Monday Open Thread
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29 comments:
Is it me or are there more homes that are marketed as 'reduced', 'motivatd seller', 'new price', or 'back on market' on Craiglists? I've been following this trend and one can see there are more now with lower asking prices than before.
Does anyone know the website where I can see the value that a specific address has sold for in king county or seattle? The king country recorders office website doesn't have a very friendly search interface and I was wondering if there was a better place.
Is it me or are there more homes that are marketed as 'reduced'
I have seen quite a few around town, most notably in Fremont. I was also surprised by what a person in my building said with regard to their conversation with a listing agent for the potential sale of their unit. The listing agent told them that they'd better get their condo on the market asap or be prepared to lose money.
Are you a housing bear? Were you a stock bear? If so, what type of bear were you?
The government has finally followed suit with a Senate hearing on the impending credit/housing bust or stagnation that the country is facing. If the Senate sees it, it's way too late to be enter into panic mode in listing a property. It's months too late now.
As for reduced prices, this has been an ongoing occurance in South King and North Pierce (Feral Way, N Tacaoma and Des Moines particularly) since June. There is a pretty heavy stagnation occuring on any property over $400k down there...
but what is 'market price?'
funny how everything goes up with inflatation except wages...
rachael
Here's a list of recent sales in Ballard 98117. For the most part, the massive over bidding seems to be over. Most houses are selling at asking or slightly below. A couple of way overpriced ones that went way under asking.
---------------------Ask-----Sold
8348 24th Ave NW 499,950 487,500
3258 NW 56th St 699,000 684,000
6528 26th Ave NW 475,000 379,000
8016 20th Ave NW 419,950 425,000
5807 17th Ave NW 394,500 375,000
7310 23rd Ave NW 575,000 573,000
6513 Jones AveNW 429,950 429,950
2835 NW 73rd St 409,950 409,950
6513 Jones Ave NW 429,950 429,450
7310 23rd Ave NW 575,000 573,000
8346 29th Ave NW 439,000 440,000
7524 30th Ave NW 410,000 425,000
7302 23RD AVE NW 450,000 450,000
Overall, sales seem very robust in 98117. But not as crazy as last year. Most stuff is still selling in 1-2 weeks, but there seems to less bidding wars.
Ballard... The last stand of the housing/credit bubble, long live Ballard!
Not sure how accurate these sites are -- but I believe the region tipped about 3 weeks ago.
Hard to say if we are in a true downward trend or just the normal slower Sept. market.
For example, the median for SFH in Sept. 2005 dropped to $381,250 from $385,000 in August.
2004 was even more similar to the current market. For SFH:
June 04: $329,000
July 04: $329,950
August 04: $329,000
Sept. 04: $329,950
Oct. 04: $325,000
Nov. 04 : $335,988
then went back down in Jan 05 to $329,950
It's hard to tell this time of the year...if we see prices falling through the Spring, then we'll know the game is up. The Spring is when the real appreciation happens. The rest of the year is usually up and down.
I'm assuming you are an "apocalypse bear",eh eleua? heh.
Yup.
I also am, or have been, the following:
1,2,7,17,27**,28,37,& 40
**Regarding "Elliot Wave Bear," I actually made some beds for my boys that have a curly maple inlay in their headboards that are dimensioned to the 1.618 ratio. The house that I have designed for when this madness ends has "phi" all over the place (windows, room dimensions, exterior elevations, rooflines, cabinet doors, floor designs, fireplace mantle, etc...)
In previous years, the price declines haven't been coupled with an increase of "price reduced" listings, and news reports trumpeting the end of the housing bubble.
I don't think it's a stretch to say that this year, something different is happening. How do you manage to type with your head buried in a pile of sand, shugy?
The U.S. unemployment rate is 4.7%
The official US unemployment rate is a meaningless number. The government tortures the stats to make them say what they want. If you are frustrated at the job market, and have given up looking full-time, you don't count. If you have 3 part-time jobs, and your two neighbors are unemployed, the Labor Dept considers the unemployment rate for you and your neighbors to be 0%, rather than 67%.
Inflation stats are even worse.
Anyone who bases their economic decisions on government numbers will be short on funds in the near future. They are produced for the benefit of Wall St, CNBC, and the Lumpenvestoriat.
The GOLDILOCKS Economy.
The hedge funds are starting to blow. Just heard something about it on CNBC.
Also, WAMU is going to to Europe with it's toxic bundles of loans to beg for buyers? (Sounds like kind of a "last resort" thing).
Anyone who has some better knowledge of these events, please illuminate.
Thanks.
The hedge funds are starting to blow.
Perhaps there wasn an energy price bubble. Here's the story Amaranth loses 35% Interesting to note that the "news release" was a letter to investors that Reuters obtained a copy of - not any kind of press release by the LLC. How many of these loses are yet to be reported?
