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Sunday, October 25, 1981

Wednesday Open Thread

This is your open thread for today. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.

17 comments:

MisterBubble said...

Here's a direct link to the housing study (6MB PDF!) from the Research Institute for Housing America, that shows that boomers aren't moving from the suburbs in the great herds that Realtors would have us believe.

I guess it's up to the childless to keep us afloat....

MisterBubble said...

From the executive summary:

- "the rate of second-home ownership among 50-60 year olds...has remained flat over the 12 year period from 1992-2004. The early Baby Boomers were no more likely to own such homes than older cohorts"

- "At the national level, empty-nest retirement-age suburban homeowners are not flocking to urban areas in great numbers."

- "Suburban empty-nesters are just as likely to move to a non-metropolitan area as they are to an urban area."

- "When the urban-to-suburban flow of empty-nesters is taken into account, the net migration effect from the suburbs to urban areas is -7.2 percent."

Kaleetan said...

Here is an interesting article in the Seattle PI.

The 2000 Census: Looking for kids? Baby boom's in the suburbs and towns

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com
/local/32195_babyboom23.shtml

Slinky said...

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061025/ap_on_bi_ge/economy

Choice quote:
"The worst is behind us as far as a market correction — this is likely the trough for sales," said David Lereah, the Realtors' chief economist.

I beg to differ, in fact I don't think we've even hit the dead cat bounce yet.

What those national stats don't show is how the median price per square foot is falling (fast) and state-by-state variation. It hints at that with the comment that prices in the northeast are falling faster than prices in the west or the south, but does not go into further detail.

So, even if the median SALES price isn't slipping that far, if the median price per square foot is falling, it follows that house prices overall are declining. People are buying much, much more house for the same amount of money.

Also germane to y'all (but not necessarily the PNW housing market): the article title is somewhat misleading. The 3q profit is lower than this time last year, but still a profit. It seems the Airbus woes have lead to an uptick in Boeing orders. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20061025/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_boeing

redmondjp said...

(Paraphrasing David Lereah)

HEY FOLKS, THIS IS THE BOTTOM, WHOOPEE! WE'RE HERE, THIS IS AS LOW AS IT'S GOING TO GET. BUY NOW OR GET PRICED OUT FAHEEEEEEEEVERRRRR!

Add some scary music, and this would be perfect for a haunted house in one of those empty unfinished developments outside of Phoenix, eh?

Hey--I have an idea for your Realtors out there--this weekend have a haunted house instead of an open house--probably get more traffic that way!

Kaleetan said...

When do we get the numbers for the sept existing sales and The MLS Breakout stats?

How did the Seattle area do?

This is the headline on msnbc.

Existing-home sales keep falling
Year-over-year median sales price drops by the largest amount on record
WASHINGTON - Sales of existing homes fell for a sixth straight month in September and the median sales price dropped on an annual basis by the largest amount on record, further documenting a lukewarm housing market

Lake Hills Renter said...

I guess it's up to the childless to keep us afloat....

Don't wait on me! I'm childless and plan to stay that way, but there's no way in hell I'd buy a condo, no matter the housing market. I want a house with acreage, not a cell in a honeycomb. I lived in apartments for over ten years, so there's absolutely no way I'd buy one.

synthetik said...

>not a cell in a honeycomb.

I agree with you - not only do I think it's a poor investment, but where is the community?

I'm looking forward to living in a neighborhood again. Right now we're in a apt downtown and it's no different from condo living. Everyone keeps to themselves.

I've lived in neighborhoods before and people look out for each other. I remember spending lots of time getting to know my neighbors and I never had to worry about my place.

Don't have a chainsaw? No problem... borrow it from a neighbor and then pay them back by removing all their pron-spyware.

Anyone have any suggestions for a good hood'? Of course, we'll be renting, but we can rent a house. The wife and I like being close to the city... I like some of the neighborhoods near greenlake or fremont. Lower queen anne seems nice too - and close to the city. Seems like Cap. hill is the place to get your car stolen...

redmondjp said...

Synthetik said: I'm looking forward to living in a neighborhood again. Right now we're in a apt downtown and it's no different from condo living. Everyone keeps to themselves.

With regards the last statement, I think the same is true in SFH-land, at least out here in the 'burbs. I'm not even sure that within Seattle proper, things are that much different.

One of my former coworkers bought a house N. of the U District about 6 years ago. It had hardwood floors, except for a piece of plywood in the middle of the front room. When he asked RE agent why that was, he was informed that the former owner had expired, permanently, in the front room, and nobody noticed, for months. As a result, they had to cut part of the floor out. I was at his house and saw the spot. How sad.

