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Friday, October 30, 1981

Monday Open Thread

This is your open thread for today. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.

16 comments:

Mikhail said...

Apparently rental rates are falling like a rock in south Florida.

http://www.heraldtribune.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061029/NEWS/610290603

Maybe the reason we are seeing divergent trends (up in some places, down in others) in rents around the country is simply an indicator as to the different stages of the popping bubble each region is in. South Florida is just further along the trends than the Puget Sound.

Richard said...

My suspicion is that until we see the end of the condo conversion trend here, it won't be apparent what the supply balance on rental units really is.

Of all the condo conversions I've seen, there were at least 3-5 months where the units were completely off the market. Having several apartment communities in an area completely disappear for a while puts a sharp (albeit temporary) restriction on the number of units available.

PugetHouse said...

The election is getting close. I'd love to see some discussion on I-933. The initiative looks to me like a Trojan Horse aimed at manipulating WA/RE for the benefit of REIT's, one of the fastest-growing investment sectors.

I wouldn't want to commandeer the thread if there's insufficient interest. Are at least three people up for discussing I-933?

redmondjp said...

pugethouse,

933 is an interesting and complicated issue but one well worth discussing (and definitely related to RE valuation).

What I find interesting is the huge amount of $$$ that the powers-that-be are spending to defeat this measure--I have maybe only seen one pro-933 ad on TV, compared to hundreds and hundreds of anti-933 ads. This fact alone makes me really want to vote for it.

But it's a complicated issue, and has more of an effect on undeveloped land outside of the urban growth boundary area than it does on urban RE. I tend to agree with the premise that if the gov't tells you that you can't do something with your property, then they should either compensate you for it or give you a property tax discount for your loss of use.

OTOH, I'm not for a free-for-all when it comes to what you do with your property either. Nobody wants 25 junk cars in their neighbor's front yard, or a rendering plant next door.

So there's a balancing point there that we're trying to find and we're not there yet IMO--the pendelum is still swinging towards the more restrictive, 'big gov't knows better what to do with your yard than you do' end of the spectrum.

As an example, in Redmond if you own a RV and it's parked on your property, you have to have it completely hidden now. Most people without RVs probably think that this is a good idea, but this encroachment upon personal property rights is endemic in modern urban centers today. What's next? Banning cars over 10 years old? Prohibiting houses painted a certain color?

So with that in mind, I think that 933 is an effort to tip the scales back towards the center a bit. It will not remove all land use restrictions, and certainly will NOT cost the gov't anywhere near what the scare-tactic ads claim (all based upon that one study from urban liberals at the UW) it will.

Flame on!

The Tim said...

Nobody wants 25 junk cars in their neighbor's front yard...

...and you know a thing or two about junk cars, don't you?

;^)

octopuswithafez said...

Prohibiting houses painted a certain color?

most HOA already do that...

Lake Hills Renter said...

Prohibiting houses painted a certain color?

Already have this in a non-governmental way -- Homeowners Associations. I'm a libertarian at heart, so private property rights trump as far as I'm concerned. I do understand that people might not want to look at their neighbors' RVs or something, but that's the price of living in society. As long as it's not infringing on someone else (and that isn't IMO), then they have a right to do it. The offended neighbor is free to move somewhere they don't have to see their neighbors -- which is what I want to do.

Lake Hills Renter said...

most HOA already do that...

Which is yet another reason why I will never live under a HOA.

redmondjp said...

I'm happy to report, Tim, that none of my 7 cars fit the City of Redmond's definition of "junk" (in a non-running condition for greater than 30 days)--ok, one does, but that one's safely out of Redmond's reach in a secure, undisclosed location in Seattle (bwa ha ha hah).

25? I can only dream . . . (but then I'd certainly have to move and I might not be married any longer)

(sniff, sniff) Don't make fun of my disease, it's not nice . . . I'd go to a JA meeting but the scrapyard they used to have them at is now the Woodinville Costco.

PugetHouse said...

I'm glad to see some democratic ideals out there. The thing about I-933 is that it has two main parts:

I. Compensating property owners for "legislative takings"

II. A bunch of other crap to subsidize the starving lawyers.

It's amazingly subtle and deceptive. I'm 100% for the protections from legislative taking. The riders, however, are terrible, and frankly, bizarre.

Matthew said...

When does everyone predict we will see the first YOY price depreciation?

Crashcadia said...

Looks like the fall out from the housing crash is starting to hit the papers.


Daily Circulation Falls at U.S. Papers

Also notice that the New York Daily News is owned by a real estate developer.

With real estate and automobile ads declining, who will fund the papers?

rentalbliss said...

Has anyone else noticed all the we buy houses signs around. I know they have always been around, but last week someone was actually going around house to house and leaving sticky notes about a company or whatever that buys houses, It even said if not now keep this info for the future. And today I noticed on every single electric pole the same we buy hoeses signs, about 4 per block. Do these people not read the news or are they just preparing for the future wave of ARMs resets and foreclosure notices and tyring to make a profit on a down? Do they think or know poeple are going to start panicking soon?

MisterBubble said...

"What I find interesting is the huge amount of $$$ that the powers-that-be are spending to defeat this measure--I have maybe only seen one pro-933 ad on TV, compared to hundreds and hundreds of anti-933 ads. This fact alone makes me really want to vote for it."

That's a really silly instinct. Do you also want to drive drunk and shoot heroin because huge amounts of money have been spent to discourage you from doing so?

I-933 is a poster child for the problems of the initiative system. It's special-interest legislation, backed by a handful of rich lobbyists, that would never in a million years be passed by a responsible legislative process.

"I think that 933 is an effort to tip the scales back towards the center a bit. It will not remove all land use restrictions, and certainly will NOT cost the gov't anywhere near what the scare-tactic ads claim (all based upon that one study from urban liberals at the UW) it will."

Now that I know that your sharp mind is on the case, I guess I can sleep soundly, while ignoring the opinions of the many, many people with legal training and experience who disagree with you.

But hey...that's the problem with those "urban liberals" ain't it? Their fancy-pantsy "knowledge" is always gettin' in the way of their action!. Yee-haw!

Lake Hills Renter said...

I've also seen signs for "real estate apprentice, make $20k/mo". Homemade signs at that, really makes me want to sign up.

redmondjp said...

I-933 is a poster child for the problems of the initiative system. It's special-interest legislation, backed by a handful of rich lobbyists, that would never in a million years be passed by a responsible legislative process.

Wow. FYI, in case you haven't seen how our gov't at the state and federal level works these days--what you have described above is exactly how it works. And the special interests are within the gov't as well as on the outside.

Just remember that when you get labeled an 'enemy combatant', are stripped of your constitutional rights, and are thrown in a cell somewhere without so much as a phone call . . . all the result of this very same "responsible legislative process" you seem to think is going to save us all.