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Sunday, April 01, 2007

Seattle Bubble Concedes Defeat

Well everyone, it's been a fun couple of years, but the time has finally come for Seattle Bubble to throw in the towel.

We've analyzed the local market from every conceivable direction, explained all the logical reasons why today's Seattle home prices are not sustainable, watched the national housing market turn from boom to bust, but still the home price increases in Seattle carry on. At this point, there is only one logical explanation why home prices in Seattle have not fallen: Seattle truly is incredibly special.

Of course, I don't just mean "special" as in "isn't it nice to live in a place with such delightful weather, exciting sports teams, and enlightened liberal politics that have solved all of our social problems." Sure, those things are great, but lots of cities can make the same claims (San Francisco, New York, etc.). No, in order to truly understand why real estate prices in Seattle will never go down, one must consider so much more.

Indisputable facts that make Seattle the most specialest place on the planet:
  • Every single house sold has stunning views of Mount Rainer, The Olympics, Puget Sound, and at least three lakes.
  • The Microsoft money factory in Redmond runs non-stop, printing millions of hundred-dollar bills every hour, which are loaded into Boeing planes and dropped from the sky daily, scattering the free money to all homeowners.
  • Every homeowner is issued a brand new pretty pink pony at closing. (Thanks, Chris)
  • Ponies for EVERYONE!
    The waters of all the rivers and lakes contain healing powers that extend life indefinitely, thus allowing homeowners to take on increasingly longer-term loans. This will inevitably lead to the "forever loan," in which principal is never paid down, only interest paid, while the homeowner merely kicks back and enjoys the unending benefits of double-digit appreciation.
  • Ballard.
  • Thanks to Growth Management, not only is it true that "they're not making any more land," but in Seattle, the available land is actually shrinking daily! By 2050, the only buildable land will be within a five-block radius of the Space Needle. 2,000-story ultra-luxury condos will be erected, which will range in cost from $500 trillion dollars for a 50 square foot "sleep pod" to $42 septillion for the 500 square foot "presidential suite."
  • Stunning rainbows fill the sky every afternoon (see above).
Yes, Seattle is truly one in a million. One in a billion. One in a googolplex. With inventory at near-record lows and pending sales increasing over thirty-four percent from January to February, it's plain to see that there's no stopping Seattle's equity spaceship. Of course, all you really need look at is how much prices have appreciated in just the last year (11%, thank you very much) to realize just how special Seattle is.

It is time for this blogger to face the facts: Seattle home ownership is the path to indescribable happiness and untold riches. That's why I'm closing this blog, quitting my job, becoming a full-time Seattle-area home buyer, and recommending that all my readers do the same.


seattlehotty said...

April Fools!

refractedthought said...

Happy 4/1!

I was dying when I saw the rainbow.

Megan the Librarian said...

Ponies and Ballard?!? Sign me up!

Matthew said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Matthew said...

I was almost sad when I started reading this post, but then I realized that I am going to get a free pink pony!

Chris said...


It's about time you bears faced reality!!! You dorks spend all your time looking at "facts" and "figures", when you forgot the one statistic that makes $eattle truly $pecial: per capita ownership of pretty pink ponies throughout the Puget Sound is 18X the national average. (In Ballard it's 30X)

You also forgot some basic economic fundamentals that account for the projected +10% annual housing appreciation for the next 187 years. Micro$oft just released Vista; if you rub your copy of Vista, a genie appears and grants you 3.0 wishes (after you download the updates). Boeing is finishing development of it's anti-frat boy radiation gun, to insure that homeowners everywhere can live frat boy free. And the wizards of South Lake Union have mastered the art of alchemy.

Let's face it; you losers are just pissed that you're POF!!! (that's priced out forever in RE speak) Boo freakin' hoo.

SLTO Troll said...

good one tim...

I'm actually waiting for a shipment of pink ponies to clear the port customs and by tomorrow it should be available at every open house for the lucky buyer...

SeattleMoose said...

I just heard on the news that a bus caravan of CA equity locusts (retirees) going to Seattle from LA was re-routed thru downtown Vancouver WA so they could be honored by the Washington Association of Realtors (WAR) and representatives from every taxing organization in WA.

The busses disgorged the loci so they could munch their way thru apples (sauce), salmon (deboned), and other delectable treats native to WA. After washing down their feast with gourmet coffee, the loci were each given a free Zune (the brown one) and coupon worth 10% off of the full Vista (professional version only) purchase price.

Mayor Nickels and Governor Gregwar then each gave 1 hour speeches begging the loci to "dig deep and remember everyone who may have been left behind...reminding the loci that all their friends are also welcome here".

The president of the WAR burned a gas mask to the delight of the thousands of loci who cheered breathing the sumptious downtown Vancouver air. (which was ironic because later as the busses hit the road again....gas masks WERE needed)

The WAR then had a ticker tape parade for the loci comprised of RE industry professionals and their familys. Signs included "We Love EX-Californians", "By By = Buy Buy", and "You Are Our Salvation".

The caravan left Vancouver and last word is that they are headed to BALLARD!!!

Guess Shugy was right....

MisterBubble said...

