01.29.2007 - Monday Open Thread
This is your open thread for Monday, January 29, 2007. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.
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49 comments:
Hey Tim,
Was going to comment on the following Rhodester artcile, but if you're going to post on it later, I can hold off...
Strong Seattle Apt. Market signals higher rents
What I take away from it is that outside investors are starting to pile into our region to build appt buildings. With a vacancy rate of 2% to 3% it is a very tight market with avg rents of $980 (5.4%) it is showing that the Seattle RE market still has legs.
This year an estimated 30,600 jobs are projected for 2007 (avg family size in Seattle = 2.8) so there should be an increase of 60,000 to 80,000 people (depending on family size) in the greater Seattle area. Along with having a low vacancy rate will drive rents even higher (than they would have holding all things constant).
The good news is that Bellevue & Seattle are building a bunch of new office buildings, so at least they have a place to work. Overall this can only be a bullish sign for the RE market. It will take several years before many new appt buildings are built to satisfy the demand for housing.
I used to think that would happen and then have rents double over the next 5-7 years. I now, however, think there is plenty of rental supply for our rental market once all the "investors" can't sell for their price. After allthey have been quoted as saying, "I am not going to give it away. I will just rent it until the market comes back." I think rents will go up in the short term but then come back down, not by much but don't feel they will sky rocket due to a shortage.
real estate on redmond is not exactly cooling folks ...in a new construction in redmond for lot sizes in 4000's and sqfts 2000's, there are multiple offers on EVERY LOT with escalation clauses. I think this yr is off to a strong start. The dip if any is gone.
I think the key to both the rental and sales market is the number of vacant homes that go on the market this spring. If the buyers don't come out in the numbers necessary to absorb all the inventory, look out below.
Right now, I still see people madly doing crappy cosmetic fixes all around. Madly preparing to flip the wreck in the spring.
I also saw a lot of houses taken off the market in November-January. I think we are going to see a flood of houses on the market, overwhelming the few morons still willing and able to buy after the lender tightening squeezes the marginal folks out of the market.
It will take a while before double-mortgages, rents that don't cover the nut, vacant houses, lack of appreciation and ultimately despair take hold. Prices may not drop much in 2007, but they will drop. And once that happens, and people start putting two and two together and watch other markets like San Diego go into freefall, things will start getting really, really interesting.
Unfortunately the significant drops will be slow and steady. 2008 will be big year for prices, where 2007 will be a big year for inventories.
its interesting that the folks placing offers on these homes in the east side (new construction) and relatively new homes are mostly from california. they have huge amounts of cash, and their escalation clauses are just HUGE. folks, market is not cooling, we have an influx of folks for CA that will prop up prices even further.
It means we continue to rent. Thats what it means. I have very little hope of pricing even staying flat in some areas.
Based on my experience in San Diego, the same kind of idiotic and irrational speculation is now happening here in Seattle; even while it's obvious we're headed in the same direction as other bubble markets.
I agree with Bill Ruben, it's completely obvious that as the cold/wet weather goes away we're going to see an absolute FLOOD of houses/condos enter the market and inventory numbers will go through the roof.
As more inventory becomes available, so will the supply of rentable units. As these properties languish on the market, "owners" will be forced to rent them out, driving the rents even lower.
Still, as Real Estate clerks say, "it's always a great time to buy!"
Sash - Anyone who has five minutes to spend on Redfin can call BS on your statements.
There are quite literally hundreds of houses within 5 miles of Redmond that have been on the market for months.
Hundreds. For months.
I recommend coming up with less easily verifiable nonsense next time.
Stick to things that only those with MLS access can verify, like days on the market. That way it's harder to call bulldanky.
Sash,
Which Redmond development are you referring to? Can you provide some numbers as to which development is so hot with multiple offers?
