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Monday, March 22, 1982

03.22.2007 - Thursday Open Thread

This is your open thread for Thursday, March 22, 2007. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here.

Be sure to also check out the forums, and get your word in the user-driven discussions there!

94 comments:

T,V & Mr.B said...

Regarding the past conversations on rents, here is a nifty little quote from the San Diego Union Tribune on what is taking place there. It coincides with what many have said here.

"Apartment complex vacancies in San Diego County rose to their highest level in 12 years, spurred by new construction, condo converters caught with empty units and a growing number of individuals renting condos to upwardly mobile tenants, MarketPointe Realty Advisors reported yesterday.”

T,V & Mr.B said...

And this from CNN money regarding how Alt-A is coming into trouble now. http://finance.yahoo.com/loans/article/102641/Liar-Loans:-Mortgage-Woes-Beyond-Subprime

Finally some MSM on other than sub-primes.

T,V & Mr.B said...

In the afore mentioned article, Guy Cecala, publisher of "Inside Mortgage Finance" said that he beleives as much as 1/4 of Alt.A loans were going to sub-prime borrowers.

How can a lender be MORE stupid than that? Eleau, woudl you care to pontificate on those ramifications? I would love to hear yoru take.

RE Developer said...

So what is everyone's thoughts on the current Seattle foreclosure market? I hear so much about foreclosures in the press and found a site that has free foreclosure listings for Seattle.

They list 132 properties about to go to auction- do you know if this is high for the area?

http://www.propertyshark.com/mason/seattle/Foreclosures/index.html

PD

Jazen said...

Oh yeah?
Well check this out....the drum beat begins.
http://money.cnn.com/2007/03/22/news/companies/bc.kb.results.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007032210

JR said...

One vote against a sub-prime bailout...

http://tinyurl.com/3a6wyg

Loved this line: "Lawmakers should also take the step of requiring lenders to consider a borrower's ability to repay a loan before making one, he said."

You would think that this would be standard operating procedure... Maybe Congress will pass a law saying that I should buy low and sell high.

meshugy said...

King County growth booms

Strong job growth in King County and longer commutes to outlying communities are two reasons experts give for new U.S. Census estimates saying the county is growing faster than it has in years.

"You definitely have an attraction to this area because there's jobs here,"Gonzalez said. "Because we were harder hit and we had such a lengthier downturn of jobs, we've had a lengthier upturn and we've had a stronger recovery."

Continued job growth, even if it slows a bit from recent levels, will make the problem worse, he said. "We continue to add jobs and we're not adding housing fast enough for those workers to have a place to live in the county where they work."

Gonzalez expects King County's job growth to slow down this year, but stay strong. That, and the fact that Seattle home prices continue to be lower than others on the West Coast, will keep prices going up, she predicted.

"Compare it to San Francisco. Compare the prices to San Diego," she said. "I don't think that prices have reached their potential here."

Mikhail said...

Does anyone have any suggestions as to the best resources to use for finding good rentals in the East Side? Should we just ignore craigslist, and the PI/Times classifieds as being the haven for over-priced trash? Is word-of-mouth the only way to find the best-priced places?

Matthew said...

Countrywide's failed mortgages may hit high-
No. 1 home loan lender's exec says number may exceed the worst foreclosure rate of 9.89% in 2000.


http://tinyurl.com/2a49qh

flotown said...

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20070321-9999-1b21rental.html

T,V & Mr. B- the chart shows steady 4% per annum increases since 2002. Even with all the condos into the rental pool, the vacancy rate is less that 5%. The article predicts 4% upticks in rents next year.

We had no growth in rents from 200-2005. With growth ocurring rapidly now we're due for larger than than average (inflation +"x") rent growth in upcoming years and every economist worth his salt is predicting this.

Deejayoh said...

Mikhail -
IMHO, Craiglist is an awesome way to find a rental. It's how I found my place (albeit in Seattle) when I sold my house - and I think the deals can be quite good but nice places are snapped up immediately. The overpriced dumps are listed and relisted. Hmm - sounds kinda like the home sales market...

Deejayoh said...

