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Monday, March 08, 1982

03.08.2007 - Thursday Open Thread

This is your open thread for Thursday, March 8, 2007. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here.

Be sure to also check out the forums, and get your word in the user-driven discussions there!

26 comments:

Grivetti said...

2200 Westlake, once gigantic column of garbage

on another note...

Good thing Nickels has his priorites straight, yeppers one of the city's biggest woes? Global Warming

Man, these must be the Halcyon Days, like shark attacks prior to 9-11. Garbage chutes and global warming... soak it up while it lasts, the recession of '07, foreclosure, and the REIC implosion will bring Sea-town's problems into an ultra-neon day-glo urgency that'll have us pining for these newsdays.

biliruben said...

"Captain, whoever he is, he sure talks gloomy."

MisterBubble said...

Lizzie Rhodes' motto: if the real median price increase isn't enough for your sponsors, invent some more!

From the newsvertisement:

"a new analysis by Windermere Real Estate shows the true median price of a stand-alone house is understated because the Northwest Multiple Listing Service (MLS) lumps town homes in with single-family houses.

The median price of a stand-alone house in Seattle last month was $460,000 — roughly $20,000 higher than the number released Wednesday by the MLS in its February housing-market activity report."


Soooo...we can't be bothered to mention that YOY sales are down by nearly 8%, but we have time to pen an entire article on the observation that townhomes are cheaper than SFH? Brilliant!

Next up: a hard-hitting, ground-breaking expose on the dirty truth behind condominium sales, and Seattle's stagnant median sales price ("Are condos ruining your property value?")

MisterBubble said...

Speaking of YOY closed sales...Tim, is it possible to make a plot of pending sales for month N, superimposed with closed sales for month N+1?

All of this discussion of the pending sales number has missed the point that closed sales for February are actually down by nearly 10% for condos, and nearly 8% overall. If I were one of those crazy people who was pre-disposed to predicting a crash in the housing market, I might take special note of this fact.

Alan said...

That $460k is more in line with what I see in SFH. Although all they are arguing is that SFH's are less affordable than everyone previously thought.

I wonder what the 'real' SFH price history has been.

Maybe next month they will mention the average price of homes that are priced above $460k.

"All of the properties priced below last month's median price are bringing down the median price for everyone else. We only thought it fair to not include them in our figures."

EconE said...

speaking of closed sales...

how many people in the stats actually were just closing on a condo that they had "pre-ordered" in 04-06?

If that segment is included...it may look like inventory is still moving for a while...however...it would be interesting to see just how many people are closing on stuff that they had actually "purchased" years ago.

Terry said...

The subprime lending industry is getting hammered, and hedge funds and investment banks are feeling the pain

The Mortgage Mess Spreads

Terry said...

Check this out! A blog listing the total number and vlaue of Countrywide Financial Corps foreclosures. Assuming the info is accurate, it should be interesting to track this.

CFC Foreclosures

Tai said...

new century just went down.

Tai said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Tai said...

REO is not the best source for foreclosure estimates.

Terry said...

tai

I don't understand your comment about REO not being a good source for foreclosure estimates. Please explain.

Your right. New Century is going down in flames.

New Century

Is it just me, or is it starting to feel like the whole housing market / mortgage industry is really starting to fall apart.

FinanceGuru said...

I strongly encourage those of you that want some skin in the game to short the Seattle Futures Index...that way you can profit from the decline and not just say you are right (the money always makes your predictions more satisfying).

As for myself, you all know where I stand and do have skin in the game. My estimate is that prices will moderate, yet wont significantly decline if they do (or decline below my price point).

Wanderer said...

Thanks F-guru! However, all of the MBAs in the world got together yesterday and asked me to let you know that we don't want you to represent us anymmore. Please at least change your name to Finnancestudent... it is more optimistic.
Assignment #1: Compare the net present value of expected rental payments for your condo to your purchase price. The difference is the value that you place in owning over renting. You will soon be tested to see if other people agree with that valuation. [Extra credit if your discount rate reflects a comparably risky investment... and it better not be treasuries or even your mortgage rate].

Wanderer said...

How could we all be expected to agree on the direction of the housing market when the CEOs of Toll Bros and Horton can't agree. Which one is correct... is the 2007 new home market "rebounding" or will it "suck?" Coming out on the same day with such different outlooks is just embarassing. It will make the annual Multi-gagillionair Homebuilder CEO annual picnic a little more tense, I think.
Articles on CNN and elsewhere.

Tai said...

REO is the last stage of the foreclosure process and majority of foreclosures do not reach REO. Thus REO isn't the best indicator.

witzend said...

D.R. Horton CEO: 2007 will ‘suck’

Executive for nation’s largest homebuilder offers bleak forecast

http://preview.tinyurl.com/33cfmy

Grivetti said...

Hahahaha!

Trump, that financial genius that he is (didn't he declare bankruptcy once?) just announced his daughter's planning on building a luxury condo downtown!! Oh yeah!

Nepotism and condos, I'm sure that's a solid investment

refractedthought said...

By the time Trump finishes that thing, it'll be half office space and half apartments. That is, if it's ever finished.

Terry said...

tai

thanx for the explanation

Evil Jed said...

"finananceguru"! You make a good point. What is the ticker symbol for the Seattle housing futures? Seems like a great way to hedge for current homeowners. I was not aware that Seattle had explicit coverage...

matthew said...

Housing futures are traded on the Chicago Mercantile exchange. Seattle is not one of the cities currently traded. Again, Finance coming with some bad info.

Finance, you are giving us WAZZU alumni a bad name! What are they teaching in the ECON department since I left?????

FinanceGuru said...

matthew - Your right, Seattle isnt traded, yet there are other cities you could short if you wanted...the Seattle market will eventually be added though once this futures market matures.

These are the cities that are traded: Boston, Chicago, Denver, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, New York, San Diego, San Francisco and Washington, as well as a weighted composite index.

biliruben said...

yet there are other cities you could short if you wanted...

Wait a cotton-pickin' minute here, FiGu!

Are you suggesting for one moment that Seattle is not special?!? That ANY city could possibly be interchangable with golden-bricked Seattle?

The Condo Ultimate Booster-club Entrepreneurs and Rat Hunting Association (CUBE-RHA!)is going to tear up your membership card if you aren't careful.

Tai said...

wazzu had good name to begin with? :)

GO HUSKIES!!!

FinanceGuru said...

biliruben - Your right, Seattle is special (sarcasm) and other cities had a larger run up so their fall will be harder than Seattle's. All Im saying is that any decline (theoretically speaking, lol) in the Seattle market will be less than areas that had 200% appreciation compared to our 50% over the past several years.