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Wednesday, March 17, 1982

03.17.2007 - Weekend Open Thread

This is your open thread for the weekend of March 17-18, 2007. You may post random links and off-topic discussions here.

Be sure to also check out the forums, and get your word in the user-driven discussions there!

43 comments:

SeattleMoose said...

Still seeing a lot of "high end action" over here in the Leschi/Denny Blaine area as CA ELs snap up prime properties. The CA EL factor is part of the reason that Seattle is 6 months to a year "behind" the CA trend lines.

On 2/10/07 I decided to start tracking 6 "micro" markets...and here is the percent increase in listings since that date:

Bellevue +6%
DesMoines +18%
Federal Way +24%
Kent +13%
Kirkland +10%
Seattle +14%

For the big picture I started tracking 4 counties on 5/7/06. Here is the percent increase in listings since that date:

King - +19%
Pierce + 32%
Snohomish +30%
Whatcom -4%

In about 6 weeks I'll start to have YOY listing numbers....

Looks to me like the "south" is going to fall before the center and east....no surprise. Where would YOU buy if you were a rich CA EL or a cash rich move up buyer?

EconE said...

asking prices are still sky high and going higher. That's fine...let them sit on their properties for a while and let them be the victim of their own egos.

most sellers are listenting to their RE agent...and you know the advice they will get. In fact...I'd be willing to bet that if the customer had been clueless about the whole subprime implosion that they wouldn't hear about it from the RE clerk.

Geon said...

My landlord/developer has 4 properties available in Seatac and has lowered the price on two finished house twice in 2 weeks. They started out at around $620K, now down to $544K since Oct/November. I talked to his superintendent a few months ago and he said the longest they've had to sit on a prop was about 6 weeks, well it's been 14 plus weeks, with a half a dozen other new houses completed in the same area, along with his 4 completed.

Looks like we're safe renting our old house from him for awhile now. I'd like to get out of the old hood, but I'll stay as long as a can or the wife allows.

just_checking said...

The feeding frenzy has begun....

In my not-so-scientific observation
(daily drive) of the renton/south
king county area it appears this
year is heading to be on-track for another "seattle is special"
year. Houses are being snapped up
with a week or so even with
higher asking prices.

As much as i wish for a sane market, looks like the RE agents are going to have the last laugh

Disclosure - I am currently a renter before someone accuses me of a troll/RE plant.

meshugy said...

The feeding frenzy has begun....

I've noticed the same thing in Ballard...casual observation shows lots of sold signs and hardly anything left forsale. Listings only on the market for 1-2 weeks before being snapped up, usually far over asking.

A friend bid on a house in Viewridge...lost out to someone who bid $80K over asking!

I didn't expect this year to be anywhere near as active as the previous few, but we may see some records sales yet again.

Vickie said...

Econe, asking prices are not rising. Housing tracker shows that since the hieght of Oct 2006 asking prices have dropped 2.3-2.8 percent.

Shugy and Just checking, Kinda funny, I see homes falling out of escrow, old homes being relisted at lower prices and place on the market for quite some time.

synthetik said...

Isn't that what causes insanity? The denail of truth or reality?

Shug, help is only a phone call away.

EconE said...

Vickie...I should have mentioned that I was just looking at the downtown condo market. With all the new 500k+ 1 BR's that are coming on the market it has pushed the "median" up a bit when I do my MLS searches. It is also pretty heavy in the 1M+ range in my opinion...and not much is moving in either category.

Anyhow...that's the primary market that I have been following...Seattle condos.

I did check some of the houses that you can get for 1M-1.5M and am pretty surprised. I think that one can actually do better down here in Los Angeles FWIW.

just my 2c.

emcityjill said...

I see nervous nellies. There are price reductions galore! Even in Ballard they're reducing by tens of thousands. (MLS 27020894)

Here's a sad example of a townhouse nobody wants to call home. (MLS 26171163). Reduced 10K every month since the end of January!

Deejayoh said...

I had a townhome in Madison Valley under contract last fall at $530k (while under construction) and it is still on the market today. The price is now at $484k... and dropping. MLS 27018517. I sure am glad I dropped out of that one!

Meshugy, are you long GOOG at $400 too? If so, I have some trees that grow to the sky you might be interested in!

Jazon123 said...

What do you all think of the Bainbridge island?

Jazon123 said...

Shug
Might want to check out this article and get out of the real estate business, being a real estate agent is hard on the automobile, I'm sure someone of your qualifications could find something in the hotel or retail sector, good luck, your pink slip will be coming sometime this year.
http://money.cnn.com/blogs/generationrisk/2007/03/real-estate-can-only-fall-10-to-20.html

Jazon123 said...

Just_checking
Seattle is special how?
Oh, that's right, the explosive job market (the only driver of a strong real estate market). But wait, there isn't a strong job market here. Just the whispering fog and muddled musing of one going insane.

Jazon123 said...

Oh and Just_checking
You can rent a place and still be a real estate agent, I'm sure. Don't quote me on this one, as there hasn't been a study done on that yet.

T,V & Mr.B said...

Again, I was signed in under my wifes accout, so Vickie was T,V and Mr. B.