Nice Learah quote today wrt the subprime market:

“‘It was very clear that the standards had deteriorated,’ said David A. Lereah, chief economist of the National Assn. of Realtors. ‘I’m not a lender though. I kept on saying to myself — I guess they know what they’re doing.’”

Umm, aren't you an "economist", who should be thinking critically about factors that influence home prices? Oh, nope - that's right, you're a paid shill.

Why does MSM keep interviewing this guy!?!?

andymiami said...

Do not worry Seattle, this will never happen...

http://www.miamiherald.com/103/story/48927.html

Lionel said...

I have a pair of theories I want to throw out to you guys: I don't think Meshugy actually exists. No one could possibly be that dim.

Theory 1) Tim has created Meshugy to spice up the blog.

2) Tim suffers from multiple personality disorder and Meshugy is merely presenting pent-up doubts the shadow portion of Tim's psyche holds.

I prefer #2. Meshugy, as many of us are aware, is a shortening of the Yiddish meshugena, meaning "crazy one." It's Tim's psyche's way of letting us in on the joke.

T,V & Mr.B said...

Flotoon,
the point of the article is that vacancies are going up..due to"condo converters caught with empty units..."
over the last few years in San diego, I saw cranes have been going up and putting up tons of condo unites etc... does this look familiar?

The Tim said...

Lionel,

That's funny. I wish I were clever enough to think up something like that.

darth_s said...

According to this Bloomber article:
http://tinyurl.com/2lfqzz

" It's going to be very difficult, if not impossible, to do a no-money-down loan at any credit score…”

According to S_Crow, about 70-75% of Home Buyers in this area has 0 down loan. Personally, I know of 3 of my coworkers did this: 2 with 0 down, 1 with piggy back 80/20. If this statement becomes true, what is the percentage of HBs will be shut down from this market?

meshugy said...

Theory 1) Tim has created Meshugy to spice up the blog.

Actually, I created Tim. He has free rent because he doesn't really exist....

Grivetti said...

The new requirements will force some prospective homebuyers to save more money for a down payment or risk being denied credit.

Whaaa? Outlandish!!! I never...!

Actually require barrowers to have some skin in the game? You mean there's actually going to be financial consequences for your actions in this country?

Crazy, I tell you!

SLTO Troll said...

it's amazing how they are requiring 5%down at this point...

I know of people that had to have sellers pay closing...

unless that 5% can be rolled into the purchase, things will be interesting...

seriously, most first time home buyers were thrown into the market a year early (or even two) when they no longer had to put any downpayment...

asking them to put up any downpayment will price them out for several years...

let's see 60K median income... approx 50K after taxes (big family)...

needs 20K down for 400K home...

he saves 5K a year of his 50K take home...

wont be in the market for 4 years...

anybody able to come up with a better spreadsheet... this would be an interesting thing to look into...

Lionel said...

"Actually, I created Tim. He has free rent because he doesn't really exist...."

Sweet Jesus, this is getting worse than The Matrix.

Now I understand why it's THE Tim, and not merely Tim.

WTF said...

I'm not surprised by all the zero down loans out there. Why put in your own skin when it's so easy not to?

I was looking at places back on '03 with a REALTOR and his advice at the time was to put as little money in as possible - and use the rest for whatever. They were practically giving money away.

Looking back, I should have bought....but then I might have been one of those caught up in the escalator, constantly trying to "move up".

I imagine that I could have easily been blinded by the hype and over-leveraged myself with all the "equity" that was magically growing in my walls.

At the end of the day, I think I'm better off where I'm at now: able to walk to work, saving a high % of my income in both 401K and high yield savings, having money to actually enjoy life, and waiting for the bottom to drop out.

rentalbliss said...

I thaught we were all millionares or make well over $100k a year, this is Seattle you know.

WTF said...

Point being, just because they got a zero-down loan, it doesn't mean they "had to".

It was just easier to use someone else's money, so why not.

Grivetti said...

According to S_Crow, about 70-75% of Home Buyers in this area has 0 down loan.

