Seattle Bubble has moved! Redirecting...

You should be automatically redirected. If not, visit http://seattlebubble.com/blog/and update your bookmarks.

Off-topic comment? Interesting link?
Head over to the forums, or click here for open threads.

Monday, September 14, 1981

Thursday Open Thread

This is your open thread for today. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.

29 comments:

Peckhammer said...

Remember this: 296 square feet -- but it's home

Tiny condos in Belltown to start at $149,950


Yesterday, Dukes posted the following comment in this blog: "The last few fools will continue to be led into slaughter, we still have a couple of pied pipers amongst us who are still chirping, but when it is all said and done, they will be forced to eat their words in a heaping helping of humble pie..."

I generally share this same sentiment, but I am here to tell you that the fools are not being led... They are running full bore, and they represent a large herd. Sales began yesterday for MODA, the above mentioned subcompact condo project, offered at $500/sq ft. Here's what Ben Kakimoto, a Seattle Condo & Loft specialist with John L. Scott Real Estate, wrote in his Blog yesterday:

"Officially, sales began at 11 AM this morning for the 251 units, though several hundred people were given advanced purchase opportunities. By noon this afternoon, a good majority of the homes were sold, leaving only the sub-400 sq ft alley facing studios & one bedrooms available. Those units are priced up to mid-$200,000s."

There may be a gaping hole in the bubble, but buyers apparently view it as a window of opportunity.

biliruben said...

Hey Tim -

Could you post a link on the right to your sweet spreadsheet? I always struggle to find the latest version from you.

Thanks Man, and keep up the good work!

Nolaguy said...

$506 a square foot. Wow.

Does anyone know if that includes a parking spot?

What's the PITI + homeowners dues on one of those condo's?

Anonymous said...

I'm sure most of you have seen it, but Washington was a recent topic on Ben's blog:

http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=1442

Anonymous said...

It's the easy money, stupid!

http://tinyurl.com/f9dek

Check out the number of vacant houses. Up about 3 million from 2001.

Anonymous said...

More fall behind on mortgages. Washington is only 8.5%--that is low compared to the rest of the nation.

The Tim said...

Could you post a link on the right to your sweet spreadsheet? I always struggle to find the latest version from you.

Done. It can now be found on the sidebar under Real Estate Resources -> Statistics

synthetik said...

from the link above: Washington is fairly low, but higher than California which is at 8.2%. Even Florida is only at 10.1%. Mass is interesting at 14.4%; can intelligence play a role in this? If so, aren't there a lot of "smart" people in Mass vs. a lot of fairly uneducated people in Florida?

I guess the biggest factor is, coupled with a housing decline, how fast did homes appreciate and what type of job loss did each area sustain -- obviously much higher in middle america.

MORTGAGE DELINQUENCY RATE

Percentage of subprime ARM loans that were 30 days or more past due in 2nd quarter 2006.

Alabama 19.5%

Alaska 11.1%

Arizona 6.1%

Arkansas 15.7%

California 8.2%

Colorado 9.8%

Connecticut 12.6%

Delaware 12.4%

District of Columbia 8.8%

Florida 10.1%

Georgia 15.2%

Hawaii 7.5%

Idaho 9.1%

Illinois 12.9%

Indiana 16.1%

Iowa 15.7%

Kansas 14.7%

Kentucky 15.5%

Louisiana 25.8%

Maine 14.2%

Maryland 9.7%

Massachusetts 14.4%

Michigan 19.1%

Minnesota 12.4%

Mississippi 26.8%

Missouri 17.8%

Montana 10.6%

Nebraska 16.5%

Nevada 7.0%

New Hampshire 15.3%

New Jersey 11.6%

New Mexico 11.9%

New York 12.0%

North Carolina 14.8%

North Dakota 10.7%

Ohio 15.9%

Oklahoma 15.1%

Oregon 7.5%

Pennsylvania 15.6%

Rhode Island 13.5%

South Carolina 14.4%

South Dakota 13.5%

Tennessee 17.9%

Texas 15.9%

Utah 8.4%

Vermont 11.4%

Virginia 10.2%

Washington 8.5%

West Virginia 20.8%

Wisconsin 13.8%

Wyoming 9.6%

Note: Excludes loans in foreclosure.
Source: Mortgage Bankers Association's National Delinquency Survey

synthetik said...

Arizona and Nevada, two states that have been among the hardest hit have among the lowest rates, 6-7%.

My assumption is that speculation in those states ran VERY high, and those types are less likely to do sub-prime loans vs. your typical joe homeowner who bought in to the notion of "riding the equity train"

meshugy said...

Whoops!

Corrections & Amplifications


INVENTORIES of unsold homes listed on multiple-listing services in 18 major metropolitan areas grew 3.5% in August from July, according to data compiled by ZipRealty Inc. Inventories in the Seattle area were up 6.4% and Dallas were up 0.6%. Because of an error by ZipRealty, an article Tuesday incorrectly reported the increase for the 18 areas as 4.7%, for Seattle as 13% and Dallas as 16%.