I guess I should take this opportunity to formally announce what many of you already suspect: Meshugy is my other personality.

I've been on medication for years, but the personal and emotional stress I've experienced (due to missed equity) have driven me to a psychotic break. This, of course, explains a lot about the logic of "Meshugy's" posts.

I sincerely apologize, but then, I thought I had given you all a big hint with whole name-means-crazy-in-yiddish thing -- not to mention the fact that we both "live" in the wonderful land of Ballard. If only I could afford to do that! I missed my step on the equity escalator; with such spectacular home values and rising rents, now I can only wistfully sigh, and dream of living in that norwegian urban paradise!

No, I'm just a bitter, psychotic renter. I live in a hovel (next to a freeway and a frat house), and every night I heat my cat food over a candle, and curse the gods of real-estate fortune. That's when Meshugy really comes out to play....

Please give this Michael Horowitz fellow a break -- he's just an innocent musician whose identity I have cleverly appropriated to hide my psychotic tracks. Michael had the good sense to start climbing the equity ladder when it was clear that Seattle's Specialness was outpacing the Specialness of the rest of the country; he deserves only praise for his good financial sense.

In exchange for this truth, I ask that you help me: every time Meshugy posts, please ignore him. Just like the classic internet troll, multiple personalities feed on interactions with others. So from now on, whenever Meshugy posts, please don't reply! Or, if you must, say something like "Meshugy, we know who you are!", and leave "him" alone.

Thank you for your support, everyone. With your help, I will get through this troubling time!


Chucky Cheese said...

FYI - Jenna Bush is moving into the 2200 Westlake complex. Read all about it.

EconE said... you'll have some extra time on your hands as will all the other bubble bloggers.

I have an assignment for you all.



I hate it here...always have.

Let's stick it to the rich.
So..who's property values will you be taking down? dad's of course...but hey...collateral damage.

I'm sure that even the celebs have leveraged themselves to death buying here. The 'My Big Fat Greek Wedding' woman already had to sell out when they dumped her t.v. show.

Do you like the show 'Friends'?

Me neither...bunch of fake F's.

But we've got Schwimmer (loud ass party thrower) Kaufman (the creator)

Antonio Banderas & Sharon Stone.

Kathy Bates

numerous others.

What's that? you like the movie stars? about the Banks and the Big Financeers? Sure...we can't hurt them much...but we can air their dirty laundry.

Freemont (FMT)...yup...the McIntyre Family...the brother of the main dude at FMT recently passed away. I'm sure that family made plenty of money selling loans to people that will lose their houses. Hell...even the son (a childhood "acquaintance") is a Realtor.

Charlie Munger...yup...he's here also.

Many many others.

Is it possible to knock any of these people into the "poor house"?

no...absolutely not.

but we sure can be a thorn in their sides.

Being that Hancock Park has been determined to be the "oh so special" neighborhood in L.A. and only has 1200 houses in the neighborhood proper (even the outskirts like to lay claim to the Hancock Park name now) I think that it would be pretty easy to bring sales here to a grinding halt.

If you think you have run into an arrogant Realtor up there...come down here and see who's paycheck you'll be "cutting".

If you Google Earth the borders of the neighborhood are Highland to the West. Rossmore to the East (although you can go as far as Windsor or Lorraine) Wilshire Blvd to the South and Melrose to the North (however the north end only runs between Highland and Rossmore.

We can have fun with this...class warfare if you will. Believe me...I'm all for it. Class warfare has been going strong between myself and my parents for over 2 decade now...and we're the poor folks in the neighborhood.

All my true friends were from East L.A...certainly not Hancock Park.

Anyone game? I am computer illiterate and type at about 10wpm. You supply the blog...I'll supply the dirt...and believe me...there is plenty of "dirt" when it comes to this neighborhood...all the way back to its inception in the 20's.

Alan said...

My landlord told me today that he is raising my rent 300%. He was laughing as he walked away and I think I heard him mutter something that sounded like, "Priced out forever."

It is a shame since I had such a good deal and I am unable to find any other place to rent for less than 78% of my take home pay. It looks like I'm going to have buy now. Sure, my mortgage will be 118% of my take home pay, but I cannot run the risk of another rent increase. I met a guy named Guido down at the local pawn shop who tells me he has some opportunities available for me to make a little extra scratch. I may have to take him up on his offer if I want to make my new mortgage payments.

Anonymous said...



audit trail said...

I have to confess to Tim... As much as I want to take credit for future Nobel-winning economic analysis of Seattle real-estate (herein known as the Pink Pony analysis), I must give that to some other dude with my name. Here I've been basking in the glory of Tim's praise meanwhile the poor schmuck has been adressed as Flamer. Talk about insult to injury.

And now, back to our $pecial $seattle programming.

Deejayoh said...

Actually, there is a seattle bubble. But it is not a bubble in real estate prices - nosireee!!

It is a magic bubble that surrounds the city and protects us all from the vagaries of the economy in general. It allows our market to continue to rise to the sky unfettered by financing crises, economic downturns, or affordabilty issues.

Long live the bubble!

Deejayoh said...
This comment has been removed by the author.