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Monday, January 04, 1982

01.04.2007 - Thursday Open Thread

This is your open thread for Thursday, January 4, 2007. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.

17 comments:

Jim Davis said...

The Real Estate Bloggers site quotes an article from the Boston Globe indicating Wall Street has soured on sub-prime loans following the failure of Ownit Mortgage and Sebring Capital Partners. See http://www.therealestatebloggers.com/2007/01/04/is-wall-street-souring-on-subprime-loans/.
Have any of you had problems finding financing for buyers that need sub-prime money?

sash said...

http://money.cnn.com/2007/01/04/real_estate/home_sales.reut/index.htm?postversion=2007010412

Is the worst over?

MisterBubble said...

"Is the worst over?"

Har.

These folks sound like the "technical analysts" who were buying dot.com stocks during the temporary price plateaus in late 2000.

"My analysis indicates that we have broken through a line of resistance, and now it's time to buy buy buy!"

Gag.

wreckingbull said...

Jim,

I think it is a little soon to see that. The beer goggles are just now starting to wear off for those who have purchased stinky debt. I think in six months, they will really see what they have done, and at that time, you will see the ramifications in the loan origination office.

As far as I can tell now, sub-prime money is still sloshing arouund like usual.

blueskitten said...

I've been watching Redfin for new listings lately (as I'm moving in a few months and will be putting our place up for sale soon).

In the past 24 hours, Redfin shows 121 new listings between downtown and northgate. Fortunately only four are comparable to my property. But... yikes. Happy new year.

Lake Hills Renter said...

So is there a reason this blog is now HTTPS? I get an annoying confirmation dialog every reload the comments because the secure/insecure mix. =P

Matthew said...

Spring 2007 is "D" day for the market. The slide starts then....

phasmid123 said...

I just thought of something...with the continuing sliding of the weak US dollars....you think this will attract more foreign investors? Will this prop up the housing mkt decline?

synthetik said...

Think rents are going up?

My wife and I are not going to renew our lease here downtown in March. Too many tourists, lots of pollution and no place to get groceries.

I spoke to two property owners today and here is the lowdown.

The first is a 3/2 1700 sq feet in upper Queen Anne. I offered $200 off their asking price down to $2000/mo which they've accepted - just have to bring the wife back for one more look. Dogs are OK and we've got a garage and a nice yard. Close to shops, etc. The owner bought in 2005 with interest only loan. If they run into financial difficulty that could obviously be an issue, but the owner says they've got loads of cash.

The second is a 1500sq foot penthouse in Pioneer square asking $2700/mo and considering my offer of $2200/mo with a 2 year lease.

This is only anecdotal and we're in no rush to do anything so I'm sure I'll have more evidence in the next few weeks.

I'm sure it's possible that rents may be increasing on the lower to mid-range area AND it's probably a good thing that we moved here in March.

It seems like winter is always a good time to rent property in Seattle - in my limited experience anyway.

Tim,Vic and Mr.B said...

So Matthew, What gives? why so sure? Just speculating and that's your opinion? or do you have so annecdotal evidence to support that thought. Everybody here likes annecdotal evidence.

Andrew said...

@Lake Hills Renter
If you are getting secure vs insecure errors because of https: Stop using IE6. IE7 or firefox will not display that message...

@phasmid123
I'm also wondering how foreign investment due to weakness in the dollar is going to affect the RE market. My theory is that if the housing marked does NOT crash, this will be a contributing factor...

Lake Hills Renter said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Lake Hills Renter said...

I'm already using IE7. I changed mixed content from prompt to enbale, but I still don't understand why comments on a housing bubble blog need to be secure, particularly when the main page isn't.

The Tim said...

LHR,

I don't know why the comments page is now an https. It's apparently a byproduct of the migration to the "new blogger." My best guess is that they made it secure because the login required for commenting is now synchronized with Google Accounts.

For instance, all I have to do is sign into Gmail, and then I'm already signed in for posting to the blog as well as commenting. It probably has something to do with that.

Cam said...

As a side note, I am now Cam after the migration. I was biliruben, but can't figure out to get back to my old handle. Or maybe just don't care enough.

My real name's Cam, btw. ;)

Just thought I'd let you know for continuity.

matthew said...

I say spring of 2007 because that will be when we see a huge amount of new houses being put on the market. Coupled with many downtown condo projects being near completion. Spring/Summer of 2006 was also a record year for prices in Seattle. I think that with the increased inventory we could see negative YOY prices for the first time in a long time in Seattle. All we need is a little media coverage, and BANG! Panic sets in. Couple that with an economy that should be slowing/receding at the same time and you have the perfect storm.

Of course thats just my personal prediction.

The Tim said...

Cam/Biliruben,

I think you should be able to go here and change your "Display Name" to Biliruben if you so desire. Just make sure you scroll all the way down and click "save profile" when you've made the change.