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Monday, March 05, 2007

Bubble Link Roundup

It's time to clear out all the news alerts in my inbox again. Here's another round of local real estate links from the past few weeks:

Did I miss anything else worth noting?

16 comments:

Y said...

I like this article from Yale's Robert Shiller. It is all about human psychology.

"I've been reading old newspapers and advertisements to see how past booms ended. It's usually when stories start to circulate that embarrass people who believed in the boom. For example, there was a Florida land boom [in the 1920s]. There were stories of people buying land that was swamp. Booms end when prices start to fall, and then there are stories of buyer stupidity that are told and retold. I sense that's happening now.
"

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/07_11/b4025100.htm?campaign_id=rss_topStories

Gaurav said...

The 2nd largest Sub-Prime leader New Century Financials got crushed in the market today loosing 60% of its stock value in one day taking down backing banks like Citibank check it out. http://www.cnbc.com/id/17465302/site/14081545/

People in seattle are still stumbling over each other to pay top dollar for a simple roof over their heads, what is wrong with people in seattle ?

Matt said...

Damn! I was told to watch for the New Century situation, did they get bought? Are they dissolved? I guess its better to happen now than 3 months down the road when I was counting on it for a few different reasons to stay around. I guess they all deserve it, to build a product based on fantasy, knowing what a broker should know about ability to pay, they are judged on people's ability to not pay. If they could pay, the sub-primes wouldn't be around, because most people who pay hate paying!

This post probably doesn't make much sense, I'm just venting because I'm probably losing a commission (has NOTHING to do with the mortgage business), but I guess I'm seeing the starting point of the effect on the economy. These folks who make a s--tload of money on these loans are now dissolving themselves, just like their customers!

I said it before, the MOST people I see who have BK's are loan officers. They're all payment driven in their own lives, so now they are pretty much screwed, and when they can't spend money, i'm hit as well.

But I'm a cheap jew (literally), so such is life, I'll just go back to eating matzah and butter for dinner, instead of Kosher steaks from PCC, and live like the last deal I made will be my last.

If I was as smart as Ehlua (sp?), I'd probably be more paranoid. I'm off to build a bunker, buy a vile of acid, and watch the nuclear holocaust from the beach somewhere.

Banteringbear said...

Forgive me, but I choked on my own saliva while reading the article on Bremerton. It seems, during these bubble times, that every abortion of a town in this country has undergone some incredible transformation (overpriced luxury condos anyone?!), and is being touted as the next hip new place. Well, I've got news. Bremerton is a sh!thole, and always will be. Unless, of course, they get rid of the PSNS, and all of the section 8 garbage which calls it home. That place has a LOOONG way to go, and to insinuate otherwise is a bald faced lie.

Matthew said...

Bantering,

From a classic Sir-Mix-a-Lot song

Now Bremerton's a city right outside of mine,
Most girls there are ducks but a few are fine
But the ones that I speak about, use their faces catching trout,
Vacuum cleaners for a mouth, You know what I'm talkin' 'bout
Mud Ducks, Hocky Pucks, Drivers of Mack© trucks,
Lame brains, Deisel Trains, to pick them up you have to strain,
Big Butt, Crew Cut, Extra-Ordinary Gut,
Big Mamma, kinda buff, facial hairs kinda rough
The Girls a Bremelo!

Richard said...

Granted, I've never tried to make a "night out on the town" in Bremerton, but I've never heard of anyone else doing it either.

What east sound area does it compare to? Kent? Everett? Kirkland? Ballard?

Eleua said...

matt,

Don't confuse confident paranoia with smarts.

Bantering,

Yes, Bummerton is a real hole for the EXACT reasons you cite.

I admire the mayor for his optimism, but he is not a realist.

You can't polish a turd.

Eleua said...

I've never tried to make a "night out on the town" in Bremerton,

Bremerton isn't exactly a destination for anyone with anything to offer.

Back in the day, we would go cruising on Pacific Ave. It was fun at the time for 16yos looking for something to do. I look back on that and wonder what I was thinking.

That was the most redeeming thing about Bremerton night life in 40 years. Kinda puts those $500K condos in perspective, doesn't it?

matthew said...

I love how throwing up some shoddy condos/townhouses is now what they call "revitalization of the community".

It seems like they are doing the same thing across America. I was visiting my parents in the Tri-Cities the other weekend and they were saying how great the Tri-Cities has become and they are even building condos on the river!

I was like "Mom, get back to me when you guys have that Nordstrom in the mall they have been saying they have going to build for the last 20 years".

Give me a break.

redmondjp said...

matthew said: I was like "Mom, get back to me when you guys have that Nordstrom in the mall they have been saying they have going to build for the last 20 years".

Give me a break.


Couldn't let this one go--I grew up in the Dri-Tri and lived there for 30 years. Sure, it's not Seattle, but a lot of people like that (many of my HS classmates moved over to Seattle and vowed never to come back--but at 10 & 20 year HS reunions, I was surprised to learn how many of them had returned there to raise their families). Besides the much nicer weather (albeit colder in the winter), one can actually still AFFORD a house there! Can't say that for anywhere within 50 miles of Seattle.

And the mall has had a Bon Marche (now Macys) since it opened in 1970. OK, it's not exactly the same as Nordstroms but close enough. You want Nordstroms? You take a day trip up to Spokane and shop your heart out. Then return to your affordable home and nice weather in the evening.

matthew said...

Redmond,

Yeah lots of people move back, I call them "lifers". Sure its affordable, but so is Detroit. I guess it might be an ok place to raise a family, but the city itself really has little in the way of food, entertainment, and nightlife.

I lived their for nearly 20 years, and have absolutely 0 desire to ever move back. I'd rather be poor as dirt living in a major city, than be the richest man in the Tri.

matthew said...

I guess I'm just a big city type of guy.

redmondjp said...

matthew,

I've lived in Seattle (area) now for the past 12 years. I'll admit I was loathing the traffic and high housing prices (even back then, when compared to Tri-Cities) when I first moved over, but have come to appreciate the entertainment choices available over here--like being able to go to a Mariners game after work on a weeknight. So I do like it here, but cannot rule out living back in the Tri-Cities at some point in the future either. Definitely something to be said for either place, depending on what's important to you.

Matthew said...

Redmond,

Agreed. The older I get, the more I can appreciate living somewhere with a slower pace and affordable housing.

Terry said...

Hey, banteringbear, matthew, and richard, you be dissing my hometown. And yes, eleua, I did my share of cruising Pacific Ave when gas was 50 cents a gallon.

Bremerton is mostly a blue collar town. Probably always will be. Without PSNS Bremerton probably wouldn’t even exist, except as a parking location for the ferry to Seattle.

As for the condo’s mentioned, they are built on / near the waterfront by the ferry terminal and I believe the idea was to entice downtown Seattle workers to buy these living spaces for the easy commute to work via the ferry.

These condo’s did sell quickly. You can see the big jump in median condo prices in the January 2007 NWLS stats for Kitsap County. There were only 33 condo sales with a 270% increase (from 159k to 435k) in median price. I have no comment as to their real worth, and I sincerely doubt PSNS workers bought those places.

RE Developer said...

Foreclosurepoint is interesting but detailed foreclosure listings are already available in seattle for free on propertyshark.com