Wow, is this really true? 70-75% of current home buyers are Deadbeats

Considering the U.S. has a negative savings rate, that basically means all these cash-burners are going to literally be Priced out for Ever

Again, this is one of the reasons I'm waiting to buy. Because once lending standards sure-up, all these deadbeat barrowers with ridiculous escalator/wave-inspection clauses attached to their offers will vanish like a bad dream. Making me, some one with a downpayment, a much more attractive (financially, physically, not so much) buyer.

refractedthought said...

We had no growth in rents from 200-2005. With growth ocurring rapidly now we're due for larger than than average (inflation +"x") rent growth in upcoming years

Even if rents do outpace inflation, they are not going to catch up with current mortgage payments any time in the next ten years. Keep dreaming.

WTF said...

Hey Grivetti and S_Crow,

I'd be curious how many of those borrowers did a zero-down out of necessity vs. how many did it because it was so easy to not put their own "skin in the game."

If someone offered me the choice of putting in 10% vs. getting roughly the same low rate putting in 0% - I'd probably have picked putting in as little as possible.

Just because somebody took the bait, doesn't necessarily mean they didn't have any money to put in.

S_Crow - do you have any insight into this? Did some of the folks you worked with actually have some money but just chose to not use it as down payment?

MisterBubble said...

Hey...didn't anyone else notice the way that the Hebrew Hammer picked the four rosiest paragraphs out of an otherwise dismal PI article?

A quick scan of TFA reveals the following choice quotes:

"new U.S. Census estimates....released today, show that more people moved to King County from elsewhere in the U.S. than left for another county last year -- reversing a trend going back at least to 2000.

King County has grown every year, thanks to people moving from abroad and the net "natural" increase of births minus deaths, according to Census estimates. But from 2000 on, between 4,000 and nearly 20,000 more people a year left for another county than moved here from one. The Census Bureau doesn't say where these people went, but thousands more moved into Pierce, Snohomish and other nearby counties than left in each of the past six years."


Or, how about this:

"All in all, King County's population grew 5 percent from July 1, 2000, to July 1, 2006, putting it 27th among Washington's 39 counties for percentage growth."

And more:

"King County has been the nation's 14th-largest county since 2003, when it slipped from 13th. It was 12th in 2000."

So -- let me get this down. From 2000-2006 (the time of the greatest median home price appreciation in history!), King county has

1) had net emigration.
2) Had only 5% growth (amongst the slowest in WA state!)
3) Dropped from 12th largest county to 14th.

And this is supposed to be evidence that the price increases are based on fundamentals?

Hahhhahahaha.

Hammah, you so crazy!

S Crow said...

Hey folks,

Whooaaaa Nellie!

A clarification is needed. I did NOT say 70-75% of buyers in Seattle have 100% loans. No.

I have stated on this blog that of the purchase closings OUR OFFICE handled in 2005, 71% of them were 100% financed. Huge difference, although still rather startling.

E-sidedave said...

I second wtf. From my own experience, we did an 80/10/10. Not because we had to, but because the money was so cheap (5.5% 30yr fixed 1st, 6% fixed 2nd). We have 3 friends who did the same thing for the same reason. We all have >20% of our purchase price in other investments. The only reason I see to put 20% down is to shield yourself if you have to sell and your home drops in value. If that were to happen to us or our friends, we all have available cash to bring to the table at closing. In the meantime, we are all planning to stay put in our homes indefinitely.

A few years back, maximum leveraging to purchase a home was CW...mortgages were so cheap Realtors, MSM and financial planners (take all advice with a grain of salt, I know) were advocating putting the minimum down and getting a better return on your money elsewhere.

I'm not suggesting that this is what is happening with all or even a majority of 0/5/10% down buyers and I'm not saying it is right or wrong, just that there is often more to a story than the numbers suggest.

Matthew said...

Meshugy, FinanceGuru, and many of the other trolls seem to lack and very basic understanding of supply and demand. Sure people in Seattle may want to purchase a home, but when you tighten up lending standards, inventory is bound to increase.

When insiders tell me that the majority of first time home owners are putting little to no money down, that tells me that the lending was extremely loose. Tighten this up, and add to it an increasing number of foreclosures, and inventory is bound to sky rocket.

Who is going to fuel the market here? First time MS employees making 65k a year? Doubtful. The thing that was fueling this market, along with all the other markets nationwide, was easy money. This is drying up. It's not going to be so easy for the median wage earner to buy a house in Seattle.

