Sales, Prices Up Slightly In Olympia
The Olympian wins the contest again for having the first story in my inbox about April's numbers. Their story only covers the Olympia area, but it should be enough to whet your appetite for the full NWMLS numbers that are supposed to be released later today.
In April, home sales rose 10 percent over last year, according to preliminary data released Thursday by Olympic Multiple Listing Service.To hear Rolf Boone tell it, everything is rosy in Olympia. However, note that inventory is up 34% from a year ago, while demand is only up 10%. While not as extreme as last month, when inventory was up 77% and demand up 19%, it's still a slowing trend.
The sudden increase in April home sales is partly because of seasonal factors, such as better weather. But it also reflects Thurston County's strong economy with 4.3 percent unemployment, said Olympic MLS Manager Jerry Wilkins.
...
From March to April this year, the median price of a home rose from $244,000 to $252,200. The median price of $252,200 in April was 22 percent higher than the median price of a home for the same period last year.
The 10 percent increase in the year-to-year April figures reverses an earlier trend in which March home sales declined by 1 percent.
...
April had 1,113 active home listings compared with 832 for the same period last year, according to the Olympic MLS data.
(Rolf Boone, Olympian, 05.05.2006)
14 comments:
Does anyone know where to find data that show historical house prices in King and Thurston counties? I am very interested in learning how the prices behaved in the past market downturns, how much the prices dropped and how long the drop/stagnation lasted. Thank you so much for posting links if anybody found any. Do you think these numbers are reliable?
http://www.economagic.com/cenc25.htm
Some more price history:
http://www.ofheo.gov/HPIMSA.asp
Keep in mind also that the "one in five new jobs" bit is only considering construction, and doesn't even take into account all the other jobs that have been created during this housing boom in mortgage, real estate, and other related fields. Jobs which we are already beginning to see disappear...
The April MLS data is up here:
April MLS
Looks like another record month in Seattle:
Median Price up 16.56% to 410K
Inventory down 4.18%
Pending sales down 14.85%
Price Drop and Dukes had been reporting all month that most houses were being severely underbid. But the MLS #s tell us the prices are going up.
Do you think NWMLS is actually manipulating the #s to fool us? What a scandal that would be...
Hi Price drop...you're tracking Laurelhust, right?
That is area 710 on the MLS data. The data shows a 7.37% median price increase and a 1.17% increase in pending sales. You had mentioned your research was indicating a lot of underbidding.
DO you think this is some sort fluke...a dead cat bounce or something?
One problem with using the median is that it's very dependent on the kind of homes being put on the market...
it doesn't explain square feet or age of home... just price..
One factor to look at is that as the market cools and corrects the highest hit are usually the luxury homes and more expensive units... so they're likely to hit the market first...
It may simply be that the people selling are the ones with pricier homes, thus driving the median up..
It's very deceiving without knowing all the data...
say for example 100 homes are on the market and the median is valued at 500K... that means there are 50 homes that are sold for less than 500k...
Say for example 10 of the homes under 500K decide not to put their homes on the market... and 10 homes above 500K go on the market...
The median goes up by a factor.. since the previous 60th most expensive home suddenly becomes the median (due to the previous median dropping down to the 40th most expensive home in the list)...
So even with price cuts the median could still go up... simply as a result of the quality of homes on the market
What would be intersting is to peg the data on a fixed entity say a 2000sf home on a 10000sf lot built after 2000... I would expect more fluctuations from that data... and it would reflect real market conditions...
Dukes-
I have a question in reference to the "price reduction" category on the NWMLS:
If a home is taken off the market for a bit and then re-introduced with a new MLS# and a reduced price, does it go into the "New Listings" category in the NWMLS or does it go into the "price reduced" category?
See if your realtor relative can tell you the answer to that, would you? Thanks.
Meshugy-
I do not understand your difficulty in comprehending how sales prices can be lower than asking price at the same time that median goes up.
HERE: let's explain:
I bought a house in "04 for 400K.
I put it on the market in "06 for 1 million.
I sold it for 800k.
This means:
200K reduction in asking price AND median going UP.
Do you get it now???
Dukes-
Pretty surprising that the people who have access to the numbers do not know what they mean. That is just nuts.
