Realtors: Bubble Talk Not Trendy
This article doesn't really relate directly to the Seattle area, but it was in a Seattle area paper, and there's a tidbit in there that I thought was rather amusing, so I decided to post it here anyway.
Mark Nash, a Coldwell Banker broker and real estate author whose book "1001 Tips for Buying & Selling a Home" is a helpful guide for consumers considering the residential market, has compiled a list of what's in for housing this year - [and] what is definitely out.How sad for me. I guess this and other bubble blogs are "out." So says the all-knowing Realtor big wig David Lereah and his "Realtors around the country." What a shock that Realtors would be tired of hearing about a bubble. What a complete shock.
The list is a result of input from Realtors around the country who, in turn, have solicited feedback from home buyers and sellers as they visit homes.
Leading the out column had nothing to do with tasteless interiors or boxy exteriors. Topping the chart was any further discussion about a possible housing bubble. Most analysts concur that no national bubble exists, including David Lereah, the National Association of Realtors' chief economist, that any bubbles must be regional and point to poor local employment figures as the reason.
There will be flat appreciation in some areas, but sales will remain strong nationally, Lereah said.
(Tom Kelly, Everett Herald, 01.08.2006)
15 comments:
Topping the [out] chart was any further discussion about a possible housing bubble.
I suppose if we plug our ears and think nice thoughts, the bubble's impending crash won't happen? The events in spring may prove otherwise.
Waiting for people to get to the point where they are willing to face reality on this thing is making me want to scream.
Let's let this thing burst so we can clean up and get back to sthg that's sustainable, realistic, and connected to some fundamentals.
hmmm.... just checked out the craigslist listings for Seattle and found something interesting:
An open house where they are giving out free Starbuck's gift cards to the first 20 people and a drawing for a $100 Nordstroms giftcard. This house is also listed on the regular MLS, starting today.
Looks like they want to make extra positive sure they get some foot traffic at the ol' open house.
I think this may be a first of many signs to come of "Desperation in Seattle".
I've been keeping track of a certain neighborhood's listings on the "seattle-realestate.com" site.
The number of pages that gets shot up with "houses available" has nearly doubled in the past 48 hours.
Yet inventory has gone DOWN from around 2300 in November to about 1700 now.
There is certainly some bubble present. Seattle remains relatively affordable city.
"Relatively affordable" is not the same as affordable.
Seattle is in the high percentage of cities in the US for those who have taken out "creative" loans.
ie. "There's no way I can afford this house w/ a 20% downpayment at a fixed rate so I guess I'll just have to commit finacial suicide and get one of these "creative" loans."
Check out the "Another F@cked Borrower" blogspot for more info.
Thankyou Dukes.
Have you called to report this guy? I think perhaps it would be a good thing to not let stuff like this slide.
It is hard to blieve that there are still people who think that RE is a "good investment" at this time. It would be easy to brush this guy off as an idiot and blowhard.
The problem is, there are still people out there who think this is still a white hot market and are jumping in with the crazy loans, getting in way over their heads. My impression is many of them are young. They are basically throwing their futures down the toilet, propelled by the advice of these of these liars.
In all my house-hunting days and all the RE Agents I dealt with, I never had one suggest to me that a house would bring me a return.
This guy is a liar. And he knows it. And you've got what he said in writing, right?
Report him.
"you will make a minimum of 10% on the total purchase price for every year...Don’t wait for prices to come down, they will not come down. "
Some people have a very short memory of how real estate has played out around Seattle.
REskeptic & others,
Can somebody who has lived here a long time give us a picture of what HAS happened in Seattle RE in the past (ups and downs)?
I'd like it to go back to mid- late 90's prices (!). Think that's even remotely possible?
A 20 or 30% slide would do absolutely nothing for me.
As you can see, I'm hoping for a big crash and frankly, at this point I don't care how we get there.
Unless there are massive job losses, don't bet on some 60%, 70%crash. Last time I checked, unemployment is low, interest rate is still low.
Nobody puts a gun to anyone's head and force him to buy or sell. If people listen to the advice of anyone who makes his living in commissions, then they deserve to lose their ass. Hey, if everyone is smart and informed, who is going to work that $10 hour job?
(An open house where they are giving out free Starbuck's gift cards to the first 20 people and a drawing for a $100 Nordstroms giftcard. This house is also listed on the regular MLS, starting today.)
sounds like a $300 price reduction to me!
Admin-
That 71% figure- is it for the US in general or is it for Seattle specifically?
HPI for Seattle
Fed is about done raising rates. 0.5% more at most.
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