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Thursday, March 01, 2007

February Stats Guesses Anyone?

With February behind us, would anyone care to venture a guess as to what the NWMLS stats will show when they're released in the coming week? Here are my baseless predictions for King County:

Median Price (Closed)
Res + Condo: $372,000
Residential: $425,000
Condo: $272,500

Res Only
Active Listings: 6,250
Pending Sales: 1,900
What is your guess?


deeplennon said...

Why not...

Res $430k (stable til spring)
Condo $270k (down 5k)
Combined $370k (down 10k, from a higher proportion of condos making up sales again, the last entry level refuge)

Res listings 6400
Res Pendings Sales 2000

CRichard said...

Res price will jump back up in Feb. Closing price has been tracking Pending price with a 1-month lag quite consistently. Last month's Pending price was the highest ever (by <$1k).

Haven't a clue about total active and #pendings. My local tracking was showing activity on both fronts to be eerily muted until this past week, when thing seemed to heat up.

My only real prediction is that the Feb numbers will set off another round of “Seattle is different™” and “You can’t go wrong with Real Estate™” huffing and puffing by the usual cast of squawking sycophants.

David said...

I'm expecting sales to be down, but everything else more-or-less stable. Reality still needs some time to sink in, but I think the tightening of lending standards will eventually cause Seattle to suffer a sharp correction -- that is to say, sharper than markets that aren't behind by six months. When that tipping point will come, I can't really say, but maybe this summer.

confused said...

I agree that median SF will edge up slightly so just north of 430k. I am not too concerned about February's or March's numbers. I more concerned with June and July. That is when it will become very clear that there is too much inventory and lagging sales. Prices should start to adjust by then, a little. I don't see any real price drops until the foreclosures start to hit. Pierce and Thurston Counties will be hit especially hard.

There are still a lot of builders sitting on a ton of inventory waiting for the Spring bounce. They can't wait out another slow year.

Developers won't be able to sit on their finished lots any longer either. Banks should start to force their hand. So far, the selling season has been pretty good.

My guess for listings would be around 7,000 for King County. Pending should be around 3,000. I have access to the MLS but haven't checked for the month but do check it regularly.

Richard said...

Looking at Redfin's site, and based on my own observation ALOT of North Seattle properties that sat all winter got scooped up in February. I have no guess on the actual #'s, but I wouldn't be surprised if they show an upward trend. (Note this is only from zips 98117, 98177, 98133, 98115, 98105 and 98103 - hardly a representative sample).

With the drop off in subprime and the highly anticipated tightening in Alt-A mortgages, I imagine there is a push to buy now while there are still lenders willing and able to underwrite these loans.

uptown said...

Well Windermere shows 8,148 houses and condos in King county for sale (pendings included) right now.

More interesting is the the amount of vacant land... 1104 properties. Also 196 multi-family properties; and I quote from many of them "perfect for conversion" (all over priced in IMHO).

ab said...

Here is my Guess

Median Sale Price for Residential: $430,000
Median Sale Price for Condo: $289,900

Homes that went pending in Feb:

Residential: 2191
Condo: 817

Not sure how you are figuring active. Is that number of homes that went on the market in February or at some point in February how many homes were available for sale. There is a big difference between these two numbers.