Wednesday Open Thread
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15 comments:
Top 10 Hottest Markets
IMO, listings like this support that prices in Seattle will most likely come down.
http://seattle.craigslist.org/see/rfs/185658001.html
Nice yard, huh?
Maybe Renton is the new Ballard?
Similar neighborhoods, really. Lots of post wwii homes built for the working class that are in decline, but affordable when compared with surrounding 'hoods.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/07/25/real_estate/housing_market_values/index.htm?cnn=yes
Seattle is rated "fair value"
Am I on glue, but why does it least Seattle-Tacoma with a 308K median housing price? What about Seattle? Is the Tacoma/Pierce Redneck ghettos offsetting the Seattle/Ballard numbers?
This is interesting:
Tucson makes top 10 for home appreciation
Research released Tuesday by Veros Real Estate Solutions projects that Tucson home prices will rise about 7 percent.
Seattle is the only market expected to hit double-digit growth, about 11 percent.
Meshugy, as the resident housing bull, I'd be fearing any comparison to the likes of Tuscon... just look at the headlines...
-Tucson housing prices surging 4/28/05
-Tucson home buyers priced out 5/15/05
-Rent or own? Answer's not obvious. 6/04/05
-Tucson area's sizzling housing market sets more records 6/23/05
-Tucson area prices viewed as appropriate 6/24/05
-It could be long wait for bubble to burst 7/02/05
Hooray Real Estate!
-Southern Arizona raw land market hot, hot, hot 7/14/05
-Mexican construction could get boost in U.S. 7/16/05
-Tucson housing prices flatline 10/17/05
-Tucson-area home-price rise resumes 11/10/05
-Housing market shows further signs of cooling 11/16/05
Soft Landing, like we all expected...whew, dodged a bullet!
-More housing markets called overvalued 12/10/05
-Home-sales pace has stabilized in Tucson, Arizona 04/13/06
-Speculators abandon Tucson's housing market 05/24/06
-Speculators say adiós to Tucson home market 05/30/06
-Foreclosures go up sharply in Tucson, Arizona 06/04/06
-Losing shirt in Tucson 07/01/06
Slower growth ahead for Tucson economy 06/08/06
uh oh, ughh.... but Seattle's different, right?
I wish someone would start a lowball blog featuring local properties, or at least a weekly lowball feature.
I'm with you Christina. Goodness knows there are enough of them (lowballs) out there.
But you'd never know it reading this astoundingly bullish Bubble blog.
In the past, when individual posters have posted such info, they are accused of LYING!!
Any real facts that are put out there by posters that shine a spotlight on the turn of this market are pretty much ignored or berated.
Please! Isn't there anyone in the Seattle area who can start a respectable bubble blog?
Where is the discussion of the excellent post made a few days ago showing Seattle absolutely at the top of Neg Am loans in this country?
Where's the discussion of increased DOM's and price reductions? Both have been rising all year!
Instead, we get crap like "Benefit of Homeownership is being able to see Mt Ranier". Renters are blind you know, they cannot see it.
Please please please I know it's time consuming and am sorry I'm not internet savy enough to do it myself, but will somebody please start a new Seattle blog?
BTW, Chris, your "Top 10 Hottest Markets" is about the worst company anyone would want to keep: FLA, AZ, Riverside County, CA? Give me a break.
Please! Isn't there anyone in the Seattle area who can start a respectable bubble blog?
In defense, I think The Tim's blog is great, we've got enough bears roaming this blog to doom n' gloom the Seattle market to death. This blog is constantly entertaining and I think it attracts a wide variety of folks, from prospective homebuyers, mortgage/RE/escrow folks, disgruntled renters, etctera...
I think any critizism is completely undo.
The Tim's posts come from the local media, and if anything they're the problem. I've written the Times repeately begging them to shed a little more light on the neg-am/suicide loan proliferation in Seattle and absolutely nothing. This is the 900 lb Gorilla in the 475ft NoMa Ballard Studio Condo and no one in the local media dare touch it.
Any real facts that are put out there by posters that shine a spotlight on the turn of this market are pretty much ignored or berated.
Really? I would say the last month around here resembles an actual debate, something Tim seems to want/encourage. If you think that "fair" is bears posting their interpretation of the facts without being subject to discussion, that's an echo chamber.
For example, bears had posted that increased listing price reductions coupled with sale decreases would inevitably lead to median price declines. I chose to point out that despite those two facts, median prices have not yet declined, meaning that it is possible to see listing price reductions and still have home price appreciation. This does not mean I think housing prices will continue to rise, just that I do not think housing price trends are tightly correlated to listing price reductions or sales decreases. The economic reality of the RE market is clearly more complex.
How is that ignoring or berating?
On the topic of negam/suicide loans, there was an interesting post at a Boulder Real estate blog about Why Boulder has the lowest percentages of foreclosure in that state despite having many ARMs/etc. His statistics show that there is (at least) a correlation between income/education levels and foreclosures. One might argue that, despite high levels of ARMs/IO loans, an area with higher incomes is more able to absorb the mortgage price changes.
BTW - Starting your own blog is easy. Go to blogger.com and follow the instructions. It's free. Almost zero technical knowledge required, really.
But you'd never know it reading this astoundingly bullish Bubble blog.
I just have to say, that is the most amusing thing I have read all day. Yeah, this blog is really very bullish. For reals.
Hah!
Seriously though, if someone wants to put the effort into posting things like "flippers in trouble" or "low ball" for the Seattle area, I'd love to invite you as a "team member" to the blog (like S Crow is) so you can post it right here. I just have these pesky things called a "job" and a "life" that get in the way of spending much more time on this than I already am.
sue, sarah:
If I had the access to NWMLS data, I would contribute or start a blog. However I am not a real estate professional. My interest in this blog is to use it as a barometer of the local economy.
And I too am subject to malicious and impish impulses: I could corrupt the theme of the blog by posting examples of likely mortgage fraud, or schadenfreude stories of people buying Federal Way condos at the top of the market and then having to foreclose before they even have an opportunity to get out of the private mortgage insurance clause.
Odd, this is a very bearish blog. Other than Meshugy, jcricket and the occasional anonymous poster, almost everyone here is bearish, myself included.
Matt- That IS the problem!! As you say, the posts are from the local media so are inherently skewed.
By the time the local media gets around to acknowledging price reductions and increased DOM's, the market will have already tanked by at least 20%.
Inventory in Ballard (98107), our canary market, has increased from 49 plus 10 price reduced on June 1 to 98 plus 19 price reduced on July 26.
In plain English, that's 59 to 117 in less than 2 months, more than doubled.
Per Zip Realty.
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