Econe, I see, Yes the condo market is going up a bit right now, Just as it did in San Deigo right before the collapse.

I also think the 1 million + will scew the median a bit. I appreciate your 2c

Shugy, I gues you and I are looking through different glasses. As I said, I am seeing a lot of disapointed sellers. Glad to see you less threatening.

Eleua said...

If you like living around X-Cals that do nothing other than yammer on about their home prices, and uber-trendy, leftist politics, and a hellish commute to anywhere other than the urban core of Seattle, and driving 30-60 minutes to any substantive retail complex, and overcrowded schools, and pretension so thick you need a shaped charge to get through it...

Bainbridge is a wonderful place.

meshugy said...

Glad to see you less threatening.

Me threating? I'm just a nerdy music geek.

Anyway...

A list of recent sales in Ballard Loyal Heights. First price is asking, second is the sold price.

Only three sold slightly under asking. The rest sold at or above asking. Things seem to be heating up more then expecting...with a lot of overbidding and houses selling in only 1-2 weeks.

6521 27th Ave NW 399,950 399,950
7747 27th Ave NW 549,950 549,950
7353 Jones Ave N 579,000 625,000
7316 Jones Ave NW 535,000 520,000
8323 16th Ave NW 439,950 451,500
6718 21st Ave NW 329,500 325,000
3007 NW 72nd St 599,950 600,000
6717 21st Ave NW 489,950 489,950
3006 NW 66th St 470,000 470,000
8020 27th Ave NW 499,950 499,950
7722 Jones Ave NW 465,000 463,375
6706 22nd Ave NW 625,000 676,000

ZippyDoDa2007 said...

Test

ZippyDoDa2007 said...

It does not appear things are really slowing down that much even in the higher end of the market. I placed a bid 100K over asking for a house in West Bellevue 3 weeks ago. They were asking 950K. I lost out, the house went for a bit less than 1.1M. There where a total of 5 bidders including me.

This occurred before the all the sub-prime news got released in the media. However, I do not think all the sub-prime issues will affect the East side much if at all. I just do not think there are many people in the East side market, especially the higher end, 1M+ market that have really poor credit scores or doing 100% financing deals.

Comments?

Jazen said...

Z-Diddy, trollish words if I ever heard em.

EconE said...

zippidydoo said...

Comments?

why is it that the BH's can back up their info with MLS numbers yet the Housing Cheerleaders continue to provide anecdotal evidence without any reference to the listings. For example...I read lots of comments about this house or that house getting so many multiple offers over asking prices over the weekend yet no-one can provide the MLS numbers to even prove the fact that the supposed house is actually for sale or even exists.

Jazen said...

Because they are trolls or perhaps they are Dr. Lereah and his wife and kids trying to get the hype rolling again.
http://The.Cult.of.David.Lereah.willbedefeated.com/

Eric said...

A small piece of sanity from the PI...

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/money/307890_real17.html

Toward the bottom, it's suggested locking out anyone without 20% down as the only cure for the market.

info said...

why is it that the BH's can back up their info with MLS numbers yet the Housing Cheerleaders continue to provide anecdotal evidence without any reference to the listings.

Look above...I just posted a whole list of houses which sold over asking.

Jazen said...

We must do away with the David Lereah.

Jazen said...

Info,
Please give dates and MLS numbers associated with these sales.
Danke Herr Lereah.

Lake Hills Renter said...

Looks like Jillayne over at RCG is getting some national press:

Housing "nightmare" tarnishes the American dream

info said...

There are no MLS#s anymore...they've already been sold. You have to look them up on the King County Parcel viewer.

ZippyDoDa2007 said...

The house got sold 3 weeks ago, so there is no MLS#. Also, I'm not here to act like a troll and get people riled up. What I am doing is presenting what happened to me.
I very much want the housing market to fall, because it will give me a better chance to find a house in West Bellevue, as I want my child to attend the schools that area. However, in the last 5 years, prices in West Bellevue have probably gone up 50% or more. Even if there was a downturn, it may drop what 10% or 20%? Even if it did drop 20%, it would still be up 30%.

I'm just trying to get an unbiased opionion on what people think the real estate market is going to do. I can see that its next to impossible in this blog. Seems most here are angry people that have gotten priced out of the market, and hoping way to much that the market is going to collapse.

I'm hoping the market is going collapse also, as I have cash waiting the wings to buy. However, it does not appear that a collapse in the Seattle area is in the cards. Even this sub-prime problem is over-hyped, and probably should not be an issue in Seattle

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/realestate/2003621595_homeforum18.html

Jazen said...

Trolls go to the David Lereah Watch blog.

EconE said...

Seems most here are angry people that have gotten priced out of the market, and hoping way to much that the market is going to collapse.

I'll assume this comment was directed at me. Nope...not angry...not priced out of your market either. I live in L.A. and am financially comfortable....even without a job...imagine that!

Am I rooting for a housing collapse?

No...I'm rooting for a full blown economic collapse. Housing is just a part of it.

prices in West Bellevue have probably gone up 50% or more....blah blah blah...Even if it did drop 20%, it would still be up 30%.

hmmm...looks like math isn't your forte. BTW...did you know that "forte" is pronounced "fort"?...but I'll just assume that you didn't know that either.

now on to info.

