Wednesday Open Thread
This is your open thread for today. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.
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4 comments:
Hey guys,
Awhile back I asked for advice for a TV interview, and got some great thoughts here. The interview went OK, but I'm definitely better at writing than speaking.
So the local TV station did a story on the construction slowdown. They mentioned my video and played a clip of me talking about 5 problems with the housing market (except I forgot one in my nervousness and only mentioned 4.. oh, well).
Just picture this: The president of the Montana real estate association is quoted, followed by a 20-something guy with no direct RE experience who investigates the market by riding around new subdivisions on an old mountain bike. It's a funny image. I'm very grateful to the TV station (Q2) for adding a little balance to the story!
I also got a letter to the editor printed calling out our local paper on a slanted front-page housing article ("No Bubble in Billings"). Most Realtors in town admit that there's a slowdown, but the ones quoted in the article did not even mention it. On-line comments to the original article were overwhelmingly negative, while comments to my letter were all positive. Many people in town are aware of the problem.
Just trying to spread the word out here! Many people ask why I've done so much work (the webpage, the videos). Fact is that it started as personal finance.. investigating for myself to see what drives a housing market so I could eventually know when and where to buy. Over time, I've really lost interest in buying (even if prices were rational). The fact is that Realtors who do not acknowledge the possibility of a bust do a real disservice. And the ones who will suffer are my generation. Young people who know that they'll be stretching to buy a house, but are afraid of missing out and are reassured by some Realtors that prices will go up forever. If I can warn a few about the possibilities of overextending at the top of the market, then that is enough.
My December market update video is up now too:
Billings Housing Market
I think Seattle and Montana markets are similar. Neither had price run-ups near the magnitude of Southwestern states. But each is still irrational in light of incomes and price/rent ratios. Both seem to be on the trailing edge of the downturn, but it will come. If I had to guess, I'd say that Billings peaked this summer or fall. It's so hard to say here because real-time RE stats are so hard to come by.
By the way, Tim.. I don't comment here much, but your blog is the most fact-based and down-to-earth housing blog out there. And I like that respectful debate can (usually) be found.
Great video Doug!
The house around the corner from the house we are renting was put up for sale a few months ago. It was listed at around $700k. My wife and I thought it was insane and were looking forward to watching it sit on the market for a long time. It didn't. It sold in less than a month. We were amazed. Who was paying that much for that house when there were much nicer houses in the city for that price? Are we just completely out of touch with realty reality? How do people afford that?
Last week we saw the house listed for rent online. It was purchased by an investor.
This is an old (but interesting) article about the world diamond cartel. Pages five and six talk about a bubble that threatened the cartel and what the cartel did to stop the bubble before it caused too much damage.
http://www.theatlantic.com/doc/198202/diamond
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