Matthew said...

Not saying that Meshugy and Finance are trolls, just that they + the trolls are usually the perma bulls that post on here. Shugy and Finance seem to be pseudo legit.

EconE said...

Seattle's not special...L.A. is remember? HAHAHA.

I sure hope that the condo boom doesn't end up like what I'm seeing here in L.A.

here is a little light reading about one of our downtown condos and the crisis they are facing.

www.1100wilshire.com

Grivetti said...

I have stated on this blog that of the purchase closings OUR OFFICE handled in 2005, 71% of them were 100% financed.

Well, if you're a reasonable sampling of the buying public, this is still an amazing amount.... that means if those people were forced to cough up a >5% downpayment, they would be nix'd from the market.

That's a huge slice from the demand pie.

meshugy said...

Meshugy, FinanceGuru, and many of the other trolls seem to lack and very basic understanding of supply and demand.

We actually understand it very well...growing population plus more jobs = more demand. That's precisely what's happening in Seattle. There's been very little speculation in Seattle....the vast majority sales have been honest buyers, mostly moving here from other regions for jobs.

First time MS employees making 65k a year? Doubtful.

You're right...a friend of mine in his 20s just got hired for 90K a year. And another at Zillow (ironicly) who's making over 6 figures and is 28 years old. I know of many Microsofts couples each making 6 figures for a household income of over 200k a year. A 600k house in Ballard is well within their means.

Richard said...

Huh, with population growth of 87000 between 00-06, and an increase of over 50K housing units during that time, I can definitively say the newcomers are choosing to live alone more than ever before. Or something like that. I guess we'll know if the average household size shows a significant drop from the 2.39 in the 2000 census.

Richard said...

A 600k house in Ballard is well within their means.

But can they stomach the commute? If your time is that valuable, why spend it sitting in traffic?

Grivetti said...

We actually understand it very well...growing population plus more jobs = more demand.

*yawn*

Don't feed the trolls, please.

confused said...

shugnite-

I like the way you went from a friend who was hired for 90k a year at Microsoft to 200k for the couple who is buying a house in ballard. Do a lot of Microsoft employees marry eachother from out of state. Dream on. I guess they never get divorced, sick, disabled, fired or layed off. And wouldn't they want to live on the eastside?

Deejayoh said...

Reality to Meshugy....

ballard is BFE for Microsoft employees. I work at Microsoft. I know hundreds of people here. I know 2 that live in or near Ballard.

And in terms of pay, Microsoft targets 65th percentile of competitive salaries. Most people I know take a 30% pay cut when they come here. Same goes for people I know at Amazon.

As for Zillow - they need to pay a lot, cuz they will likely be out of business in two years!

matthew said...

Meshugy,

Do you have stats to prove that there is low speculation in the Seattle area? Or are you just talking out of your a$$?

greenthum said...

matthew:

Please, stop with the name calling! You sound like you're ten years old. If you disagree with someone by all means say so but this "troll" crap is so beneath Seattle Bubble.

Matthew said...

Greenthum,

I will call trolls out for being trolls. I could care less if to you, I sound like I'm 10 year old.

If you don't like it, skip my comments.

Richard said...

Some of the comments by the mortgage folks over at rain city guide are saying that the majority of the option arms mortgages are investors using them to cash flow recently purchased rental properties. Good to know that's only 15% of the mortgage market...

WTF said...

Speaking of sounding like a ten-year old.

Sample is on his "Look and Listen" page, the first song on the album, "Knowing is Half the Hassle" (the one with red writing).

Warning - material may not be appropriate for sensitive folks

Eagle Eye said...

Walking fido today I found 6 new listings in a 10 block trip. The spring listings are starting to pop up.

Just wait, I expect to see this multiply.

Walking in Kirkland BTW

meshugy said...

Walking fido today I found 6 new listings in a 10 block trip. The spring listings are starting to pop up.

I've also noticed the usual Spring bump in Ballard. However, the difference is there's a complete dirth of detached single family homes. Very few are for sale, and what does get put for sale up is usually gone in a week. There are actually far less detached single family homes now then when we bought in 2005. Most of the new stuff is townhomes now.

meshugy said...

