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Friday, September 25, 1981

Monday Open Thread

This is your open thread for today. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.

10 comments:

Michael said...

Interesting discussion. Seattle 34% over-valued. Expect slowing appreciation and single digit growth for several years, as populations and incomes catch-up. Every is rosy as the Fed lands this puppy...

blueskitten said...

I'm sure there will be a post about this, but I just had to mention the 1.7% YOY decrease in prices nationwide from Aug 05 to 06.

"But... prices never go down!"

Anonymous said...

>I'm sure there will be a post about this

Yeah, that was big news this morning. I think I'm going to try to stick to Tim's idea about posting most Seattle related RE and economic news. It's widely available on Ben's and most of the national blogs.

My wife works less than 1/2 a mile from our house however I usually end up driving her (she's from LA originally).

We've got sirius radio which doesn't find the satellite until we've left the garage. Over the past few weeks, almost without fail, just as we leave the garage the first words are usually "So, Tom, is real estate moving the market today?"

tacoland said...

Housing date out today and down again…… Real Estate still continues up with no stop in site. The “bubble” has burst in like 4 cities in the US. I’m really beginning to think it will take 2 salaries & 60% of your income to buy a house. History & the data says otherwise…. But it is getting harder & harder to believe anymore.

Anonymous said...

>I'm still waiting to see hard evidence of a crash in the Seattle metro area.

Seattle is following the same natural curve of other bubble markets. Visual evidence of an impending crash is all around you. Listen to the conversations at restaurants and in coffee houses; listen to your friends. Then look at the data.

It's no different from San Diego in 2004/2005. Lots of speculation, lots of toxic loans = near term wailing, gnashing of teeth and the lamentation of the soccer moms.

Unknown said...

Nobody knows what's going to happen. Nobody has a crystal ball. Any prediction of the future is no more than an ananlysis of the current vectors and trends to make a guess about what it might or might not be like tomorrow.
We are in a historically unprecedented scenario with RE right now. This is being exascerbated by the economic condition of this country(ie savings level lowest since great depression). All things considered I personally find it highly unlikely that RE is going to continue climbing in Seattle, because like it or not Seattle is attached to the rest of the US. and the rest of the US is already showing some serious cracks in the damn. Will it all melt down? Who knows? Will it be a "soft landing?" Maybe. But I for one, as a first time homebuyer, deciding whether to buy now, or wait until the forecast because a little clearer, feel it's prudent to sit on the sidelines for a bit longer to see how all this plays out... Am I getting "priced out" of the market? Maybe. But I'd rather get priced out, than find myself underwater on a mortgage I can barely afford next year, or the year after.

Anonymous said...

>Is there any hard data that shows appreciation/inventory/etc in Seattle is following the same pattern as in other cities that have since gone bust?

You can compare Seattle to San Diego, which is often identified as the RE "canary in the coalmine".

Here is one way of looking at things.

Median Prices throughout each year:

$ 269,400 2000 San Diego
$ 230,100 2000 Seattle
$ 298,600 2001 San Diego
$ 245,400 2001 Seattle
$ 364,200 2002 San Diego
$ 254,000 2002 Seattle

San Diego had a big head start while Seattle was trying to finish dusting itself off due to being top heavy with TECH and AIRLINES during stock-crash, 9/11 and corporate scandals.

San Diego topped out at around $565K median price in 2004 before having almost 2 years of no growth.

You can also take a look at inventory levels on various sites; http://bubbletracking.blogspot.com/ shows that listing per population ratio:

On 02/05 was 1:360 in San Diego
On 01/06 was 1:305 in Seattle
On 07/05 was 1:216 in San Diego
On 08/06 was 1:197 in Seattle

Nothing scientific, but it appears that it's about a year apart on both counts - inventory and appreciation.

Today in Seattle there are 14K listings. A year ago in San Diego there were about 16K listings, then then inventory started going nuts...

San Diego thought they were different too. Mountains to the north and Mexico to the south. In 2004 I was being told that SD's population would double by 2010 - and where would all these people live?

Every region thought they were different, go back and look at the archives in blogs a year or two ago.

Boston is another fun city to compare Seattle to.

Realistically, as San Diego's median drops even closer to Seattle - why on earth would you expect prices to remain inflated in Seattle? Its' 70F year round down there!

Now that we have MSM reporting gloom and doom full swing, I just can't see how it would take a full two years to start seeing price reductions in Seattle.

This is a national bubble which will effect the entire country, no doubt about it. I know people don't watch TeeVee here, but the word will get out eventually.

Consumer confidence is going to take a massive acid bath which will result in probably the worst recession of my life.... I -hope- that doesn't happen -- but so far no one has been able to show me what the next big economic driver will be. The FED isn't going to save us... If there is some new thing to spend our money on it'll just delay the inevitable anyway.

we're going to make like Windows and reboot!

And the biggest toolie McTool Award goes to Dennis & Sunshine Smith - your friendly San Diego Realtors! Sunshine?

Anonymous said...

I really don't mean to offend, but it's just plain common sense at this point.

If every other bubble market in the country is unraveling what on earth would make you think we would be any different?

We're obvious at a peak, and if you buy now you're in for a major shock.

I see people with 2-5 year ARM's and I see future pain. You can't expect a market like this to do a 180 in 5 years.

I think people that purchased prior to 2001 w/ a conventional loan who work in an industry that won't be affected by a national recession will be just fine.

Seriously, give me one -good- reason why you shouldn't SELL your house and move into a rental at this moment in time. How much evidence do you need?

Why do people believe in things they can't see, yet refuse to see things right in front of them?

Anonymous said...

...a 360 I meant.

Anonymous said...
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