I'd like to think that is is darned difficult to shock me with an example of financial stupidity, but someone actually accomplished that hurculean feat:
From a self-discribed "sub-sub prime lender in San Diego:
Let me tell you about just one borrower from today:
Husband and wife
Husband on fixed income military retirement $1800/mo
Wife makes $9500/mo as a registered nurse
5 properties with $3,400,000 in mortgages
All mortgages currently have prepays
8 interest-only mortgages
1 option ARM deferring $3500/mo
3 in Chula Vista and 2 in Escondido
No more than $75,000 equity in any of the homes (verified by comp checks with 3 appraisers)
All properties with front end LTV over 90%
$65,000 credit card debt $672 Mercedes payment
One property had 3 mortgages, one of them hard money
621 mid FICO
2x30 in the past 12 months
Not a dime in the bank
They have been making mortgage payments with their credit cards and refinancing to pay off the credit cards. They are at the end of their rope, but refuse to throw in the towel.
This is not even an "extreme" example. I could show you dozens of these every single week.
YOWZER!!!
If there is anyone left on this board that doubts PNW real estate will experience a thorough disembowelment, you seriously, SERIOUSLY, need to seek some strong medication and a lengthy course of professional help.
Today I was walking to lunch... A co-worker of mine had to stop and use the ATM. The person that had used the machine before him had left their receipt from their transaction next to the machine. The balance read -178.60. The owner proceeded to withdraw 20 dollars even though they had a negative balance. That is the idea of fiscal responsibility right now.
something else of interest... One of my co-workers just got orders to move to LA. He is putting his home up for sale and said six months ago his house was valued at 375,000. He is putting it on the market at 353,000 and his RE agent actually told him to drop it to 334,000. So apparently the RE agents are realizing they need to move inventory ASAP.
The senate hearings on "Non-traditional Loans", AKA "toxic" or "suicide" loans begins this Wednesday.
they'll probably show it on CSPAN, as they did last weeks hearings on the "Housing Bubble and the Economy".
I happened to luck out and catch most of that one at 11PM last Wednes. night.
Don't know what the schedule is for this week.
If anyone finds out, can you post the time here so others who are interested can watch? Thanks
The thing is, real estate "staying level" is a complete disaster for a credit system that depends on constant appreciation. If the speculators don't think they can make 15-20% in a year, their math doesn't work. 40-50% of all sales have been short term, those are all going away. And it's going to take 5 years to bleed down all this inventory.
Cue the usual "inventory is still at historical lows" retort in 3...2...1...
Here's a word of warning on how to spot a REALLY BAD realtor:
Friends of mine, the brainiest of the brainy for those of you who think brains are going to save the Seattle market, have been hemming and hawing about selling their in-city home since last spring. (Talk about missed opportunities!)
Finally made up their minds that now was the time. Called their realtor, who is, according to them, "a very good realtor".
(How many times have I heard THAT phrase? From now on, when people say that, I'm going to ask what their criteria is on judging a "very good realtor" Am really getting curious about that).
Anyway, here's what their "very good " realtor told them:
"Interest rates are going down in January. That being the case, they should wait til Jan. to put the house on the market."
RED FLAG:
The brightest economic minds in the WORLD cannot say for sure where US interest rates are going. All THEY can do is make educated guesses and they are currently squabbling amongst themselves over where US interest rates are headed.
But this lowly Seattle Realtor knows for sure what will happen and advises her clients based on this inside knowledge.
Unless this woman is the modern day Nostradomus, she has absolutely no business being in the business of "peredicting" interest rate movement for clients right now.
Any realtor who does so is pulling it out their a$$, period. Run, don't walk, to the next realtor.
"Presumably RE agents are realizing they have to move inventory right now".
That was the ONLY reason I could think of for that realtor to tell my friends to wait til Jan. to put their house on the market.
And she had to think of a reason that sounded plausible, so, in true realtor fashion, she laid it on interest rates.
Cue the usual "inventory is still at historical lows" retort in 3...2...1...
LOL!!!
I was thinking the EXACT same thing.
"inventory is still at historical lows"
Thanks for pointing that out Tim!
King 5 News doing a spot on scam mortgages tonight at 11PM. (Monday)
Helpful info for peope who are stretching on their payments and getting calls from sleazy brokers to refinance into dangerous scam loans.
Greetings from San Diego. Good to see things starting to cool down a bit in the northwest. I think that San Diego has kinda been the canary in the coal mine for this whole thing and I'd like to offer a little insight. (I've been lurking here because I plan on moving back to Seattle sometime next year).
Are you nuts? Haven't you heard this is a horrible place with the worst weather and the must smug people in the USA? I thought you'd be reading this blog?
s crow -
Smaller, local mortgage players selling out to wall street is recently being driven because of the fact that big wall street banks want "raw material" to build up mortgage backed securities packages. MBS trading was the big money maker in fixed income trading in the last few years, and the big banks (Morgan Stanley, Bear, Merrill,...) want to ensure their supply of mortgages.
re: seattle inventory:
seattle inventory is growing at one of the fastest rates in the nation. this was reported in some news article last week and you can go to benengebreth housing tracker to verify.
That nausbaum guy is a spammer trumping his RE get-rich-quick book. He's posted the exact same comment on other bubble blogs.
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