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Wednesday, February 07, 2007

Guess What? Inventory Up, Sales Down.

An inside source has supplied me with the latest NWMLS statistics, and they tell exactly the story you would expect if you've been paying any attention at all during the prior nine months. For what is now the tenth month in a row, inventory was up and sales were down YOY. In fact, sales have been in the negative YOY since November 2005, making January the fifteenth consecutive month of declining sales.

Here's your SFH summary:

January 2007
Active Listings: up 22% YOY
Pending Sales: down 6% YOY
Median Closed Price: $429,495, up 10% YOY

As is the custom, I have uploaded an updated copy of the Seattle Bubble Spreadsheet that contains the relevant data. The public NWMLS pdfs are not available yet, but when they are I will update this post with the link. [Update: And, here it is.]

Here's the supply/demand YOY graph:

It would be a stretch to call the upward curve on the sales graph a "recovery" since it is still in negative territory, but sales are certainly now slowing as much in the last few months as they were during the summer months. Will we see the all-powerful "spring bump"? We'll know in just a few months...

Here's the chart of supply and demand raw numbers:Finally, just because I'm in a charty type of mood (also I'm in Atlanta and there's nothing much better to do), here's a graph of the YOY percent change in the median sale prices of single-family homes in King County since 1994:Wow, that latest dip sure is steep... Huh.


Matthew said...

And to think, this is just the start of 2007! Its going to be a loooong year!

Herb Wright said...

Sorry you're in Atlanta.

To me, the graphs show a slowdown in activity from what was probably the 2nd wildest period in Seattle real estate since I've been in it. Nothing has topped 1988 to early 1990 so far.

Do the graphs show 'Bubble' or a slowdown ? The slowdown YOY are not really tremendous. I have seen more buyers visiting listings now compared to December, but that is typical cyclical behavior. The key to the year's market will start in a few weeks........the typical busy season pick-up starts by the end of February.

I'm betting on the usual increase in sales, but the whole year may lag YOY from 2006 and 2005. Even if 2007 lags those two years, we have a long way to go before substantial numbers of sellers reduce prices.

deeplennon said...

"I'm betting on the usual increase in sales, but the whole year may lag YOY from 2006 and 2005. Even if 2007 lags those two years, we have a long way to go before substantial numbers of sellers reduce prices."

The man has a point. Though things have slowed down a lot over the last 9 months supply is still historically low.

Spring is going to show us everything.

Eleua said...

Wait until you see what happens in September. If the Spring/Summer falls flat, September will be known as the month there was a run on Depends.

Mikhail said...

I don't know what the significance is, but ziprealty is reporting 41 listings in my Bellevue zip code as of today. Back in October it was over 90, and then dropped sharply in November.

Either homes are selling like hot-cakes in Bellevue, or people are taking listings off the market hoping to get a better chance of selling in April or May.

synthetik said...

Good work Tim.

10 consecutive months of increasing inventory coupled with 15 consecutive months of declining sales... Looks like we've hit bottom!

Christina said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
biliruben said...

I figure I'll track how poorly or well my predictions were:

5423, 440K, Dec (actual)
6100, 450K, Jan (est) - 5932, 429K (act)
6800, 445K, Feb
7500, 455K, Mar
8200, 455K, Apr
9100, 450K, May
9200, 440K, Jun
9300, 435K, Jul
9900, 430K, Aug
10500, 410K, Sep
10500, 395K, Oct
9000, 390K, Nov
8500, 390K, Dec

So far, a little low on both inventory and median price of SFH.

Terry said...

I know readers of this blog are mostly interested in topics relating directly to Seattle / King County, but check out the 270% jump in median sales price of condos in Kitsap County. Wow!

A jump from $159k to $435k is noteworthy, but with only 33 sales for January 2007, it wouldn't take very many high end sales to dramatically skew the median upward.