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Thursday, August 24, 2006

Lawrence Yun is back

From the New York Times today-

“‘Certainly, the housing market is undergoing a measurable adjustment,’ Lawrence Yun, senior economist with the Realtor association, said. The bloated inventory levels, Mr. Yun said, indicate ‘a very sudden change which I have never seen before.’”

-Lawrence Yun, NAR economist.

Earlier this year, he mentioned that he expected Seattle to achieve 30-40% median price increases. I'm no fan of economic problems, but I don't see how the 30-40% increase in median prices will happen.

21 comments:

Anonymous said...

inventories are still pretty low...

08/21/2006 4,789

LOW POINT was earlier this year
01/07/2006 3,122

compare this to Atlanta
08/21/2006 45,420

or Pheonix
08/21/2006 27,489

or Miami
08/21/2006 38,459

and seattle is fine..

richard said...

Phoenix:
10070 home listings in MLS (courtesy of Ziprealty)
475 sq miles
1.46 M population
21 listings per square mile
145 people per listing

Seattle:
2500 home listings in MLS (Zip)
83 square miles
574K population
30 listings per square mile
229 people per listing

Sure, Phoenix has more listings vs the population, but it's only 57% more than Seattle, not the 27.5K/4.8K = 575% more based on the numbers you posted.

uptown said...

Check out the rentals on Craigslist...3300 for Seattle-Tacoma

"love that meshugy" said...

Tim, I love the new Bubble Poll. Your cast of vultures makes some serious coin, ready to wreak havoc when the foreclosure seminar folks start drawing in the crowds again. Or not...I have my doubts about the voracity of your carrion eaters.

Alright you numbers/statistic crunchers, tell me what ‘anonymous-sus” 50% increase of inventory in approx. six months means...

Better yet, never mind. Comparing stats from months/years/decades ago, or from other markets adds up to squat. A fast rising inventory shows that six months of bubble articles/news on the wire and in the papers is starting to screw with the psychology of the market. All of Meshugy’s (love you man, hang in there) numbers don’t mean dirt when the bloom is off this rose, and mind you, this rose is going to start smelling like the “Corpus Flower” up at the Volunteer Park Conservatory.

I was at a wedding a month ago, this 26 year-old was asking me if he should sell the rental house he bought 2 years ago in Kirkland that’s gone up 50% in value and has a no down arm and negative flow. I told him to take the advice of our time’s wisest real estate sage. Homer would say,”DUH!!”

dash_point said...

inventories are still pretty low...and Seattle is fine

According to Bubble Markets Tracking:

Phoenix/Maricopa & Pinal Counties:
Population 2006: 4 million
Listing per population ratio 1/30 1:123
Listing per population ratio 4/30 1:90
Listing per population ratio 8/13 1:75

Seattle/King & Snohomish Counties
Population 2006: 2.46 million
Listing per population ratio 1/2 1:305
Listing per population ratio 4/30 1:261
Listing per population ratio 8/9 1:197

Clearly, Phoenix has more inventory, but Seattle's numbers are now approaching Phoenix's (per capita)inventory of last fall, where the downturn started earlier. Seems to me both cities are headed in the same direction.

meshugy said...

If California is our future...then it looks like we'll see a return to 3%-6% appreciation.

C.A.R. reports sales decrease 29.9 percent in July, median price of a home in California at $567,360, up 5.1 percent from year ago

Home sales decreased 29.9 percent in July in California compared with the same period a year ago, while the median price of an existing home increased 5.1 percent, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) reported today.

So sales are down...but appreciation is basically normal now. Many areas are higher...LA had 6.8% YOY, San Fran 4.1%, and the High Desert 11%. Some places were a bit down...San Diego -0.7% and Sacramento -2.4%.

This is probably what Washington will look like next year. Less sales, lower appreciation. But nothing too catastrophic.

synthetik said...

Seattle inventory is exactly where San Diego inventory was in Dec. 05

1 listing per 196 persons and rising.

We're right on track to bubbledom.

Anonymous said...

How much are they paying you Shugy?

Seriously, someone with your knowledge and access to numbers is involved in the RE industry somehow.

The most damning evidence that you are a paid shill (other than all the nonsensical pom-poming) is that you say you current own a $500K home in Ballard.

If you really did own that home and followed housing, economics and these blogs so carefully, you would have sold off your house in late 05 like the rest of the smart money.

I don't see this as a personal attack and I'm sure others have thought the same thing.

If had a large company that had a 100% vested interest in RE NOT going bust, I'd have 100 paid shills doing the same thing.