This explains a lot:

Housing Bust Rebels

Job creation also led to significant home price appreciation in some metro areas last year, especially in the Northwest states. Three Oregon metros—Salem, Portland, and Eugene—and two Washington metros—Seattle and Spokane—saw double-digit price growth in the fourth quarter of 2006.

"Our market just seems to keep chugging along," says Terry Miller, a realtor at Seattle-based Coldwell Banker Bain. The median home price in the Seattle area was up 11.3% last quarter, to $372,900. Tech companies like Microsoft (MSFT) and Amazon (AMZN) are headquartered in the Seattle area, and aerospace-manufacturer Boeing (BA) remains one of Seattle's largest employers. In 2006, Seattle began a major redevelopment of its South Lake Union neighborhood to attract more biotech companies to the city. Microsoft cofounder Paul Allen has contributed financially to the effort.
Tough Negotiators

A large and increasing immigrant population in the Seattle area has also helped create demand for housing, Miller says. In addition, the Northwest region's price increases in recent years have not been as significant as in other parts of the U.S. "We had times when we were slower than the rest of the country," Miller says.

Grivetti said...

Meshugy said:

how am I suppose to believe anything from a place called seattlebubble.blogspot.com

so dude, why should we even bother reading anything you post anymore if you have such contempt for this blog?

Alan said...

I saw no new information in the article exerpt that Meshugy posted. Certainly nothing that explains high housing prices.

Matthew said...

Meshugy-

You posted an article whose main source was a realtor.

Again, do you have any proof that there is little speculation in the Seattle area or are you talking out of your A$$?????

MisterBubble said...

"Our market just seems to keep chugging along."

So does Abe Vigoda. Will miracles never cease?

Lionel said...

I can understand Meshugy's posts about how special Seattle is, how great the jobs are, how many people are emigrating there, but... how does it explain how special Portland is, and LA, and Ventura and Santa Barbara, and San Diego, and the Bay Area, and Boise, and Billings, and Scotsdale, and... is it possible they're all equally special?

They've all massively appreciated, just as Seattle has. It's an equity bubble. We're all going to take a hit. There are two houses for sale on the street I live on in LA. One for 4.5 million, one for 5.5 million. Nope, no bubble here.

An equity bubble goes much farther in explaining such a broad-based housing phenomenon than immigration statistics or the alleged strength of a local economy. It's all RE agent BS, it's a shame so many people believe it.

Grivetti said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Grivetti said...

explain how special Portland is, and LA, and Ventura and Santa Barbara, and San Diego, and the Bay Area, and Boise, and Billings, and Scotsdale, and... is it possible they're all equally special?

Believe me, if it weren't for my job I would not be living in extra-special Seattle proper (and I was born right here, in Ballard)...

If you have a job that doesn't require you to be located in Seattle (e.g. artist, doctor, attorney, novelist, etcetera...) I can't for the life of me figure out why you'd bother living in this city. If you like tall trees, crappy weather and rain, move to Port Townsend, Bellingham, maybe Anacortes, much cheaper and its all there.

Those places are more culturally diverse per capita then Seattle could ever hope to be (I've spent considerable time in all locations). That and there's no traffic, the natural beauty's more amazing, and if you actually crave cosmopolitan pleasures, all three locales are a quick ferry/drive away to Victoria/Vancouver.

Albiet those places aren't as ethnically diverse of course, but if people enjoyed ethnic diversity people would be clambering for townhomes in White Center...

I am truly stupified why people stick around here when job-wise they're not tied down here...

E-sidedave said...

Sorry you're so unhappy here grivetti. I hope you are able to find happiness some day.

Grivetti said...

Sorry you're so unhappy here grivetti. I hope you are able to find happiness some day.

No dude, you misunderstand. I love crappy weather and tall trees, also Scuba diving and skiing (which you really can't do many places in this country on the same day)... so here I am...

Due to the fact my job's here, Seattle's as good as its going to get. Unfortunately there's no defense industry in Port Townsend... its a compromise.

MisterBubble said...

"Sorry you're so unhappy here grivetti. I hope you are able to find happiness some day."