The Tim said...

Yeah there's a reason I didn't bother linking to that article. I looked at the numbers myself and they weren't anywhere near what WSJ was saying. At least they issued a correction, which is more than can be said for USA Today...

meshugy said...

good call Tim...

sarah said...

Synthetic-

thanks for typing out the subprime past-due info.

And for your analysis!

sarah said...

Peckhammer-

Call me a cynic, but when the best the "Condo and Loft 'Specialist'" (LOL) for a Realty Agency (again LOL) can come up with regarding sales is "the majority were sold" I've got to wonder.

There are 251 condos. They ought to know the EXACT number that have been sold. And if that number is high, they should be PROUD to scream it from the roof tops.

No number? Give me a break.

I saw the NOMA condo showroom in Ballard about 5 months ago. At the time the salespeople assured me they were "practically sold out". Made it seem like you had a week or two to make up your mind and sign the documents.

Those condos are STILL being advertised. In fact, they are scraping the bottom of the advertising barrel with tacky little for sale signs littering the Aurora area clear up to 120th at least.

richard said...

Inventory is up again to 2741 - nearly 250 homes have been added to the market since the Labor Day lull.

Anecdotally, I drive past 2 homes that were pulled from the market 2 weeks ago, did not sell, and have NOT been relisted. Both are vacant.

Nolaguy said...

Anyone see this wacky opinion piece in the pi today?

"Real Estate Market Gone Wrong"

http://tinyurl.com/fbzed

Good to see a piece recognizing the housing bubble and risky exotic mortgages.

But the talk of "cultural consequences" and doctors playing the real-estate game like bitter traders is bizzar.

Peckhammer said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Peckhammer said...

sarah said...

Call me a cynic, but when the best the "Condo and Loft 'Specialist'" (LOL) for a Realty Agency (again LOL) can come up with regarding sales is "the majority were sold" I've got to wonder.


Well, let's find out... Posts to blog, waits for response,response is posted:

"I just called the sales center, it looks like there’s about 30 studios left, on the back (alley) side of the building.

By my math, that means they sold about 221 units.

biliruben said...

Thanks, Tim!

meshugy said...

Inventory is up again to 2741 - nearly 250 homes have been added to the market since the Labor Day lull.

A lot of that seems to be condos/townhouses. A heap of them were dumped on the market in the Greenlake/Ballard area. Many are only 50% done. Seems like builders want to get rid of these fast...maybe they feel this is their last chance?

SFH inventory around Ballard still seems pretty tight. MLS shows over the last three months that most of the N.Seattle areas haven't gained any inventory....many even lost some. S. Seattle and farther north areas like Bothell seem to be taking the brunt of the inventory hike.

I took a walk with my son around Ballard and saw 8 sold signs and only 2 for sales. Most stuff still seems to go in 1-2 weeks.

richard said...

It looks like the Detroit Free Press map showing income losses per state was flawed because of mixed data sources. Census bureau shows an average drop of only 2.8% vs the 6% shown in the article.

Media map gives wrong directions on incomes

seattle price drop said...

According to Data Quick, San Diego median is now down to where it was in April 2005. Yep, that's '05. For all types of housing.

No *wonder* the Seattle median and the S.D. median have been moving so close over the past few months.

That's over one year appreciation lopped off the top and the show's just getting started.

Next week Senate hearings on Lending practises. For your viewing pleasure on CSPAN.

Wednesday I think.

seattle price drop said...

sad to hear about all those people who just bought condos BTW.

Tragic.

Amit D. Chaudhary said...

As those interested in home pricing, thought I will post a link to the
Google Gadget for Zillow Zindex Graph
I wrote.

Thanks
Amit

The Tim said...

Thanks for the link Richard. I'll try to take a look at the Census data this weekend and post an update to correct the data for Washington State.

Amit C said...

FYI.
Seattle has second highest inventory increase among 18 metro areas as per article in RealEstate Journal.
Quote: The biggest increases included 8% in Orlando, 6.4% in Seattle, 6.1% in San Francisco and 5.6% in Miami.

tiny url for article
http://tinyurl.com/rlhpd

synthetik said...

>amit

very nice add on! It's sits right next to my Boondocks cartoon.

I set the region as 98105 (Ballard) since it's my personal opinion that that particular zip code will be the black hole of Seattle

meshugy said...

I set the region as 98105 (Ballard) since it's my personal opinion that that particular zip code will be the black hole of Seattle

That's actually Laurelhurst...

Try 98117...Zillow shows:

Appreciation:

30 days 1.2%
1 year 16.2%
5 years 70.0%
Since I bought (April 2005) 25%

matt said...

Since I bought (April 2005) 25%

Nuttin' like buyin' high, eh Meshugy? To bad I didn't run into to you 5 years ago, I could've sold you my Kozmo/Pets.com stock...