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Friday, January 08, 1982

01.08.2007 - Monday Open Thread

This is your open thread for Monday, January 8, 2007. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.

14 comments:

T,V & Mr.B said...

I think some of you guys have been saying this exact thing for a couple of weeks now, and here it is in the new york times today....
"But those who think that the worst may be over for the housing market should take another look at the data, economists say. For the figures on new-home sales have a strange wrinkle that, in the current environment, may lead the government to overstate sales (and to understate inventory) by up to 20 percent. “The market is weaker than the data say,” said Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s/Economy.com.

T,V & Mr.B said...

Andthis from Weyerhaeuser...The two shutdowns, which affect 86 people at the plywood mill and 42 people at the veneer plant, were difficult decisions according to Cathy Slater, vice president of veneer technologies.

"Weyerhaeuser made the difficult decision after a strategic review of the company's veneer business," Slater said. "There's a shrinking demand for plywood panels because of the decline in housing starts and the increase availability of alternative products. After careful consideration of all the options, a decision was made to close the two facilities."

Wanderer said...

I would just like to take a moment and recognize t,v & mr,b as the most valuable rookie poster. [There is no slight meant by "rookie" either... it is kinda like a Japanese BB player getting rookie of the year in MLB after being a star for a decade in his home country.] His (?) posts are always well reasoned, supported by facts, and draw upon a realistic appraisal of experience in his profession. Keep it up.

T,v & mr.b... you complete me.

T,V & Mr.B said...

Ahhh Wanderer,
You are too nice. My profession really has nothing to do with the housing market,I am just obsessed, I guess with this blog and where the market is heading, as a potential buyer in the future...short or long, we shall see. But thank you for the kind words. You had me at " I would just like..."

redmondjp said...

Not surprizing about the plywood mill shutdown.

Seen any new homes that actually use plywood lately? Not me!

The new $1M crapboxes down the street: chipboard/waferboard/OSB or whatever you want to call it everywhere, even the sheathing on the roof (bad idea--had some in my roof from a previous repair less than 10 years old and it didn't work out, whereas the 29-year-old original plywood is still doing fine).

wreckingbull said...

The exception to that rule, redmondjp, is Seattle McCraftsmans. I have never seen more rought-cut T1-11/batten in my life.

Nothing like paying 7 figs for a plywood-sided house.

The football-shaped plugs used to replace knot holes add 'that extra elegant touch'.

Mikhail said...

Does anyone know if there is any data available as to trend data for sub-prime, and exotic, loans in the Puget Sound area?

Specifically:
- what percentage of all Puget Sound mortgages have exotic mortgages?
- what percentage of all Puget Sound mortgages have sub-prime mortgages?
- what percentage of all exotic mortgages in the Puget Sound are sub-prime (are all exotic mortgages sub-prime, by defninition)?

It is the prevalence of exotic, and sub-prime, mortgages that I think will be the biggest indicator as to how bad things are going to get with a real-estate downturn. If we could find data about these kinds of loans, it might help us better understand the real-estate market of our region.

Cam said...

NY Times article on Census overestimtes cited above.

matthew said...

I would encourage everyone to visit the "Calculated Risk" blog that is linked from this blog. There is a very interesting article on "sticky" house prices and a foreshadow on how the "bubble" will most likely deflate slowly rather than quickly. You can learn more from reading that blog about RE than by reading just about anything else.

I would particularly recommend that blog to people like FinanceGuru and/or any of the other dissenters on this blog but yet that have a somewhat open and some understanding of economics. The articles are very balanced and the blog commentary well informed.

Just my 2 cents for the day.

Richard said...

This LA Times article uses an example of ex-homeonwers in the Greenlake neighborhood who were "taken advantage" of by Ameriquest.

These low fico losers had to bail in 2003.

MisterBubble said...

Did anyone else see this offensive piece of shit in today's PI?

From the article:

"Single women have outnumbered single men as home buyers since the mid-1980s and are responsible for 40 percent of condo purchases nationally. Williams Marketing President Leslie Williams...has seen the same trend locally."

But...why? Aubrey Cohen thinks he (she?) has the answer:

"Women also tend to be better with money, said Peter Francese, a demographic trends analyst for the advertising, marketing and public relations agency Ogilvy & Mather...'I get a check, I give it right to my wife,' he said. "If you're not very good at managing money, why would you buy a house?'"

Those stupid men! Don't they know any better? Apparently not:

"There's just something about young men, said Williams, who has 21- and 22-year-old sons....'They don't want to take on responsibilities,' she said. 'They're not ready for that.'"

Right, then. I guess I'm gonna go eat some cold pizza, live in my filth and wait for a woman to whisk me away to a life of financial security. If only I were smart enough to take out an interest-only ARM and finance myself to the gills for a sliver of the American Dream!

Wanderer said...

easy there misterbubble. That stat apparently goes back to the 80's before the questionable financing decisions of the last few years. While you may not be the norm, I don't think it is all that earth shattering to think that single women of the same age would be ready to step into responsibility. There is no judgment against you personally.

MisterBubble said...

wanderer,

If the same story were to theorize that female "nesting instincts" were responsible for the high rate of home ownership amongst single women, the outcry would be so immediate and shrill that you would think that the world's population of female howler monkeys had suddenly gained the ability to write letters to the PI editor.

The statistics are what they are -- it's the writer's interpretation of those statistics that is insulting.

synthetik said...

Millionaire Second Life Property Owner In The News

An article about Anshe Chung who claims to own more than $1M in "Second Life" virtual real estate. www.secondlife.com

Why should anyone care? The problematic press conference was held after Anshe Chung's makers claimed their assets, such as islands, would now be worth more than $1m, if traded in. I confess a prejudice against the Graefs ever since their avatar appeared on the front cover of Business Week magazine last May. Anshe Chung, as "land baroness" of Linden Lab's Second Life, is the ultimate symbol of the bubble: a crude 3D representation of a geek's Asian fantasy, generating money only by the sale of worthless assets to greater fools; the poster girl of a company, Linden Lab, that prospers only as long as the press remains credulous and marketers clueless.

And you thought "REAL Estate" was worthless...

The youtube video where her Second Life interview was hacked where she endured a parade of flying penises...

Too funny!!!