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Saturday, March 06, 1982

03.06.2007 - Tuesday Open Thread

This is your open thread for Tuesday, March 6, 2007. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here.

Be sure to also check out the forums, and get your word in the user-driven discussions there!

18 comments:

Terry said...

I’ve read many times that economic bubbles are difficult to define without the benefit of hindsight. I’ve also read that the precise event / catalyst that stimulates the deflation of a bubble is impossible to predict. Despite these two factoids, I believe that with the implosion of the sub-prime lending market we are finally witnessing the beginning of the “real” deflation of the national housing bubble.

The above is my opinion and worth what you paid for it.

biliruben said...

Any sign of February MLS numbers?

The Tim said...

Not yet... When they're posted, they will most likely appear at this link.

Terry said...

Unbelievable. How can this not have national consequences?

A recent story published in Memphis Business Journal found that there was one foreclosure for every 1.06 homes sold in 2006 in the Memphis MSA. Specifically, there were 19,738 homes sold in 2006, and there were 18,155 residential foreclosures last year.

Memphis foreclosures

Matthew said...

Tim,

That link is not working for me.

The Tim said...

I know. That's exactly my point. The NWMLS stats have not yet been posted. When they are posted, the link will (should) work.

Chris said...

While you are waiting for the MLS numbers. Check out this article about the coming "hard landing". It's a dusey.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/181593

Matthew said...

Gotcha!

darth_s said...

Ever wonder why some stupid people pay so much over asking price? Well, the answer is quite clear in this article from Wall Street Journal:

http://www.realestatejournal.com/buysell/markettrends/20070306-lahart.html

WTF said...

Jon Goodman, a Boulder, Colo., real-estate lawyer with Frascona, Joiner, Goodman & Greenstein, says he has seen dozens of cases where buyers tried to buy a house for more than it was worth in return for a kickback from the seller. The buyer might pay $500,000 for a house that is really worth $450,000 and get $50,000 back from the seller. The kickback gets used as a kitty to make mortgage payments while the buyer waits for someone to buy the house for more than he paid. Works great in a rising market; horribly in a falling one.

Darth's Link from above (I think)

Depending on the extent of this practice, it lends less and less credibility to comps.

Nathan said...

The bottom of my WaMu ATM receipt says, "Feel Good About The Future. Save The Dollar. WAMU Savings WAMU CDS WAMU IRAS Ask Us Today."

Save the Dollar? Think that's their way of telling us something?

rent for now said...

i just stumbled onto this web page --- It's a Great Time to Buy --- oh my goodness....this stuff is going up on the wall of shame....

The Tim said...

Okay I'm practically going to explode if I don't share this...

Here's a sneak preview of a project I've been working on that I plan to "go live" on within a week or two. It should be a nice counter-point to lame sites like the one linked above.

Shh! It's a "secret" for now.

Lake Hills Renter said...

That's a fantastic website, Tim! Kudos!

(but you have a typo on the "action" page - last word: "meddeling")

Eleua said...

If anyone is familiar with the greatest animated program series in world history, you will love this clip.

Keep in mind, this is from the late 50s/early 60s.

RE agents have been selling the same lies forever. It never changes. It was so bad, it was satarized 50 years ago.

Some things never change.

Slinky said...

Tim that website is just gorgeous.

Mikhail said...

Tim,

I like your new site. However, I think the "priced out forever" mantra you cite won't phase most believers since they don't actually believe what you think they do.

Most of my friends, and colleagues, who think the real-estate escalator will continue forever, think that increasing prices will just keep pushing new time buyers further and further out in the suburbs, or even out of entire states.

The mantra thus becomes, "buy now in [insert metropolitan area] or the only homes you will be able to afford will be a 3 hour commuting distance away.

This belief is still flawed (i.e. what employers would want to remain in a super expensive area where they can't rectruit staff?), but it is a little more nuanced than simply "buy now or be priced out".

The Tim said...

LHR & Slinky, Thanks!

Mikhail, That's a good point. I think I'll add some information to the FAQ to cover this. I appreciate the insight.