I am inclined to be a bit skeptical, as the following home is 45+ days on the market and seems to trend with the general Redmond price range as it currently stands:
http://preview.tinyurl.com/35zx9d
I am downright giddy thinking about what will be on the rental market in about 12-18 months.
Financegoo, your one bedroom unit is about to get some serious company. Renting a real nice place for pennies on the dollar helps keep the Mrs. placated until this mess fully unravels itself around 2010.
Bili - Redfin gives days on the market, IIRC.
Yeah, but it's not "real" days on the market.
The latest trick is for Realtors to only list for 90 days, so they can constantly "freshen up" their listings.
So a listing which has gone through a few of those, may have been on the market for 250 days, but Redfin lists it as just a couple months.
I've spent the weekend looking at apartment listings, so I think I have some practical insight into the nature of the rental market.
Gooroo got one (and only one) thing right: investors are piling into the region. They aren't building apartments, however -- they're buying properties that used to be affordable rentals, "improving" them, and trying to rent them back onto the open market for multiples of their original rent -- part of a genius plan to get renters to pay the bulk of a bloated mortgage (gee, why didn't I think of that?)
One needs only look at craigslist to see that the rental market is flooded with overpriced flips and "luxury townhomes." If you look at the shared housing listings, you'll see a large number of people trying to rent rooms in houses, townhomes and condos for premium rents.
Meanwhile, the number of actual apartment listings is plummeting, and the few that remain are being pumped by greedy landlords, who see which way the wind is blowing. Nevertheless, don't kid yourself into believing that this situation is sustainable: how many $750 bedroom rentals can this market support before morons start falling behind on their ARM payments?
Deepcgi, You and I are in the EXACT same scenario. and have the exact same feeling towards buying. "Ain't gonna do it. Would be prudent at this juncture." Sash's and Gurus nonsensical dribble of BS isn't gonna put me in the mindset to pull the trigger either. Sash, I don't know what you been smoking or how long or short you been looking, but stuff is staying on the market for a long time. Did anybody take a drive yesterday? How many open house signs did you see? hundreds? at least a couple of hundred in a small area east and north end of Lake Washington. I have never seen that many since I have been here. I have never seen that many period, at any time in my life. and guess what, I stopped in to look at a couple fo them. Empty, of furniture and people. I saw one house that actually ahd an intersted person who would probably make an offer. It was an old, old house, a bit cramped, but below 500K so not a bad deal. other than that, agents were trying to talk me up, hard core. Lots and lots of competition out there and everybody vieing for the few that wandered trhough.
Folks I too am same situation as deepcgi. I havent bought, am looking for a decent home. This past weekend, i saw litrerally a set of 3 new homes get multiple offers, I personally walked away.
Most homes that have been on market for long are either lousy, or over priced - NO DOUBT there.
Sellers are having a hard time shaking off the fact that they can sell any damn thing and people will rush to buy! While the properties that are new, or well maintained in good areas are still selling albeit at a reduced rate than before.
The sad thing here is this - even with decent job, and savings we folks are priced out. I mean we cld buy up some really OLD home that looks depressing with shabby remodels just because its say a stone throw away from a major employer! But thats not what I want. I expect decent value for my money. I am not getting it here!
Sash. Just keep with what you are doing. More and more people are thinking that way. It IS cooling and WILL cool more. This whole shebang WILL implode. there is absolutely NO WAY it can sustain itself, Have faith. Watch the numbers and relish that affordability IS on the way
Hello,
I was thinking of purchasing a home in the near future, but all these comments are really discouraging...
Would it really be a horrid investment to purchase a 300K New townhouse in shoreline?
Any help would be appreciated.
Katek,
Here's my advice: Don't purchase a home as an "investment." Purchase a home as a place to live, but only if the payments on a traditional fixed-rate mortgage are less than 30% of your gross income and you can afford to put down 20% ($60,000 in your case). Be prepared to stay in the home you purchase for 5-10 years if the price does in fact go down.
