Trend: More Price Reductions for Seattle
From Bubble Markets Inventory Tracking:
Percentage of Reduced Listings Per Market.
Ventura County:2006 Price Reduction history in Seattle, showing the clear trend.
10/22: 51.3%---> 11/18: 50.3%
Sacramento Metro:
1/30: 30.5%---> 10/20: 49.0%---> 11/18: 49.0%
Orange County:
1/30: 22.8%---> 10/20: 45.8%---> 11/18: 45.0%
San Diego County:
1/30: 26.3%---> 10/20: 43.9%---> 11/18: 42.9%
Phoenix Metro:
1/30: 28.0%---> 10/20: 43.2%---> 11/18: 42.2%
Riverside County:
1/30: 27.3%---> 10/20: 40.2%---> 11/18: 39.5%
Las Vegas Metro:
1/30: 21.0%---> 10/20: 40.0%---> 11/18: 39.9%
Los Angeles County:
1/30: 21.8%---> 10/20: 39.6%---> 11/18: 38.8%
Seattle Metro:
1/30: 17.1%---> 10/20: 33.0%---> 11/18: 33.9%
Santa Clara County:
1/30: 13.6%---> 10/20: 30.8%---> 11/18: 32.7%
11/18: 33.9%
10/20: 33.0%
09/14: 28.1%
08/13: 25.2%
07/13: 24.0%
06/13: 21.8%
05/13: 20.3%
01/30: 17.1%
(data courtesy of ziprealty.com)
7 comments:
Could just be that we in Ventura County are just more honest about reporting a price reduction. Then again we are down 3.1% y-o-y so it could be that we are leading the way. With a $590k median price we have a ways to go before becoming affordable however.
There are compensations, how's the weather? ;-)
lot of this are owners in denial thinking they still deserve the 30% YOY appreciation...
after a week of no interest, and an agent that doesn't bother to lift a finger until it drops to a reasonable price, reality sets in...
Actually just coz there are less price reductions doesn't mean anything... mass media is no longer in denial and the average joe can't really ignore that anymore and some will actually price to sell from the getgo...
then there's the mentality of looking only for those that have been reduced...
Just more anecdotal "analysis"...
Without exception, every person I chat up about real estate thinks we are at the bottom and 2Q-07 will be the start of another huge run in real estate.
My take on that prediction is as follows:
1 part Bravo-Sierra
2 parts wishful thinking
These housing bulls never saw the slowdown coming, so why would they have the precience to call the bottom and the next recovery?
Look for shorts-staining panic at the end of 3Q-07. The '07 selling season is going to be a real flop.
This article on Ben's blog really sums up where our market is going.
Once the X-Cal money dries up, sellers will have to compete with forclosures to sell their house. This is going to be a complete equity wipe-out.
I also believe this article only scratches the surface. Remember, the market isn't in full retreat - yet. Also, we are still in a relatively healthy economy. Once the housing market is widely considered to be a loser, and the economy sucks enough to be noticed by the GOP and CNBC, there will be an incomprehensible amount of pain.
Remember, the bulk of the 'Boomers'' retirements are in their residential real estate.
eleua,
The article you cite is full of cherry-picked anecdotal evidence.
1. Perhaps the typical investment behavior in Green Valley Ranch, TX has been irrational. However, King County buyers have been forced into rather conservative behavior.
2. Perhaps X-Cal money is big in Kitsap, but not at all so in King. BTW, where are your numbers?
Although your first post seems plausible, your second looks a bit like sensationalism.
I've noticed a lot of homes coming up fior sale on western Queen Anne, going up towards Interbay, at least 10-20 in an area that used to have very few. While the prices are probably double what they were 6 years ago, they vary wildly. A friend in the area tells me places have been sitting on the market for a month or more, unheard of before. I'm not saying its anything tangible yet, butwe've only just begun to collapse. The only problem is buying in a bottoming market is keeping a job.
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