Million Dollar Homes "Worth Every Penny"
Okay now this is just weird. Remember how the Times and P-I articles about April home sales both had an inordinate focus on the sales of really expensive homes? Well guess who else joined the party? The Everett Herald, with a story ironically titled Worth every penny.
The dream of buying a million-dollar home is unattainable for most working families.Perhaps Herald writer Christina Harper read the Times and P-I articles the day before and felt that Snohomish County needed similar coverage, perhaps it was a total coincidence, or perhaps "Christina Harper" is yet another pseudonym used by our favorite real estate reporter Elizabeth Rhodes. Who knows.
Yet 2005 saw a huge increase in luxury home sales throughout the Puget Sound area - including Snohomish County, where 83 homes valued at $1 million or more changed hands. That's up from 23 in 2004.
Whether it's a two-bedroom older rambler on acreage in Arlington or a posh condominium in Edmonds, there is something for everyone in the price range of our dreams - and more people are buying high-end homes than ever.
"I don't necessarily think it's a trend," said Greg Hoff, owner of the Edmonds Windermere Real Estate office. "I would call it just the general housing market."
What used to be a $500,000 home is now a $1 million home in many areas. Although Hoff is always a little surprised when he sees a home sell for seven figures, he's no longer taken aback.
Whatever the case, one thing that the Herald article amazingly leaves out is the obligatory declaration by a local realtor that "the notion of a bubble is definitely dead."
(Christina Harper, Everett Herald, 05.07.2006)
28 comments:
And we wonder why median price in general still goes up? Throw a few million dollar homes in to the mix and that's what you get.
But with the YOY median decreasing in Millionaire Heaven Medina for 2 months straight, this could end soon.
March '06 YOY: -30.5%
April '06 YOY: -10.14%
Yes, we've reached the 'new paradym plateau', a brave-new world of Real Estate like mana from heaven...
Well, considering wages have been flat as a pancake for the past 5 years and actually in the red with regard to 'real wages', where's all this magic money coming from to buy 7-figure homes?... dead relatives? pots of gold buried in the backyard?
I'm guessing its probably equity rollover from the inflated RE bubble and exotic lending from the cheap money glut. Call me crazy, but its just a hunch
I'm sure the people in Laurelhurst who've had their million dollar homes on the market for months are hoping these articles work their magic!
Both the median and mean are equally bad, if you use them to summarize data that isn't distributed symmetrically. If most of the homes sold last month were in high-end markets, both the median and mean home prices would jump, but the reality would be far more complicated to explain.
What we really need to know are statistics on home sales within particular price ranges -- are homes below $400k experiencing a slowdown? Homes worth more than $1M? Who knows...?
Hi Dukes,
What area are those stats covering? Just King County?
You're showing 700-800 new listing a day...that would mean there is over 20,000 new listings a month. King country only had 4,741 new listings last month.
You must be looking at the stats for the whole state of Washington. Honestly, that tells us very little about King County. All those price reductions, expirations, etc are probably crap land around the tri cities, enumclaw, or some other god forsaken place.
Can you give some more info on what this data?
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in a situation where the number of homes sold is 3K or so, the median is a very sensitive number...
if it was 20K homes sold, then it would be more stable...
People who unload houses first are those who have the most to lose... and the investor who bought a 500K or so house isn't necessarily dumb... he probably reads these blogs and watches the news... he knows the game is up...
the average buyer/investor living in his investment is more likely to buy into the hype and hang on to his home as much as he can... or he has no choice.. he needs to live somewhere... plus he probably has a spouse who doesn't want to move... or kids that don't want to transfer schools...
i wonder if there's any sense in comparing in a graph the median vs the mean and seeing how much disparity exists between the two...
if you want to watch what is happening, check places that are heavily leveraged and have a median home price that is far above traditional affordability indices. check for foreclosure proceedings on the King County website and see where they are. hell, go down on the courthouse steps one Friday and watch. it is very interesting.
This sounds like my idea of a schadenfreude good time. What's the URL for checking the foreclosure court schedule?