To me, this is an indication of how unimportant real community is to most people these days--it's not a function of how close you are physically to other people. We are more likely to sit in our own living rooms and type comments on blogs, than we are to actually get off the couch and go meet the neighbors, who could be sitting on their couch doing the same thing, 10 feet away . . .

S Crow said...

So my kid gives me an envelope from their (private) school office this morning. I open it. It's a form letter going out to parents:

Oct 18th, 2006....(paraphrased)

"......we have recently had an unusual amount of delinquent accounts for tuition & programs. We remind you that timely payment is critical to school programs and ...."

hmmm.

Lake Hills Renter said...

I think the same is true in SFH-land, at least out here in the 'burbs.

I've experienced the same, but I thought it was maybe because I'm renting. I've lived in my neighborhood for almost three years, and I only know the neighbors immediately bordering me, and even then only enough to say hi.

Case in point, that shooting in Bellevue that was in the news the last few days was only a few houses down from where I live, and not only did I now know them, but I didn't know any of their neighbors interviewed on the news either. Other than the police cars down the street, it might as well have happened miles away.

half bear said...

Anyone have any suggestions for a good hood'?

I lived in a low-income apartment building in Rainier Beach while we saved for our home. It had none of the problems you might expect from "low income housing" and the community spirit was fantastic. We walked to the grocery and drug store, and always knew our neighbors. It was NOT a pretty building, or a pretty neighborhood, but we saved a LOT of money living there and made some good friends.

Now we live in Skyway, SFH land, and know all our neighbors. Sadly it is a bit too far to walk to the store, but we are within walking distance of the best city park (Kubota Garden). People are generous and thoughtful and really look out for us. It is the kind of neighborhood where people will drag your trash can back out of the street for you or bring you fresh fruit from their fruit trees. Again, it is not one of the fancier addresses. But I wouldn't trade it to live in QA or Cap Hill now that I've found this.

redmondjp said...

half bear,

It's great that you have found a couple of living situations in which you have a sense of community spirit. It does really make life more enjoyable. I have made an effort in my neighborhood to get to know the neighbors but it has taken several years. I even brought them Christmas cookies which truly shocked some of them (the looks on their faces were priceless).

I grew up in a much smaller town back in the 1970s during which it was still common to greet new neighbors with some cookies and introduce the kids. I still remember the 'welcome wagon' PSAs on TV. This has certainly influenced my sense of community.

I wonder if there is any correlation between income level and sense of community spirit. Or does it have more to do with geographic location? Certainly (as described) has something to do with one's upbringing and own values.

And how to know when you're looking for a residence (be it to own or to rent) what the community spirit is? An intangible to be sure, and usually one of those things you find out about after having moved in . . .

Joe Consumer said...

Let's face it, people don't move to Seattle for a sense of community. That's what the Midwest is for.

Seattlites are too busy enjoying the outdoors with their close group of friends to notice their neighbors.

Seattlites are like hotel front desk personnel. They've got this compulsory politeness that doesn't really go beyond a hello, or 'you go first at the four way stop'.

Seattlites are polite, but not that nice. New Yorkers, in contrast, are nice but not necessarily polite.

When is the last time someone you just met invited you over for a bbq or football game. Doesn't happen much out here. Back East, in the midwest, happens all the time.

If you want community, move (can you see my straight face as I write this :)

Crashcadia said...

I wonder how Centex’s earning will affect their building plans for Cascadia.

Centex and Cascadia

Centex profits plunge 60% and write off of $130 million related to land purchase cancellations and revaluations.
Centex Earnings

Ardell DellaLoggia said...

"Best hood to rent in", just outside of Green Lake. I like the area around 92nd and Densmore called Licton Springs...still walking distance to the Lake, but far enough not to be pricey. My sister is slightly handicapped and she's been renting a house there for years. The next door neighbor takes her trash out every week. She sends both neighbors food. They look out for each other.

Apartments back behind Beth's Cafe with a view are cheap. Aurora's a little rough, but people who live around there don't spend a lot of time ON Aurora.

I know of a duplex by Green Lake that will be coming up soon...after I find "Adrianna" a house. Rents for $980, but sometimes they up the rent with a new tenant. I'll find out more about it.

Richard said...

Licton Springs

I lived there for a while and liked the proximity to Greenlake (the springs feed Greenlake). But it's a tiny neighborhood north of 85th (no sidewalks) also bounded by the freeway, Aurora, and Northgate Way. It also has street hookers, above average property crime (even with the North Precinct office smack in the middle) and there's no grocery store.

The appreciation has been incredible though. Condos have nearly doubled since 2002 and SFH's are way up as well.