If on the other hand, you're using 100% financing, stretching to make the payments, or planning to sell and "trade up" in a few years, you should probably not be buying a home right now.
housingtracker.net out today, inventory up 1.5% from last week... Still rising!!!!!!!!!
Shuggy where you at?
katek - You need to look at many different sources for opinions and facts. The reason this blog has so many discouraging comments is due to the title "SEATTLE BUBBLE", so naturally it will have pessimistic views (due to all those that wish they would have bought back in '03, 04' or 05' with huge appreciation already, many wont admit it yet many are secretly bitter they missed out, and rightly so). The market is slowing, yet the Seattle market did not have as dramatic price appreciation as other market bubbles that busted. If we do have a downturn it will most likely be smaller than the other more significantly hot hot markets.
To consider buying a house you need to make sure to put down some cash as a down payment (the more the better as it also allows you to get better interest rates and a lower monthly payment). Also need to be in the market for the long run, as there has never been a 5 year period in Seattle where prices have declined or stayed stagnate. If you do get an IO Loan, then make sure to get it for a long enough period at least 7 years...as I did not even feel comfortable getting a 5 year IO loan (I ended up with a 10 year IO loan, and yes I am saving the difference for all you nay sayers).
Overall if it is not financially stretching you beyond your means and realistically take account for expenses you should be fine, however if you are speculating then it would be wise to wait until you stash away more money first.
Katek,
Not if you are talking about the new townhouses just down the hill from me. The ones on 15th just north of Perkins?
Have you toured them? I have. I also watched them being built. The construction was very dubious to say the least.
Also, all the end units are already purchased.
A general comment about condos and townhouses: during the last downturn in Seattle in the early 90s, new condos and townhouses were the things that retained their value the least, according to a local economist friend.
I think Tim's comments hold. If you plan on living on a busy street, far from the city, you may not lose too much if you buy and hold for 7+ years. If you are using this as a "step up the ladder", however and plan on moving to a better place in the next few years, I'd just rent.
For the, at minimum, $1500/mo you'd be paying on that mortgage, you can find a sweet, big apartment in a better location, or even a small house to rent.
"many wont admit it yet many are secretly bitter they missed out, and rightly so"
Sigh. Guru, if you're going to be an idiot, please be an idiot who uses correct punctuation and spelling.
Your posts make me bitter, but only about the sad, sad state of American education.
Mr. Bubble - sorry I accidentally put a comma where I should have started a new sentence and was not perfectly worded, yet got my point across. There are many other people that misspell words or make mistakes...its a blog, not intended for perfect print article writing, as an occasional error never killed anyone your mighty highness. Never seen you correct those you agree with before, interesting, hua.
Im sure your posting was well worth the space you took up correcting a punctuation error, thanks. (Im not admitting my space is for this rant either).
I think everyone (almost everyone) can agree on here that if they had bought several years ago and had a couple hundred thousand in home appreciation they would not mind it…so to say that owning is not worth it is hypocritical (it’s a matter of perspective on when and why you bought or did not buy). If you did own, it would be more comfortable now and could always sell and rent once the market tops out…yet most of the people that rant about the market declining are renters and most that are optimistic are owners. Coincidence, I think not! As for myself, Im not overly optimistic, yet realistic. I do realize that the market could decline and if it does its not likely to be as massive correction as other hyper-inflated markets.
At times I overly dramatize my points (like many others) to stimulate conversation and ideas. Personally I think the market will be nearly flat for the next several years while we find a good equilibrium point. 20% per year is too much to sustain, yet believe as long as we maintain 2-7% per year and banks gradually tighten credit policies things can work out. Will there be some pain, of course, will the sky fall like chicken little says and the world end (massive crash), probably not. If the housing market crashes it would be horrible for the local economy and for WA state, thus causing Olympia to raise taxes more dramatically than they have been. Moderation in most things is healthy, even in correcting market trends.
