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Monday, October 02, 2006

There Is No Spoon

A post by Susan Ryan over at the PI's RE Blog proclaims "Just Say No to Bubble Talk"
"As I've said repeatedly, stock market terms do not apply to real estate. There is no real estate bubble and never will be. A decrease in acceleration is not an implosion (or even a pop).

Kendra Todd of the Apprentice has a (sic) article on Yahoo Real Estate about the non-bubble. It's a pretty good explanation of what's happening around the country in real estate."
Even more absurd than the idea of her post is her mentioning of Apprentice star Kendra Todd. Her new book "How to Make Millions in Real Estate" is really making a splash over on Housing Panic.

Just say no didn't work for Nancy Reagan either...

Update: The Tim here, reminding you that if you choose to leave comments on Susan's post, please keep it civil. There's nothing wrong with passionate discussion and disagreement, but there's no need to be mean or spiteful about it. Thanks.

(Susan Ryan, Seattle Real Estate Professionals, 10.02.2006)

6 comments:

Eleua said...

Remember back in '99/'00...

The Wall Street Industrial Complex thought the previous methods of valuation, bubbles and bursts didn't apply to them either.

That is another calling card of a bubble: it is different this time.

seattle_slow said...

I'm getting sick. Seriously.

-slow

BizNiz said...

How to Make Millions in Real Estate must be a turd.
Really - Boise or Tucson are "attractive lifestyles or feeder cities that serve larger, overpriced metro areas".
I am trying to figure out if Tucson is feeder city to Nogales, Mexico or Casa Grande, AZ. As an UA alumni, I can assure you that with this type of statement this chick has never done her due diligence. As for Boise...what is she thinking? I hope this book flops.

Grivetti said...

Talking about a bubble implies a sudden burst, and real estate does not work that way.

Okay, if you're talking about exact metaphor, perhaps... maybe a 'duck market', wounded by some stray skeet, it flutters along until it eventually skids into the mud... whatever, semantics Kendra!!

You don't go to sleep one night with your house worth half a million dollars and wake up to find it's lost half its value.

So, I'm guessing her whole theory about 'bubble economies', is that they have to be susceptable to immediate corrections? This is the basis she's using to hawk her rag of a book? Well, unlike stocks, you can't unload a house in minutes, so I will give her that. I will give her this: houses do not usually lose half their value overnight, but again, you can't unload a house overnight, so if the buy/sell time-scale is the same, a crash is a crash and there's nothing you can do about it.

Also, the real estate market is a regional phenomenon based on all kinds of factors: migration to or from an area, job growth and local economies

As the 9-11 Commission would say, this is just a "failure of imagination". Yep, real estate in the past has been mostly local, and with regard to glamour cities and the coasts, they're way more bubblicious, but this bubble is due to one thing and one thing only... rock bottom interest rates and the sickening amount of credit being doled out to people who should've cut up their credit cards at birth.

And, Tuscon? Sorry, but this is pure crack-olympics here, she's smokin' big time... I'm guessing if it was "White-phosphorus Seattle-hot", we wouldn't be reading threads, entitled Losing shirt in Tucson

Steve Long said...

Her book is exactly the kind of tripe one sees at major tops. Even though there is example after example that the media is ALWAYS bullish at tops and bearish at bottoms, the sheep continue to line up to be sheared.

Remember the idiot who wrote DOW 36,000 right at the top in late 1999? CNBC just interviewed the same dolt! Talk about ringing a bell at the top. I've placed my bet that the so-called "recovery" in stocks is over right here.

Eleua said...

steve long,

Sooooo correct!

By definition, the herd is ALWAYS wrong at the major inflection points. The Bear always emerges when he can cause the most damage to the most people. I think the DJIA, NAZ, US$ and housing are all priced for perfection, and there just isn't much good news left. It's all one trade.

CNBC does provide a valuable service as they serve to sharpen those inflection points.

I have backed up the truck, although it hasn't always worked out well in the past.