to also check out the forums, and get your word in the user-driven discussions there!


Adam said...

Inventory is exploding!! We have already passed last years Oct high and it's only April. The pace is picking up as well. nearly 400 added just last week.

04/23/2007 14,901
04/16/2007 14,488
04/09/2007 14,120
04/02/2007 13,790
03/26/2007 13,554
03/19/2007 13,243
03/12/2007 13,015
03/05/2007 12,844
02/26/2007 12,801
02/19/2007 12,592

04/23/2007 14,901
04/2007 14,324
03/2007 13,164
02/2007 12,520
01/2007 11,899
12/2006 13,311
11/2006 14,499
10/2006 14,797
09/2006 14,099
08/2006 13,632
07/2006 12,831
06/2006 11,953
05/2006 11,094
04/2006 10,175

Deejayoh said...

I've been waiting for the Case-Shiller data for the month.

Seattle was the best performing market in the country, up 0.5% month over month

Looks like, as I predicted - the seattle bull still had a little bit of fight left in it.

However, with the continuing imbalance of supply and demand, I don't see how it lasts

rentonite said...

Interesting news out today.

Existing Home Sales Plummet in March:

Deejayoh said...

Last tuesday of the month - reporting day for both NAR and S&P/Case Shiller (though Case Shiller is one month lagged)

And the stock market is still up

I think everyone must be drunk

rentonite said...

I'm actually closing on new construction in the Renton Highlands in the next couple of weeks. I'm a little nervous buying as the bubble is deflating but we do plan to live in this house for a long time (20 years, we're hoping) so the market should have time to recover.

Deejayoh said...

Wow, actually - now that I read this, the drop in sales is HUGE

I mean, sales are always up between Feb and March but am I reading this right? This year they are DOWN!

So the NAR couldn't even spin the month/month story. All I can say is WOW. The market is falling apart

Sales of existing homes fell 8.4 percent to an annual rate of 6.12 million in March from February's 6.68 million rate, the National Association of Realtors said. It was the biggest one-month drop since January 1989. Economists surveyed by had forecast sales would fall to an annual rate of 6.45 million in March

HomerLoanseeker said...

I got a bad feeling that Tim is giving up on Seattle.

Is he out looking for a job in Denver?

Terry said...


That's blasphemy! The Tim is no quitter! Although I sometimes wonder about his "return on investment" with respect to the time he puts on this blog.

Maybe it's time to contribute to the tip jar! I'm a cheap bastard and I recently made a contribution because this is the only place where I can get info about the "local" real estate market that isn't tainted by Realtor spin.

rubyfan said...

So Portland doesn't have a PortlandBubbleBlog or any equivilent that I could find. Instead it seems that the people there have commandeered one of those Real Estate Agent blogs.

Check out the comments.

Amir said...

As far as the "tip" jar, I can't speak for others but I submitted $200 last year.

Think of it this way, if you feel the blog has contributed in some way to your own financial wellbeing - consider a contribution.

Deejayoh said...

Sing it with me...

one of these things is not like the others

one of these things just doesn't belong

Rest of the country needs some of our northwest kool-aid

Case Shiller Index
Area 1-year change
Atlanta 2.1%
Boston -4.7%
Charlotte 7.3%
Chicago 1.7%
Cleveland -2.7%
Dallas 1.3%
Denver -1.6%
Detroit -7.8%
Las Vegas -1.0%
Los Angeles-0.4%
Miami 2.9%
Minneapolis -1.6%
New York -1.8%
Phoenix -2.1%
Portland 7.7%
San Diego -5.0%
San Francisco -2.2%
Seattle 10.6%
Tampa -1.1%
Washington -4.3%
Composite-10 -1.5%
Composite-20 -1.0%

Terry said...


I know! I know!

Seattle and Portland are DIFFERENT, because we are SPECIAL!

softwarengineer said...


Yes, the Seattle upward price data and the inventory buildup in Seattle make as much sense as stocks rising today with a crash in existing home sales.