Finance,
As if you are the epitome of a unbiased third party? Dude you bought a condo on an interest only loan at the height of the condo run-up!
HELLO??? MCFLY?!
But hey, that helps you impress the ladies right?
Moderation in most things is healthy
Umm, have you been paying attention to what happened here 1998-present? It sho'nuf wasn't moderation 'guru. The piper shall be paid.
Biliruben
Yes, the townhomes on 15th N of Perkins are the ones I am looking at. The exterior is pretty lame, but I was impressed by the interior. Do you think they are that bad?
Count me as a clear-headed owner who looks at the evidence objectively, and pleas with anyone I care about to not to buy at this current very high-risk point in time.
If the transaction costs (both monetary and time) were minimal, I would be renting right now.
Anyone who claims they are a finance guru and doesn't understand and respect the basic credit and risk imbalance that so obviously is in our current market is hard to take even slightly seriously.
Finance,
I bought at 350K and sold at 930K. Not bitter at all. I simply know better than to buy right now. I truly appreciate the poor guy who bought my house and the institution that lent him the money to do so. To say that those who think the market is overinflated, which it is,and that lenders are idiots lending to whom they are lending and the amounts they are lending, are bitter only proves the idiocy of which you base your arguments on. Katek, you shouldn't get bummedright now, just like the smart ones on here say, if you want to live ther for a while and don't risk overextending yourself with a loan shoved down your throat, you will be fine. But what ever you do, don't listen to Guru.
Katek,
I don't think they are "bad." I do think they aren't worth 305K (or 299K for the ones nearer the street, right?).
You are right, they did a decent job of them inside, and they would probably be a decent place to live.
I am biased a bit, because I live a couple streets up, have a nice big yard on a quiet street and a house about the same sq/ft as those townhouses, and paid signficantly less. I know the market has changed in the last 3 years, but I don't know why it has changed so significantly
It doesn't make sense that those townhouses, under high-tension powerlines, in a lot that until very recently was thought to be only useful for storing construction equipment, on a very busy street, should be worth what they are asking.
You could buy, and you would probably be happy there. I just don't think you will get your money out of them if you have to sell in next 5 years.
If I were you at this point in history, I would work up exactly how much it would cost you, including:
Principal
Interest,
Taxes,
Insurance,
HOA,
Any money you would be recieving if you'd invested your down-payment.
Then look very closely at the rental market and see what you could get there. I think you will be pleasantly surprised what you find, in terms of quality, location and price.
Personally I think the odds are that housing prices are going to decline over the next few years, but even if you think it's a 50/50 proposition whether values go up or down, it should be clear that this isn't a risk-free investment.
Do your due diligence and make the best decision you can, taking all opinions about the future of the housing market into consideration.
In a year we will have a much clearer vision of where the market is heading. If you can wait that long, I think you would be able to make a much more informed decision, and I don't think you will be paying more for that townhouse. But I could be wrong. I don't think so, but I could be.
I just gave this same advice to my sister, so I have the spiel on the top of my brain. ;)
Katek-
Townhomes and condos are the last to appreciate and the first to fall. Throw in water/envelope damage litigation potential and HOA dues depending. No way would I buy a townhouse now.
Another thing, I forgot who made the claim about multiple offers on new construction, the reason new construction is getting multiple offers and will is because they have either slashed prices or have huge incentives or both. meanwhile, the resale market hasn't moved. Builders have to move product, period. They can't wait it out, not for long. In other areas of the market, builders price their house TO resales. Which would you buy? Everyone bags on the craftsmanship of new construction but it is superios to a 1940's 3/2 POS.
If you are planning on staying for 7-10 years and have 20% down I think it is a great time. Oh, and no more than 3x your income.
Old adage: Anytime you pay 1/2 as much to rent the same place as it would to own you never buy. There are some great places to rent right now, very cheap.
Agree with other posters here -
Living here because this is where my job is - $200k liquid, and thinking that in any normal circumstance I'd be thinking about buying my first home. Right here, right now - not a chance.