Could someone post links to the other info about Elizabeth Rhodes and her aliases? Sounds interesting!
Thanks
anon @ 1:39,
I was referring to this post, where I quipped "Seriously, is 'Kathy Mulady' really just a pen name of Elizabeth Rhodes or something?" I don't seriously have any real information that would lead me to believe that Ms. Rhodes actually writes under an alias.
Of course, this comment assumes that you were serious. If not, I suppose the joke's on me.
hey tim,
thanks, i was serious - it honestly wouldn't suprirse me at all to find out it was actually true.
and thanks for keeping up this site - great info!!
thanks,
Inventory seems to be dropping this week...
This morning the #'s were:
King County: 7,205
Seattle: 2,095
Today at 1:45pm:
King County: 7,179
Seattle: 2,084
Here's what happened the last few days:
Monday:
King County: 7,214
Seattle: 2,107
Sunday:
King County: 7,249
Seattle: 2,127
Realtors have told me that most new listings come up on Wednesday...maybe we'll see a spike tomorrow...
'm
Meshugy,
Oh my god! Eleven listings in six hours!!! At this rate, we'll be out of houses by the end of next month!!!!
Seriously. Stop being silly. The trend line between "this morning" and "1:45 PM" tells us nothing. For all we know, the decrease in listings could be panicked realtors yanking their previous listings to promote "freshness".
Tim's plot (in the previous post) was a good use of statistical data. You're just worrying the numbers to death....
Hi Anon,
Yes...I'm being a nerd. But it's fun!
Anyway, the major trend is that they have been going down since Sunday. For a week before that we were going up pretty fast and now are trending down again.
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Thanks Dukes...
I actually have been watching that house...they originally had that ugly as hell 50s brick thing up for $540k! Even at $480K it's way overpriced.
It's mostly likely a flipper in trouble. Was bought last May for $419K. They're probably getting nervous and need to unload it fast...
Here the record: 1514 73rd Ave NW
I don't think Ballard is any better then other Seattle neighborhoods. It's just a good place for me...
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You'll also notice that the aforementioned property has an ARM (1yr Treasury ARM, Fixed for 3yrs that just adjusted UP in March). Seen by continuing to the County document search site and go to Deeds of Trust recorded for the subject or any home.
Didn't you hear dukes? They're building a 'great wall' all along Phinney Avenue to keep out the Bear Barbarians from crossing in forever, I live here and its a bizarre utopia where cash literally pours out of dingy craftsman, I don't really even need money anymore, I just give the grocery store my address and they give you a wink with the "You're good for it because you live in Ballard'!!!" I have a slot machine like apparatus built into my wall, every day my house makes and extra $1000 in appreciation, the cash just flows out onto the floor... I've stopped working! Its a miracle here, a grand experiment, euphoric to say the least!!!!
Thanks for loan info anon...
Dukes: We're pretty happy with this house so I think we'll keep it for now. We could live here the rest of our lives, so I think we should be able to weather any trouble ahead.
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Eric D- How true, maybe you guys should issue ID cards to keep us Seattle "House Happy Fools"
out!!
We can cause a lot of devestation when we're determined.
What do you say folks- is it time to set our eyes and Tacoma and catapult it to HOT!!!! RED, no make that BLUE- isn't blue the HOTTEST part of the flame.
HOT HOT HOT RE FOREVER!!!! AND EVER!!!!
Anybody who pays a million dollars for a home in the Seattle, short of an acre on lake washington (no others) is an idiot. I've known people in medina, and while a lot of them are either gazillionaires, many are people whose families have been in the area for generations, and probably own
scads of rental RE or whatever.
A million dollars in the bank would guarantee you at least a 50k income doing nothing. With that money you could go a lot of places and
live in a lot of great spreads in a lot of gorgeous places, including places
where spring doesnt come in Feb for two weeks and then rain on the weekends for months until July 5. This place is great because its mellow and its not the hellholes that most major US cities are, but cmon, there is still hawaii, santa barbara etc. Paying a million dollars for a home in Edmonds is drinking the whitebread bluehair suburban koolaid.