There are no MLS#s anymore...they've already been sold. You have to look them up on the King County Parcel viewer.

not disputing you...please post a link.

Jazen said...

If it looks like a troll, writes like a troll and smells like a troll, it's probably a troll.
Tomorrow will vanquish the trolls frometh thith websiteth.

info said...

not disputing you...please post a link.

There are no links....once a house has been sold it's no longer on the MLS. You have to look it up on the parcel viewer.

T,V & Mr.B said...

Zippitdydoo
"I'm just trying to get an unbiased opionion on what people think the real estate market is going to do. I can see that its next to impossible in this blog. Seems most here are angry people that have gotten priced out of the market, and hoping way to much that the market is going to collapse."

I'm not angry all, I could by right now after selling my home in San Diego, I simply know, though, that it would be the stupidest thing I could do with my money right now. Am I hoping for a collapse? I wouldn't call it hoping for THE collapse, but since I am 100% certain that it WILL happen, I guess I am hoping for it to happen sooner than later and get it over with.

Allow me to state, that subprimes aren't the problem, even though that is what is on the news right now. Subprimes are not the loans that will bring the housing market down by more than 20%. They are only the tip of the iceberg of what is lurking just around the corner. I don't care if it is downtown, or East side or where the hell it is. The only guys that won't be affected, are those can pay cash for 1Million+ homes.

Alt-A and Prime loans will be in the news in a few months, I assure you. The underlying current is a lot stronger than what the MSM is letting out. Look at the blog ove the last year or two. You will see BH's and contrartians talking about sub-primes way back when. that dike is finally craking and a lot more will as well.

If you also look back on this blog over the last couple of months, you will see these guys predicting an upturn in March, recently termed the dead fish bounce I believe.

The market WILL correct itself to follow the 4% increase in value. It always has, and it always will. Seattle isn't different and neither are the times.

info said...

If you also look back on this blog over the last couple of months, you will see these guys predicting an upturn in March

That's a no brainer since there's always an upturn in March. The Spring and early summer is the big selling season around here.

greenthum said...

zippy:

You won't have to wait too much longer for the housing and job market to take a dive. But if I were you I'd hang on to that stash of cash for a while.

You see when you're out of work, and your unemployment benefits are about to run out, that money's going to come in handy. I doubt if a house will be at the top of your list when you can't pay your bills and the fridge is empty.

Jazen said...

Info/zipster.
Let's see what Tues. brings with the Feb housing starts. Let me guess, if'n it comes in low, it's due to the unseasonably cold weather?

SLTO Troll said...

true the high end market is still alive in the east side and the subprime implosion won't affect them right away, but as the subprime market dries up, nobody will be buying from those trying to move up and the lack of equity to put down on a 1M house will affect them eventually...

Even if 1M is affordable and financed conventionally, it would still be a sore on your side when the same house goes for sale for 800K next year... and just hope you never have to move...

btw, anybody have insight on how Vista is doing?

I'm still using Media Center 2005 and don't really see myself upgrading...

just_checking said...


Jazon123 said...
Oh and Just_checking
You can rent a place and still be a real estate agent, I'm sure. Don't quote me on this one, as there hasn't been a study done on that yet.

If you are accusing me of being a
RE agent then you are way off the
mark as i consider them equal
or even below used car sales people.

I am just posting what i see on my drive. You can take it or leave it. The "seattle is special" was
sarcasm by the way.

matthew said...

I love the people that post messages on this board trying to defend their position to purchase to everyone on this forum. It actually seems like they are defending the decision to themselves.

With the incoming credit crunch, its amazing at this point in the game that people still can't see the forest for the trees.

We have increasing inventory, stagnant prices, tightening lending standards, and a potential sub-prime nightmare but yet people are trying to convince this crowd that their decision to buy was a good one.

Why is it I have a feeling 6 months from now we won't be hearing from them?

matthew said...

Another argument I love (and you see all the time) is that "This area is not as bad off as area X".

Its like treating someone with a near fatal gun shot wound but saying that they aren't in any serious trouble because it didn't hit a main artery.

Seriously people, even the MSM is starting to get it. The rest of you are like people asking to be let aboard the Titanic once it has already hit the iceberg.

Zippy, thanks for sharing a link with a Q&A with Lizzie Rhodes. That's like sending me a Q&A about nuclear physics with Mr. Rogers. If that's all you have to back up your decision to buy, you are truly just another FB.

Another thing, all the subprime stats I have seen listed are for either A. Seattle B. Bellevue C. Everett or a combo of all three. How about some stats for : Renton, Kent, Federal Way, etc. I believe that those area will be the ones hit hardest by subprime lending.

I guess you have to connect the dots for everyone.

Jazen said...

Just_checking
I guess it must be hard to look yourself in the mirror everyday then. But, the bright side is, when the housing crash crunches, you can always get into selling used cars.
good luck.
I agree with you, you real estate agents are scum and get paid way too much to do something as simple as unlock a house and walk a person around it.

Lake Hills Renter said...

Worst reading comprehension skills ever.