It's early in the cycle yet, but even in 2007, it's certainly dicey that appreciation on a used house would beat ~4% on cash (that's after taxes) while waiting for sanity to return to the marketplace.
"sorry I accidentally put a comma where I should have started a new sentence and was not perfectly worded"
Uhm, no. No period needed (in the original sentence), just a few extra commas (and don't forget the missing apostrophe!)
"There are many other people that misspell words or make mistakes...its a blog, not intended for perfect print article writing, as an occasional error never killed anyone your mighty highness."
Yes, people make mistakes; normally, I read past them. Then again, most people don't write atrociously, while simultaneously insinuating that everyone who posts here is doing so out of jealousy and/or ignorance.
(Aside from that, it's hard to resist making fun of someone who references his MBA in every third post, but who cannot master the intricacies of apostrophe usage. Call me petty.)
"Never seen you correct those you agree with before, interesting, hua."
Agree with you?? Dude...seriously: work on your reading comprehension skills.
Finance guy reminds me of the dude on that old FedEx commercial.
The lady is like, "Hey you will be making copies, can you handle that?"
MBA Guy "But I have a MBA!"
Lady "Oh, then I'll have to show you how to do it!"
Finance,
I think people here like the ongoing debate, and that is simply the purpose of this blog. What does happen though, is when someone like you who spews crap in a pedantic fasion such as you do, and can't back it up with any facts, or even a logical conclusion, you get you sh-- handed basck to you on a platter. Ask Shug about that.
I have posted many facts in previous postings, such as the articles about the rental rates rising significantly. We are currently the 15th most expensive rental market in the nation, only 2-3% vacancy rates on residential housing, ~8% vacancy rates on commercial (usually closer to 15%), along with many investors planning on building more apartments in the Seattle region (documented as we can see the buildings go up). There was also the mention of the MEDIAN price of homes jumping 10% in the past week (I know this is not totally accurate, yet it went up, right?) In 2007 there is an estimated 30,600 jobs to be created in the Seattle area (avg family 2.8 people in Seattle) translates into the need for more housing. Not all those people want to rent and the vacancy rate is 3% (low supply and increasing demand). Thus the increased demand for housing…even if they rent condos. If anyone has driven around Bellevue they see about a dozen cranes building commercial development, this has a compounding impact job creation effect on the economy. Over the past year the stocks of MSFT, BA, SBUX, Nordstrom, Costco, Jones Soda, Safeco and other NW companies have done extremely well (and the overall stock market did fantastic last year)…might any of these workers done well in their investments and buy a house with that money??? Do all these factors dramatically impact the Real Estate market? No, of course not, yet if each positive indicator increases the willingness for people to purchase a home by 1 or 2% then this adds up quickly.
Are there signals that the market slowing down, yes, however if it continues to appreciate at a moderate rate in then good for me. If it declines then it would have been wiser for me to rent and buy later. The Seattle market did not have as much massive speculation as many Florida & California markets, thus probably not going to have as significant correction. Timing the Real Estate market is like timing the stock market. If you plan for the long run you will be fine.
To clarify, these 3 new lots in education hill new construction are not offering ANYTHING to folks buying there. There were multiple offers on ALL 3 lots with escalation clauses.
However your claim that builders are offering incentives is true in Issaquah Highlands.
In Redmond - not a chance!! The claim that here these is a 10K rise in price sounds abt right - thats what I am seeing and am shell shocked!!
Another tidbit DR Horton has a project coming on redmond way - townhomes sort about 2000sqft range per home, starting in 600'sK. As of now these builders seems awfully confident.
Again, the biggest culprit here is the lousy transportation system we have here. If traffic was not such a damn mess certain areas around some key companies would be so high priced. Now no one wants to commute. I am on this mailing list at work and NO one wants to even go from NE 40th St to avondale Rd cause traffic is a bloody mess, 1/2 hr for 5 miles!!
