Wednesday Open Thread
This is your open thread for today. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.
Sorry about the extended "being switched to the new Blogger" transition. Blogger said it would only take "a few minutes." Hah!
Off-topic comment? Interesting link?
Head over to the forums, or click here for open threads.
Head over to the forums, or click here for open threads.
16 comments:
I still don't have power. =/
Anecdote #1:
I was talking to a fellow I work with today (software tester, RE agent on the side). He was singing the praises of his I/O loan. He's only paying the interest and plans to live there for 5 years, then he'll move.
plymster: "What if you can't sell your house for enough to cover the mortgage?".
co-worker: "I'll refinance."
plymster: "What bank is going to refi you if your house isn't worth what your original mortgage costs? What if they do refi you and you can't cover the new monthly mortgage payment?"
co-worker: -blank expression- "Uh... Crazy weather we've been having lately..."
Anecdote #2:
A friend of mine decided she would buy a house with another friend of hers. My friend has no credit card (she doesn't trust herself. Smart girl!), a job as a low-level flight attendant, and barely enough money to cover her $600/mo. rent. Her friend is not in much better shape financially.
Within a week, the two have put in an offer on a $375k home in White Center (a perfect, super-safe neighborhood for two young, single women).
I'm routinely amazed at the lack of thought people put into spending several hundred thousand dollars. Even the "professionals", people who should know better, are tossing their financial lives down the crapper because society sez "you must own a home, or you're a second class citizen".
These aren't necessarily folks that plan on making a killing on their homes, these are just people who mistakenly believe that paying a bank interest is better than paying rent and saving the rest. These are the poor saps who will end up getting wiped out.
These are the poor saps who will end up getting wiped out.
Many foreclosures or Notice of Trustee Sales this year seemed to be for Federal Way condos purchased by single women and owned for up to a year.
My home means security to me, but also so does having a year's worth of mortgage payments in the bank.
HoustingTracker is showing that inventory has been dropping like a rock:
HousingTracker.net
We're back to July/August #s now. How far will it go?
It's also showing that asking prices are up 1.2% MOM and up 10% YOY.
Frankly, I wasn't expecting these kind of #s at this point. I thought for sure things would be much slower...but the market seems to be very healthy right now.
I don't know, Meshugy...must be an xmas miracle!
The term "seasonal trend" just bounces right off of you, doesn't it?
Meshugy,
A) I see that you have cherry-picked the OLD HousingTracker site (which encompasses a much smaller area). The new HT shows asking prices holding steady. However, in general, I don't put much stock in the HT price data (old or new), since asking price != selling price.
B) I don't know how many times it hast to be said, but inventory always drops in the last months of the year. Even in markets that are tanking. The fact that inventory is declining month to month tells us nothing.
C) You're pushing the limits of what I consider to be "intentional antagonism." Consider yourself on notice.
Shugman,
I have seen you post YOY figures before (when it supported your argument) so I know you can do it! We are all pulling for you!
Remember:
YOY NO MOM,
YOY NO MOM,
YOY NO MOM.
I know it is hard to remember, so here is a mnemonic for you: 'like the famous cellist'
Hi Tim...no antagonism inteded. Just posting some observations. I don't take too much stock in the HT site either, but it's still interesting to watch. One of the few place to get week to week data.
Hi Wreck...
Remember:
YOY NO MOM,
I did mention the 10% YOY appreciation...doesn't that count?
So you say that you don't put much stock in the HT prices, then in the very next post you refer to "10% YOY appreciation" based on HT median price data.
And that's not intentional antagonism.
And that's not intentional antagonism.
No...I was just quoting a figure. People do that all the time on this site..often from much less reliable sources then HT. Why are they not "on notice"?
If you're looking for intentional antagonism, just look at the posts from Wreck and Bubbles above:
Clearly a double standard when it comes to identifying "antagonism." Too bad Tim, I thought you were better then that. But I guess you just want a blog were everyone agrees 100% with you. Pretty boring if you ask me...
I am so not buying the "I'm an innocent little dove" routine. It's not "quoting a figure" that I take issue with and you know it. It's the snide tone of your posts.
I have made it abundantly clear time and again that I welcome differing viewpoints. What I do not welcome is trash-talk and trolling. Which, by the way, that last bit of your most recent comment definitely qualifies as.
I've deleted far more comments by people over-reacting to your snide remarks than comments of people I disagree with (including you). So don't even bother trying to pin the "double standard" label on me. It's a demonstrably bogus claim.
Incidentally, I don't have to justify my standard to you. You know full well what you're doing, and that's the last that I have to say on the matter.
HoustingTracker is showing that inventory has been dropping like a rock - meshugy
Shug, I know for a fact you're not (that) stupid. So why write that statment as if it means something? You're fully aware of historical seasonal inventory changes.
Why not point out that current inventory is higher than it was in July? Something which has never happened in the current MLS records.
----------------------------------
Percent that listings dropped for SFH in King County for the previous 6 years from July to December:
2000 -24.7%
2001 -22.4%
2002 -19.3%
2003 -33.5%
2004 -36.9%
2005 -22.4%
----------------------------------
But thanks for the disinformation anyway.
I think this is the only important housing indicator (from the housing bubble blog):
“The downturn in Arizona’s real estate market is translating into business for Catholic gift stores around the Valley, where shoppers are asking for the St. Joseph Home Selling Kit.”
“‘People come in very sheepishly and ask if we have the statue. They just want to get it and slink out again,’ said Mary Gibson, manager of St. Thomas the Apostle gift shop in Phoenix.”
“Gibson has seen sales of the kit, which retails for $6.95, rise dramatically since the first of the year. ‘During the real estate boom cycle of the past couple of years, we didn’t see any movement at all on the saint (statues). When the slump started and people realized that it was going to be around for a while, they started coming in,’ she said.”
“‘Back when the market was hot and you were practically interviewing people to see if you wanted to sell them your house, it was a different story,’ Gibson said. ‘St. Joseph is their last desperate attempt to get the house sold.’”
“Gibson said her shop is ordering more of the kits to keep up with the new demand.”
BTW, thank you to Tim and everyone else for contributing to this blog. I stumbled upon it while looking at real estate sites in Seattle. (I'm likely moving up there for school next fall from LA.) If I can add anything to the site, it is that of the outsider. I think one of the reasons there hasn't been a big hit in Seattle yet is that information on the bubble in the mainstream media is scarce. I was looking to buy something in Seattle, and, coming from LA, the place looks like a bargain. Even here, where prices are astronomical (houses in the hood for 600), there is very little in the LA Times about any bubble, only information that median prices are holding steady. I suspect that the bubble bursting and stories about it will happen simultaneously.
Ding! It's 9:30pm and I've officially been without power now for a week. =(
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