I agree that I bet there are people sweating out there on the peripheries.
Stock 'advisors' were claiming that exurban growth was another one of those 'new paradigms.' While it may be true that people can work from a distance with the net, from what I've been reading, people that bought in rural areas around other RE hotspots are losing their marbles right now, and prices are shooting downwards. Noone wants to live that far away
with energy costs being what they are.
Its happened, Exurban is DEAD. That may be the only thing that saves
Seattle condos, depending on supply. Shoddy construction is an issue
appearing as well, but mostly elsewhere seemingly.
People who buy million dollar homes are idiots? Can't you say the same about expensive cars and expensive jewelry? If someone can afford such a home, he is not going to puke his guts out if gas is at $5 or even $10. Another food for thought: not everyone's wage has been stagnant.
to Anon,
Of course someone who has amillion dollars to burn isnt gonna care about $5 gas. I'm not talking about the TINY percentage of those who have money to burn. Problem is, many Americans imagine themselves to be wealthy when they are not. They leverage themselves into ever-increasing debt because they like to pretend to be rich. If you anything about economics, youd know that the masses of poulation support the economy, not a small percentage of rich people. This of course, is an effect of drinking Republican koolaid for 20 years. So yeah, someone who buys a million dollar home without having
another say 5 million is an idiot. And anyone who pays a million dollars for a home in Edmonds is an idiot unless its a ten acre estate, and then they're still an idiot, because living on Lake Washington near Seattle or Bvue is about the only place in the state a home should be worth that much. The nouveau-riche never get it. Such is the American wealth stepladder psychology.
By the way, i dont suppose $10 gas, which isnt happening, wouldnt just utterly destroy the American economy, and you're so-loved wealthy person's company and investments wouldnt go into the dumper as a result. Think a little about interconnected economics before slavishly worshipping the rich guy.
Love live the immune rich man that we admire and love so much! I'm in the poorhouse, but Long Live that Suburban Rich Guy!!! He's my Hero!!!
Man, Americans are lapdogs to power....
It is very convenient for people like you to think everyone who is living large and the rest of America are making only minimum payments on their credit cards every month. If that makes you feel better, more power to you.
$10 gas will destroy the American economy? Maybe, maybe not. One thing for sure is oil/gas/refinery stocks will go even higher than they are now.
As long as one lives below his means, there is no problem. If one doesn't, well, poor and stupid often go hand in hand.
Anon 1:02-
Well said, if people live below their means, they're fine.
Problem right now is, too many Americans are doing the oppposite.
yeah, another sure thing is that MSFT would be a great stock forever, and its been going only down since 2000 after the six times it split. I dont have your crystal ball to tell me whether oil and gas stocks will go up forever, but you dream as much as you need to. You imagine there's never gonna be another energy or metals or stock or RE downturn, and then I'll scoop it up when you're boohooing.
I didnt say the truly rich arent rich, although I could easily say that most of them inherited their wealth and didnt earn it, for instance, the Waltons, including that anti-labor wench daughter of Sam's, but that doesnt contradict my point that a lot of Americans who claim they are living large are just pathetic shells in debt to their eyeballs. Statistics bear this out, so you go to your country club and blow $200 on dinner to prove to yourself you're still special. Then ponder why this country might fall apart because of 'class warfare'.
Everyone can spend some time studying the stock market and improve performance. But you sound like you want to be poor just so you can complain about the rich because being rich just ain't right.
The poor are often the ones you are ranting about. Credit card debts, spending without thinking. Aren't these the same people you are advocating for?
"I didnt say the truly rich arent rich, although I could easily say that most of them inherited their wealth and didnt earn it,"
And I can easily say that you are shockingly wrong in your assertions. Please provide some statistics supporting your claims. This should be very interesting. You are perpetuating a myth.
What I want to know is, why would anybody who is "rich" be looking at a housing bubble blog?
Crap, if I was sitting pretty it's about the LAST thing I'd be doing with my time.
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