Economists call it "Zombie" buying, i.e., even pathetic domestic bonds with dismal interest are grabbed up by by zombie Asian investors, just because.

A stock market that keeps going up when it should plummet is called a suckers market. Are we drunk in Seattle, signing home purchase papers today, especially at a higher price? Not really, anything is probably worth buying if you hold on to it long enough. I'd hold off for Seattle repossessions later, but you know, most of us don't have cash.

Speaking of no current Seattle buyers have cash, you bloggers seen this Puget Sound Journal Subprime Squeeze article:^1439716

The article states in part:

"...Although these creative mortgages are considered riskier than the traditional fixed-rate loan, they make up about half of Seattle-area home loans because they enable buyers with little savings to enter the housing market at a low initial cost, postponing the heavier payments for months or years.

And, while a rapidly appreciating local market has helped many such borrowers refinance their way out of trouble, the slowing appreciation in home prices could put them in a financial bind if their payments shoot up faster than their equity.

Exotic-mortgage holders in the Puget Sound area "are going to run into trouble," said Jim Hebert, president of Bellevue-based Hebert Research Inc. "That's another shoe that will drop."..."

More in psrt:

"...In the Seattle-Bellevue-Tacoma area, 35 percent of new 2006 mortgages were interest-only loans, according to First American Loan Performance, a San Francisco research firm...."

The rest of the article is hyped up it will never happen here stuff, like the repossession rate is going down.

Here's some BIG SEATTLE bargains out there, but ya gotta have cash$$$$:

Foreclosure facts

Average total monthly foreclosure filings for King, Pierce and Snohomish counties: 650

Average number in these three counties that go to auction each month. (Some sell before auction; about 75 percent are postponed.): About 90

Of the roughly 90 foreclosed properties that sell each month:

$217,000 is the average bid.

$350,000 is the average market value.

Up to two-thirds of properties sell within $10 of the opening bid.


The whole 3/07 URL:

Have you bloggers heard that Kenny Roger's song, "Know when to pull out" at the gambling table? I bring this up because I've been riding this roller coaster upward since 2000 and ya know, its comin' DOWN!!!

Well, with a dismal -2% savings rate per household in America, there won't be too many of us at the repossession table. LOL, like any of us will cash in our 401Ks to buy repossessions, yeah right....

Deejayoh said...

From the article referenced above. Either the author or the quoted is an idiot!

According to Hebert, the region's housing market remains robust enough to withstand the exodus of subprime buyers, in part because the growing economy is drawing thousands of new workers -- and home buyers -- into the state. Over the next five years, Hebert projects Washington will see a net inmigration of 187,000 people, with 15,572 of them moving into King County.

"Eight percent (of borrowers) is not a substantial loss because there is such strong demand for housing," Hebert said.

Lets see... 15k people over 5 years vs. 1.7mm population base in King County is about 0.2%/year growth. Yeah, that makes up for the 8% buyer loss.


Anonymous said...

If you haven't seen this graph, check it out. It compares the DOW 1986-1987 to the DOW 2006-2007.

Must SEE!

Shawn said...

deejayoh said
"However, with the continuing imbalance of supply and demand, I don't see how it lasts"

You don't seem to get economics 101:

A. The Law of Demand
The law of demand states that, if all other factors remain equal, the higher the price of a good, the less people will demand that good--EXCEPT IN SEATTLE THINGS ARE DIFFERENT THERE. In other words, the higher the price, the lower the quantity demanded--EXCEPT IN SEATTLE THINGS ARE DIFFERENT THERE. The amount of a good that buyers purchase at a higher price is less because as the price of a good goes up, so does the opportunity cost of buying that good--EXCEPT IN SEATTLE THINGS ARE DIFFERENT THERE. As a result, people will naturally avoid buying a product that will force them to forgo the consumption of something else they value more--EXCEPT IN SEATTLE THINGS ARE DIFFERENT THERE.

Deejayoh said...

You don't seem to get economics 101

oh, that was explained to me as applying to rent, not to housing ;>)