Snotty comments from passive-agressive locals make me unhappy.

Matthew said...

But Mr. Bubble, if you speak your mind in Seattle people accuse you of "speaking like a 10 year old"!

synthetik said...

Shug,

Since you're so sure your home will keep going up in value indefinately, how about a little wager??

If by Jan 01, 2008 your home is zillowing for more than it does today, I'll donate $1,000 to The Tim for his efforts. If I'm right and your home is worth less than it zillows for today, you donate $1,000 to The Tim.

What do you say?

MisterBubble said...

Hammah!

meshugy said...

Since you're so sure your home will keep going up in value indefinately, how about a little wager??

All right....now we're talking!

Two problems:

1) I don't know who you are

2) I don't really see why Tim needs $1000...he's already got free rent!

Lionel said...

Wait. Does that mean you and the Tim are NOT the same person?

meshugy said...

Does that mean you and the Tim are NOT the same person?

Shhh....don't tell Synthetic.

MisterBubble said...

I smell chicken. Do you smell chicken?

Mmmm....chicken.

synthetik said...

Why do you need to know who I am?

Tim deserves the money to help keep the blog going. If he were paid in actual dollars for the service he's doing, he might make upwards of $500K or more per year.

What if everyone gave him 1% of the money they saved by either selling at the right time, or not buying?

We can just paypal him the $$$, no need to know who I am. Tim can verify that the transfer took place.

meshugy said...

I'd prefer to give the $ to a charity....I think a homeless shelter would be appropriate, don't you?

meshugy said...

Why do you need to know who I am?

Sorry, I don't make wagers with anonymous people on the internet. Stop hiding like a coward and then we do some business.

meshugy said...

I smell chicken. Do you smell chicken?


And what is your wager?

E-sidedave said...

I'm sorry if I came across "snotty." grivetti said Believe me, if it weren't for my job I would not be living in extra-special Seattle proper (and I was born right here, in Ballard)... and
I am truly stupified why people stick around here when job-wise they're not tied down here...
so I took it to mean he is unhappy here. Life is too short to be unhappy over something that can be changed.

T,V & Mr.B said...

Jeez Shrug, You know Synthetics real name, You have his piture, You know hwere he works...( if you really read this blog) What more do you want to know about him. the only thing we know about you is you are a musician and where you live and how much your house is worth. Take the bet.

The reason Shrug spends so much time on this blog, since he doesn't beleive a word we say, is that he realy is trying to convince us all that there is no bubble and he is desparate as hell to do as I said yesterday and cry out at the top of his lungs kicking and fighting as he goes down. He is doomed, he knows it and is fighting as hard as hell to stop the downfall. He knows I'm right.

T,V & Mr.B said...

BTW, I'm flying down to Florida tomorrw. Anybody want me to buy them a condo?

synthetik said...

I'll take two... but only if I can buy them off Lereah at a discount.

Hammah! Ok then... $1,000 to whatever non-religious charity of your choosing.

meshugy said...

$1,000 to whatever non-religious charity of your choosing.

Sure...but it's no deal until you come out of your shell. Sorry, but it doesn't take a whole lot of guts to make anonymous bets.

MisterBubble said...

"And what is your wager?"

I'd bet that you're a chicken.

Cluck cluck, Hammer.

Lake Hills Renter said...

Mkay, Shug. You're bordering on stalker.

Alan said...

I think a $1000 bet justifies a real life meeting.

synthetik said...

Alan, you are rather Trollish, don't you think?

Lake Hills Renter said...

Alan makes reasoned, well-thought posts and is one of the calmer heads around here. Is anyone who disagrees with you on anything "trollish" now?

Alan said...

Really? You think I'm a troll? Please explain.

synthetik said...

Isn't Alan a realtor? or is that another alan?

I just get the general impression of Trollishness thinking back to some of his responses. Maybe I'm confusing him with another Alan. He seems to consistently disagree with me for simply the sake of disagreement.

Either way, I can't think of a single reason why anyone need to show their real identity - especially when there have been death threats on other blogs.

Out of everyone that posts here I believe that only the two Tim's use their real information. (s-crow & The Tim)

synthetik said...