The problem is that no matter how many mosquito-like shugies we have there is nothing that can be done. Not even the fed can save us this time.

meshugy said...

Seattle inventory is exactly where San Diego inventory was in Dec. 05

1 listing per 196 persons and rising.


If you consider all of King County AND all of Snohomish county Seattle. Even then, I don't think he has the population right.

If we look at Seattle proper, we have a July 2005 population of 573,911 (the census actually does show Seattle pop. up from 563,374 in 2000.)

Zip Realty currently shows 2569 houses for sale in Seattle. So that gives us a ratio of 1 house for every 223 people.

Also, inventory has pretty much flat lined in Seattle over the past 2 weeks.

Here are the #s from Zip Realty:

8/15: 2565
8/16: 2549
8/17: 2554
8/18: 2536
8/19: 2576
8/20: 2586
8/21: 2562
8/22: 2551
8/23: 2546
8/24: 2562

SO it went up to a high of 2586...and down to a low of 2536. But today were almost right back to were we started at 2569. Doesn't seem like the inventory is really piling up anymore.

jpsfranks said...

Been reading this blog a couple of weeks now. Very interesting everybody. Keep up the good work.

Anyways, Lawrence Yun was on the NewsHour on Wednesday with a guy from Moody's. Nothing Seattle specific and nothing that's news to people here, really, but I YouTubed it in case anybody wants to take a look.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OegQfnv0n2k

Also, Paul Krugman has a fairly pessimistic bubble related op-ed in today's (Friday's) NY Times. They've made the op-eds subscription based, though, so I guess I can't provide a link.

marin_explorer said...

If California is our future...then it looks like we'll see a return to 3%-6% appreciation.

Something could be said about median prices, and how that reflects on individual home appreciation, but it's been said before (yawn)

Yep, "normal" appreciation is CA's future--LOL.

bobbyj0708 said...

"If California is our future...then it looks like we'll see a return to 3%-6% appreciation."

Wrong answer.

The lagging indicator of median prices here in Orange County are now negative month over month according to the OC Register. Care to take another guess as to what the future "appreciation" is going to be?

meshugy said...

The lagging indicator of median prices here in Orange County are now negative month over month according to the OC Register.

But still up YOY....

bobbyj0708 said...

Why did I bother...

PepeDaniels said...

One striking statistic posted not long ago was the census count for Seattle.

I was surprised to see that Seattle only recently rose back above it's 1980 level by a few thousand people. It had taken one hell of a dip for some time. I suppose you can draw different conclusions about this.

In my relatively small place of employment, I know four different people who have decided to pack it in for other places due to the cost of living and the frequently dismal weather here. One woman is leaving for a sunny climate and the house of her dreams for a quarter of what she'd pay her in Seattle.....

Anonymous said...

Since May 5th, according to Zip, the Seattle area has gone from 22,000 listings to over 30,000. And the pace is not slowing at all, it's a steady upwards line. By December everyone will accept the obvious, that all the RE tactics are just delaying the inevitable.

meshugy said...

Since May 5th, according to Zip, the Seattle area has gone from 22,000 listings to over 30,000.

Not sure how you got those #s...the MLS shows:

Seattle Res/Con Invenotry May 2006: 1914

Seattle Res/Con Invenotry July 2006: 2279

About 365 house more for sale since May.

Anonymous said...

maybe anon 10:06's numbers are for seattle metro area, and mesh, yours are just for seattle city proper? either way, mesh, your numbers show an average of 10% increase in inventory MOM! a 20% increase from may to july!!

meshugy said...

either way, mesh, your numbers show an average of 10% increase in inventory MOM! a 20% increase from may to july!!

Yes...it's up this year. But still behind previous years:

July 2004 Seattle Inventory: 2,427

July 2003 Seattle Inventory: 2,917

July 2002 Seattle Inventory: 2,889

July 2001 Seattle Inventory: 2,801

Currently at 2279...we're still way behind 2003, 2004, etc. Other then 2005, it hasn't been this low in 5 years!

Anonymous said...

The argument about our current inventory levels makes me laugh.
The greater depression that is coming will make this argument trivial.

With all the ARMs dealers in my neighborhood, its no wonder the market is going to HELOC in a hand basket.

Run the numbers and then run for cover.

Crashcadia

Anonymous said...

Meshugy's argument boils down to this: "It won't crash here, because I already invested too much time and energy claiming that it won't in internet forums, and I'm going to flog this dead horse till there's nothing left but bones."

It's over already, all the "it's not a bubble" rhetoric spilled elsewhere has come to naught, and Seattle will be no different. Time to cowboy up and face reality.