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Saturday, September 03, 2005

Talking About Me Behind My Back

It seems that my blog interests at least a few people other than myself. Thanks to the wonders of StatCounter, I have unearthed the blog posts of some other interested locals. These fine individuals are none other than:

Do you have any thoughts on the points made by some of these other local blogs about Seattle's bubble(s) or lack thereof? Be sure to read the comments on those posts, as I posted my own thoughts on a few of them.

P.S. (Timothy Goddard's blog seems to be experiencing difficulty at the moment. Be sure to check it out in a few days.)

4 comments:

Timothy said...

My site's back up now--by the way, wouldn't you think that the coming exodus from the Gulf Coast area, and New Orleans in particular, is going to continue to drive up home prices nationwide?

marin_explorer said...

It's interesting to note how various blogs cite others in their commentary on the RE "bubble". Judging by several comments at those sites, it appears people still confidently state "the bubble isn't here", offering a few well-worn phrases about the "unique situation" of their market. I'm a little surprised the bubble isn't yet obvious in Seattle--despite seeing it for myself recently. Perhaps that's just the psychology of a bust's beginning, as chronicled at the Van blog.

"This is not the case here in Seattle because the forces driving up prices are inherent to our market."

Timothy said...

I don't think there's anything particularly special about Seattle--though the fact that it's wedged in between water and mountains puts space at a premium. There's not going to be a housing deflation anywhere that population is increasing.

The "unique situations" are the ones that lead to "popped bubbles," not the other way around. That's why people like the other Tim have only a few scattered examples to point to.

marin_explorer said...

There's not going to be a housing deflation anywhere that population is increasing.

Two assumptions there. Firstly: housing gains in recent years have been driven soley by worker influx--and not investors, which the NAR averages at 23% nationwide. Secondly: the rise (or fall) of housing demand compared to inventory. If inventory is rising faster than demand, than price increases make little sense (all things being equal).
I used to live in Seattle, and a few things I've noticed during a recent visit: dramatic increases in "hot market" areas, and rapid building (volume) outside of Seattle. My guess is this: people who are enjoying gains in RE assume these prices gains are permanent, and increasing forever; the'yre still in what I call the "euphoria phase" of a bubble. Here in Marin,CA, where the bubble has burned hotter and longer, the euphoria is gone--people cannot sell their homes at their perceived "value". What is true here will become true in Seattle; it's only a matter of time.

The real player in this scenario is the credit bubble, the RE speculation that ensued, and the fallout that is inevitable.