I think a $1000 bet justifies a real life meeting.

Seriously, please explain how this steaming pile of horse manure of a comment has any merit at all?

Nolaguy said...

Suggestion on the bet: Have The Tim be the escrow on it.

WTF said...

Or just give the dude fake information...oh wait, he's already very familiar with that.

MisterBubble said...

Alan, you sound like a troll, because your comment is ridiculous.

Does a $1000 bet "justify" a real-life meeting? Gee...I don't know. Is money somehow less real if you haven't met the person who's giving it to you? If you lose a bet to a stranger, is it somehow worse than losing money to an acquaintance?

And furthermore...how would these guys complete the bet, if they didn't either 1) meet, or 2) exchange money through a trusted intermediary? Meshugy gains nothing by meeting Synthetik -- he's just trying to weasel out of a challenge by making irrelevant excuses. He's a big, kosher chicken.

We've come to expect this kind of silly reasoning from Meshugy; to defend him, you have to be willing to suspend reason and neutrality. In other words, you have to act like a troll.

Lake Hills Renter said...

I guess I don't understand the need for all the attitude and antagonism from some of the regulars here sometimes. Why is it necessary to call names and throw mud instead of just dissecting the argument? That's no better than the "trolls" you're arguing with. It's become particularly bad around here (blog and forum) lately.

One of the reasons I have so much respect for The Tim is he lets the data and anaylsis do the talking for him, without the need of mud or attitude.

Alan said...

I'm not a realtor and I've only seen one person post under my name -- me.

I think a $1000 bet made anonymously over the internet is worthless. There is simply no way to force the other party to pay up. The parties involved either need to deal with each other directly and personally or alternatively a trusted intermediary. Finding a way to do that with Meshugy does not mean you must discard your online anonymity to the general public (as Meshugy, I believe unwisely, did).

I do not remember any particulars about disagreeing with you, Synthetic. In fact, I find your posts to usually be of very high quality and I agree with you much more than not. You may be observing a bias based on the fact that I am more likely to post a disagreement than I am to post a "me too" comment.

synthetik said...

all the attitude and antagonism from some of the regulars here sometimes.

Being passive aggressive stokes my fragile ego and keeps me from beating my wife!

The Tim certainly has my respect with the amount of restraint he's able to show while maintaining a conversation with the RCG/Seattle PI's of this world. There's no doubt about it.

I'd be the first to admit that I could certainly show more restraint in my responses.

On the flip side, The Tim could probably be a bit more forceful as well.

Take the two national housing blogs, www.housingpanic.com and www.thehousingbubbleblog.com. I read both, however I use both of them a bit differently.

With TheHousingBubbleBlog, I skim over the main posts and peruse the comments throughly. With HP, I enjoy reading the posts more for entertainment value - but both blogs serve a purpose, not only to me but the community as well.

I'm not sure what I'm getting at, but my goal here is to help Tim, the community and have a little fun while I'm doing it.

Not everything needs to be backed up by data and analysis. For me, it's a foregone conclusion (great Band btw!) where the market is headed here. While it's fantastic that The Tim provides this much needed function, it's just not something I need.

If you still need proof there is a housing bubble here in PNW, I'd say you should be the one wearing the straight jacket, NOT Eleua.

synthetik said...

I think a $1000 bet made anonymously over the internet is worthless. There is simply no way to force the other party to pay up.

That is absurd! If I didn't pay up, do you think I'd show my passive aggressive manic depressive ass on this blog ever again?

If I paid, Tim would say "Yep, he paid up."

If I didn't, I'd be banished into obscurity, much like Shug will once he has to give his house back to the bank.

The Tim said...

I certainly don't mind a little bit of "attitude," but I agree with LHR that the name-calling and bickering is becoming a bit out of hand lately. If it keeps up I will probably start deleting the highly antagonistic posts again.

Also, for the record, I don't particularly support placing wagers on the housing mess. To each his own, I suppose.

synthetik said...

I'm not much of a bettin' man either, but i figured it was a good way to get shug to shut up...

Didn't seem to work though...

synthetik said...

Either way, Alan, I apologize for calling you a troll.

Alan said...

Accepted.

Alan said...

and forgotten.