Anyway, I hope you will keep posting them as often as possible. It's cool that you have access on a daily basis.
Thanks
Hi Price drop..I perfectly understand houses sold below asking.
However, you seem to be implying that houses selling below asking are a signal of weakening market. That's only true if the underbidding is actually driving the median price down. That's not happening in Laurelhurst, the median is going up...which means that regardless of the asking price, the real value of houses in that area are going up, not down.
That's all I'm saying...
'm
Meshugy- We have discussed this before so forgive me if I sound abrupt.
My reasoning: Houses in Seattle were selling like hot cakes and ALWAYS being bidded up for the past several years.
That has STOPPED. Now many* HALF* according to the daily NWMLS#'s are selling at reduced price.
DOM's are mounting to a place we have not experienced in years.
To me, this indicates the TOP and I conclude that the median WILL go down from here.
YOU, on the other hand, need to see the house next door selling for 50K less than what it sold for last year before you can see a change.
When houses appreciate as much as they did in Seattle, it is going to take a while for the median of the whole city to go down.
Meshugy, I hate to say this, but I'm starting to think you are either a troll or, dense.
These concepts are WAY SIMPLE to understand and we've gone over it before. We are just going to have to agree to disagree on how to call the top on an RE market.
I have no problem accepting and understanding your criteria.
It is baffling to me that you are continually confused by mine. Seems pretty freaking staightforward.
In a market where everything was bidded up, it IS a sign of weakenng when things sell below asking-
do you call it a sign of STRENGTH??!!
BTW, in the 98107 (Ballard) zip, there are 32 SFH for sale, 9 of which have been price-reduced. That's almost 30%. Does that really indicate a red hot market to you? Almost 30% reduced?
Don't answer. Just think about it- or don't. Believe what you want.
Hi anon...or are you dukes?
Anyway, for the most part I'm not making any predictions here. It's very hard to say what the market will do. Even the most experienced economists are consistently wrong in their predictions....no one ever thought the housing bubble would get this big.
All I've been saying is that the monthly reports from the MLS are clearly showing that prices are going up (median price was up 17% for King County in April). A normal market would have 3%-6% appreciation.
Dukes himself said that neither he nor is brother (who is a Realtor) knows what the daily mls reports actually mean. Until you figure out how to interpret that data, I'd say it's safer to just analyze the monthly reports which have all shown median price going up.
Are you actually saying that the MLS reports are wrong and that prices are going down? That would mean NWMLS is fixing the #s...maybe they are. Show me some proof.
And I'm in no way saying that prices might not go down next month...I think it's likely they won't. The market is just too strong right now. If you say you're seeing signs of a dramatically slowing market, that's fine. We'll know when we see the inventory pile up and the prices drop. That simply hasn't happened yet.
'm
M- the Anon was me, computer problem poked me in as "anon".
Anyway, I thought it would have been obvious to you that it was me as it was a very direct answer to your question.
I can see from this last post of yours that you are infact 1) an idiot and 2) a friggin' troll.
You are becoming more and more unwilling to take facts that people lay before you at face value.
You are determined to twist what people say ( ie. insisting that I claimed 700 was Laurelhurst, saying D. has admitted that the realtors "don't know what the MLS#"s mean",etc).
You pick and choose and twist info to fit your little agenda.
You're a total jerk buddy, I'm ignoring you from here on out.
Here's hoping everyone else does the same.
I'm still amazed at how people think the median always represents home value...
it just means that the homes being sold are the more expensive ones...
somebody with a 1.5 mil investment has a huge carrying cost and is sweating bullets wondering if he's going to miss the market...
Since he's been flipping properties to get to the high end, he decides he's made enough and cashes out... he also joined the market early, so he knows there's not much left to be had...
People in the upper market are a different breed... nobody is buying homes to invest anymore... anybody who is investing lives in a bubble of their own... (and they can stay there)
The actual buyers who plan to live on the property are taking the deals as they come, knowing that even with a loss, they will come out ahead in 10 years... those are the ones pulling the median up...
Somebody mentioned that a surge in the median usually precedes the bust..
only time will tell
Post a Comment