Crystal Ball Predicts Seattle Slowdown

No, seriously. That's right, a "national housing expert" is predicting that Seattle will see a slowdown in the housing market in the next few years. He saw it on his crystal ball, it seems.

The housing market in the greater Seattle area "will be heading downward" in the next two years, a national housing expert told a gathering of real estate agents and home builders in Bellevue on Thursday.

But the prediction isn't as bad as it sounds.

If you disregard 2005 and 2004 when the greater Seattle housing market "went nuts," the home sales forecast for this area next year would be one of the best on record, said Stanley Doubinis, chief economic forecaster for Maryland-based Crystal Ball Economics Inc.

Maybe it's just me, but I have a hard time taking someone seriously when they have the words "Crystal Ball" on their business card.

The escalation of home prices in King County "might drop back to single-digit increases" next year, "but retrenchment (in prices) is not likely," said Doubinis.

How can we be in a position to "drop back to single-digit increases" and not be in a bubble?

Doubinis said he expects the Seattle-area housing market to fare better next year than housing markets in many other parts of the country because of the Puget Sound region's strong employment growth, which is increasing four times faster than the national rate.

J. Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of Bellevue-based John L. Scott Real Estate, said Doubinis' forecast pretty much matches his company's expectations for the coming year.

"We're also predicting a historically strong market next year" that will be only "slightly off the all-time best year (2005)" in terms of the number of homes sold, Scott said.

Sounds like someone who has something to sell, personally.

(Clayton Park, King County Journal, 11.18.2005)