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Monday, October 23, 2006

Anecdote Extravaganza

It's been a while since the last anecdote post, so I thought now would be a good time for an update.

First up, let's go way back to early June. Remember the million-dollar new construction in Redmond? It was originally listed in mid-May for $1,625,000, and the last time we checked in it had taken $130,000 in price reductions, dropping the price to $1,495,000. It has now been languishing on the market for 159 days, and taken two more price drops—$70,000 on 09/05 and $150,000 on 10/14—for a new grand total of $450,000 (28%) off the original asking price. Do you smell that? I think that's the smell of desperation.

It's been two or three months since my former coworker and her husband moved to California, and their rural King County house still has not sold. However, the good news is that they did finally lower their asking price (though not by much), from $490,000 down to $480,000. I'm still predicting that they won't sell for much more than $430,000.

Remember my coworker that listed his rural Snohomish County home for $350,000, then dropped down to $305,000 and announced that as the "*FINAL PRICE REDUCTION*"? Well apparently he wasn't kidding, because after receiving no bites for weeks at that price, the house was taken off the market, and hasn't reappeared in the months since. I know that he has moved to Moses Lake, so I can only assume that he is now paying two mortgages and hoping that next spring will save him.

I got an email from a friend (that I don't see often enough) a few weeks ago, enthusiastically telling me that he and his wife had just bought a condo... in Kent. From what I can tell, they paid just over $200,000. I didn't even know they were looking. I still haven't responded to him, because I just don't know what to say... all I can think of is "that's exciting."

Lastly, lest I be accused of cherry-picking only the most dismal-sounding stories, I offer the following tale from the Fremont / Greenlake area. I mentioned this friend's story in passing, but (by request) I was saving the full story until after the closing date. After doing some relatively inexpensive (under $5,000) sprucing up to improve "curb appeal," the house was listed in the $450-$475k range. They collected offers for a week, receiving a total of 11 offers (five of them over $500k!), and eventually closed for over $510,000.

It should be noted that before listing, when my friend asked his agent "what is available in this neighborhood for under $500k" the answer was "nothing." It is also worth pointing out that Zillow's estimate of his home's value came in at around $535k. While I don't think the close-in neighborhoods are likely to slow as much as those further out, I think his "price low and see where the bidding process takes you" strategy was a good one (it's what I recommended he do when he told me he was selling his home). As far as I can tell, that seems to be the best way of determining a home's true "market value."

So what have you been seeing "on the streets" lately?

6 comments:

David Aldrich said...

Someone I know has been *trying* to sell their Queen Anne condo for the past 62 days.

Details:
Beds: 2
Baths: 1
Size: 828 sq. ft
$/Sq Ft: $440
Year Built: 1991
Style: Condo (1 Level)
Views: City, Lake, Mountain, Territorial, See Remarks
Status: Active on market
On Market: 62 days

What the details don't reveal is that part of the building is in a slow state of collapse, that all the penetrations on 3 elevations of the building are improperly papered/flashed , and all the windows on those same elevations need to be replaced.

Of course, if you haven't even gotten a single offer, and she hasn't, these factors haven't even come into play yet. The seller blames the lagging sales on the fact that the lobby needs a second coat of paint.

One last detail: The last unit sold of similar square footage was priced at $320K and sold for $315K -- and it had one more bathroom and a second parking stall.

David Aldrich said...

Oh... and the asking Price: $364,500

meshugy said...

Here's a list of recent sales in the Loyal heights area of Ballard. Over half were sold over asking...suggesting that it is still a very compettive market. Most homes in this area still sell within 1-2 weeks.

Asking price first...sold price second.

6738 26th Ave NW 549,950 580,000
8349 19th Ave NW 450,000 475,000
7350 Jones Ave NW 579,500 585,000
7309 21st Ave NW 559,000 535,000
6716 Jones Ave NW 499,000 485,000
8330 27th Ave NW 399,950 410,000
6733 Jones Ave NW 399,000 420,000
8042 17th Ave NW 399,950 380,000

Shadowed said...

I've related my anecdotal experiences on the eastside before, but I'll do it again since it's on topic.

My drive to work is about 3 miles through residential eastern Bellevue/Redmond. Over the last few months, there have been at least a handful of signs up at any given time, peaking at around eight or nine a few weeks ago. This is many more than I ever noticed before. A few have sold, usually in the block with condos, but most have sat on the market for weeks if not months.

I've noticed in the last few weeks that several of the signs came down without a "sold" placcard, which I assume means they were pulled off the market without selling. Some of these houses are already empty, which makes me wonder if they are now paying two mortgages. This has reduced the number for sale by about a quarter, but there are still a handful up. I'm also starting to notice "for rent" signs on some of these houses.

Unfortuantely, I don't have prices on many of these houses because I'm not planning to buy in the area. I do know that one that sold in Redmond was up for $535k, which floored me -- it was not a half million dollar house. I have no idea what the actual sale price was.

The house two doors down from where I live was up for $460k for several months, which is at least $40k higher than anything on the street has listed before, including last year, and well above Zillow for comparable houses on the street. According to the neighbors, they never got even a nibble. A few weeks ago the "for sale" sign was replaced with "for rent", and they want around $1800/mo for it, which is rediculous. It's still sitting vacant.

So the trend for this microcosm of the eastside is that inventory spiked with a small number selling, but now some are getting pulled for good or changed to looking for renters. So I wouldn't be surprised if the inventory numbers actually drop for the month, but I'm still seeing a lot for sale and more for rent.

Shadowed said...

Kudos to him for doing it right and getting into a house he can afford.

Michael said...

Notice this today on the King County Recorder site:

NOTICE: Deeds of trust filed in King County are no longer available online due to an ordinance passed by the King County council aimed at safeguarding personal information contained in online documents.
Deeds are still available in person at the King County Recorders Office in downtown Seattle.