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Tuesday, December 01, 1981

Friday Open Thread

This is your open thread for today. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.


PugetHouse said...

I've been taking many of my cues for research topics from this forum. Are there any requests for data?

Eleua said...

This is a must see.

The experts are often wrong. Believing them is the only mistake that is bigger.

Lake Hills Renter said...

I was flipping through the channels a few nights ago and there was a panel discussion on CSPAN on "non-traditional mortgages". Some of the stats they threw up (national, from what I could tell) were pretty interesting.

One graph charted the rise in subprime mortgages as a percentage of all mortgages since 1998 -- basically went from almost 0% to almost 25% in 8 years. They also showed percentages of subprime mortgages by race, which were very skewed toward black and hispanic lendees. Interesting data.

Lake Hills Renter said...

Ok, so I have a question for those that know the routines of the real estate industry. There's a condo on my way to work that has had a "for sale" sign up with a "sold" placcard on it for at least 3 months. Over the last year or so I've seen a few houses come on the market and sell, and the sign usually comes down a week or two after the "sold" placcard goes up, but this condo has had it up for literally months. What's up with that? Does it "mean" anything, more than a lazy realtor?

MisterBubble said...

Today I saw a complex of four townhomes, with a placard out front:

"Only three townhomes left!"

S Crow said...

Lake Hills-

It could be a long closing- unusual, but not unheard of.

Lake Hills Renter said...

For three months??

Eleua said...

A house in my neighborhood sold early in the Summer of '06. The RE agent said that it had an offer at an open house, and apparently she was right.

That was almost six months ago, and the house is still vacant. No 'For Sale' sign or MLS.

My guess? The house sold to an X-Cal who had to make an offer without contingencies, but his OC Brady-Bunch Tri-level hasn't sold.

I'm curious how many sales are being held up due to lack of sales in the Golden State. If the number is significant, this Spring could be more brutal than many anticipated (and I've anticipated quite a bit).

octopuswithafez said...

Average annual home price appreciation (1949-2006)*:

The newest graduate to join this elite class of super-expensive cities, Seattle is the least likely to hold its place. New zoning laws approved by the city council this year lift restrictions on building heights in the downtown core, and promise to generate $100 million worth of affordable housing.

buy now or forever be priced out blech!

Christina said...

If you think Seattle's bubble is the most egregious of the Pacific Northwest, you should check out Vancouver, BC. Keep watching, the last half of the video is a tour of what sells for $585K, $479K, $300K, and $4.888M.

Spend enough time in Vancouver, drop down here, and one marvels at the affordability of the Emerald City.

S Crow said...


We have had transactions fail due to Californian's not being able to sell property. San Diego & Lodi (Sacramento area) come to mind.

In other news, we have had an unusual number of PURCHASE transactions fail recently from fraud to inspection issues to lending/credit qualifying issues.

Certainly this is could be construed
as anectdotal by some regulars on this blog. Over 900 expired listings over the last 24 hrs. is anectdotal too (source NWMLS). So too is the continual list price reductions. The refinance business (we are closing just as many, probably more, sub-prime transactions than normal deals) sustaining roughly 2/3rds of our business is so lopsided it is moving into my yellow zone meter. Again, anectdotal.

I know many in the business read and comment on this blog, but I'd like to know what other colleagues are sensing on the street, per se. Is it just me or do others also get the sense that many IN THE BUSINESS have been getting tripped up in the 'flipping' mania that is now going sideways? Sometimes I wonder if many in the business were just as caught up in the mania as Joe Public. Being in escrow has allowed us to see spectacular gains and now, spectacular problems.


SeattleMoose said...

Inventory (from my control site: Glover RE) shows inventory has fallen back to Aug levels. Looks like folks are giving up and are gonna wait out the holidays....

Date / Listings / Delta / %
07-May / 7302 / /
15-May / 7486 / 184 / 3%
21-May / 7665 / 179 / 5%
11-Jun / 8099 / 434 / 11%
18-Jun / 8154 / 55 / 12%
24-Jun / 8352 / 198 / 14%
01-Jul / 8417 / 65 / 15%
08-Jul / 8758 / 341 / 20%
15-Jul / 9057 / 299 / 24%
22-Jul / 9139 / 82 / 25%
29-Jul / 9044 / -95 / 24%
05-Aug / 9059 / 15 / 24%
12-Aug / 9191 / 132 / 26%
19-Aug / 9348 / 157 / 28%
26-Aug / 9442 / 94 / 29%
02-Sep / 9363 / -79 / 28%
09-Sep / 9597 / 234 / 31%
16-Sep / 9959 / 362 / 36%
21-Sep / 10121 / 162 / 39%
28-Sep / 10639 / 518 / 46%
05-Oct / 10434 / -205 / 43%
14-Oct / 10428 / -6 / 43%
21-Oct / 10446 / 18 / 43%
28-Oct / 10374 / -72 / 42%
04-Nov / 10496 / 122 / 44%
11-Nov / 9987 / -509 / 37%
18-Nov / 9706 / -281 / 33%
25-Nov / 9550 / -156 / 31%
02-Dec / 9132 / -418 25%

meshugy said...

Looks like folks are giving up and are gonna wait out the holidays....

Actually, I think there's been a hell of a lot of sales. There are sold signs all over ballard...even this totaly ugly 50s brick house was flipped (bought 8 months ago for $407 sold for $569!!!!)It sold in 3 days....

7041 20TH AVE NW

Anonymous said...

$569K? hahahahahahah.

*wipes tear*

OH man...

wreckingbull said...

Shugilicious, you remind of the pilots of American Eagle Flight 4184. They both refused to believe that they were icing up since their plane continued to fly. They even joked about the high deck angle they had to maintain in order to keep assigned altitude.

The fact that some idiot paid $569K for a dump like that in a sub-standard part of Ballard should give you worry, not solace.