February Stats Guesses Anyone?
With February behind us, would anyone care to venture a guess as to what the NWMLS stats will show when they're released in the coming week? Here are my baseless predictions for King County:
Median Price (Closed)What is your guess?
Res + Condo: $372,000
Residential: $425,000
Condo: $272,500
Res Only
Active Listings: 6,250
Pending Sales: 1,900
3 comments:
I'm expecting sales to be down, but everything else more-or-less stable. Reality still needs some time to sink in, but I think the tightening of lending standards will eventually cause Seattle to suffer a sharp correction -- that is to say, sharper than markets that aren't behind by six months. When that tipping point will come, I can't really say, but maybe this summer.
I agree that median SF will edge up slightly so just north of 430k. I am not too concerned about February's or March's numbers. I more concerned with June and July. That is when it will become very clear that there is too much inventory and lagging sales. Prices should start to adjust by then, a little. I don't see any real price drops until the foreclosures start to hit. Pierce and Thurston Counties will be hit especially hard.
There are still a lot of builders sitting on a ton of inventory waiting for the Spring bounce. They can't wait out another slow year.
Developers won't be able to sit on their finished lots any longer either. Banks should start to force their hand. So far, the selling season has been pretty good.
My guess for listings would be around 7,000 for King County. Pending should be around 3,000. I have access to the MLS but haven't checked for the month but do check it regularly.
Here is my Guess
Median Sale Price for Residential: $430,000
Median Sale Price for Condo: $289,900
Homes that went pending in Feb:
Residential: 2191
Condo: 817
Not sure how you are figuring active. Is that number of homes that went on the market in February or at some point in February how many homes were available for sale. There is a big difference between these two numbers.
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