I'm in the same situation as a lot of the people here. I just moved to the area in the past year. I have cash from my sale in Texas, but I make a little under $100k. With my cash and income I could afford maybe $340k. I can't get anything for that. No, I am not buying a condo either. Those will be the furst to fall and I've spent the last five years in a condo. I'm done with that. If prices do not drop in five years then I'll just move somewhere more affordable. In the meantime, I'll be investing my liquid assets in the stock market.
Sash,
Maybe I'm missing something but I can't find the proposed D.R. Horton development on Redmond Way on their website.
http://www.drhorton.com/corp/MapSearch.do?metroId=45
Can you show us a link?
Drive by on Redmond Way you will see this gigantic poster of theirs on the road. It is on their coming soon map, a friend of mine had called the builder directly for information & pricing. She is looking for a home there cause she hates the commute to Sammamish.
Also, please look through city of redmond's approved land development projects. Its listed there too
I too can attest to having seen the big DR Horton sign on Redmond Way. It's right about here, on the north side of the street.
I'm sure it will be a highly desirable development, right underneath / next to those big transmission lines.
Tim, Excellent observation. Plus redmond way is a busy road also. I would consider these nuisance factors.
However have you guys wondered ever how the first phase of the SFO style 3 story homes on the corner of 148th and Redmond way all sold out?! Better yet, late last yr one of them was flipped also, and sold for 100 to 150K above the purchase price!
Apparently there are folks who dont mind that.
There are quite a few new houses going up on NE 40th, just down the street from Microsoft. It would be a great commute, but I don't know who's going to afford these houses (Someone is trying, because several are already sold).
One lot has 3 houses so large and so close together I thought they were condos at first. Why on earth someone would want to buy a huge house on a tiny lot with views of only your neighbors' walls is beyond me. All three of these houses have already sold, I believe. They've been under construction for at least 6 months, including during the big rains, their particle board walls open to the elements. I wonder how much water damage and mold they're hiding behind that stucco.
The other place is a new subdivision called The Palisades that is advertising "From the $1 Millions!". They only have three houses started and the lots are somewhat bigger, but $1 million? Who's buying these? It seems to me that anyone will to pay so much for a house would want more than a plywood box with fancy window dressing. But that's just me, I guess.
To the person who thought me to be a realtor - ha ha ha!!! I am like most a FT employee who is struggling to find a home here. And wondering if relocating to another city is better ;)
There is another bigger joke of a new construction that i can point you guys too in that area: This was formerly someone's estate and now converted into this project of 30 odd homes by a mid range builder conner homes. the homes are veritical, again SF style 3 story. Better yet access to the homes is via a condo complex ;) Its all in a hilly area - so houses are odd elevations of land!
Ofcourse the lots are SO SMALL. Not even 4000sqft!! So much so a neighbor can pretty much hand you salt thro the window just like in CA areas near all those hot shot companies like Cisco. Best part - they already taken/sold and have a long priority list ;)
I just CANNOT reiterate more that the MAIN problem here is the lousy commute, single lane roads like 202, narrow interstates like 405. Otherwise where is the problem. Its ridiculous that to drive 12 miles from bothell to redmond it takes more than an hour at peak time!!
Also, the city of Redmond is SO SLOW to give out permits. Then what happens for new homes is that builder say by the time the lot is released prices are already up for new homes. This stinks too!
I am not sure of where there 1 mill$ homes are btw? Can you clue me in.
I am not sure of where there 1 mill$ homes are btw? Can you clue me in.
The ones I mentioned are in the new Palisades subdivsion, which is currently only three houses under construction with several more empty lots. It's on NE 40th St just west of Bel-Red. This is just a few blocks from the northeast corner of Microsoft main campus.
Correction: I noticed as I drove by on my way home from work today that the new subdivision is actually called The Palisade at Wilshire.
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