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Sunday, October 11, 1981

Wednesday Open Thread

This is your open thread for today. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.

30 comments:

Hork said...

Cheerleading realtors misleading people seems fine to me. If more people buy overpriced houses and have to foreclose when the market crashes, it's good for me since it will bring prices further down and allow me to get a better deal.

I also think this price inflation is a great thing for getting rid of realtors. Now that companies are developing internet services to replace realtors, we'll see them disappear like travel agents.

So thank you cheerleaders who are both getting me a good deal and cutting out the middleman at the same time.

Matthew said...

Sometimes I wish people would use more common sense. I was in another argument with a co-worker... Home owner since 2001. Doesn't think that housing in the "greater Seattle area" is going to be affected by any price correction. I asked him why and he simply had no reason. The more people on the street I talk to think that housing may level off, but will not drop drastically. When you ask them for reasons, they really don't give you much.

I ask them who is going to be 420,000 dollar houses. I graduated college in 2001 (I'm 28 so if that takes away my credibility so be it). I am currently in the 75,000-100,000 dollar income bracket. I make more than most people I know that graduated in the same time frame as myself. If I am barely able to afford a liveable house in this area, how are my friends and fellow graduates going to be able to afford a house at the current prices??

I have friends in this area that are attorney's, doctors, computer programmers, etc. All of them are currently renting. A few co-workers my age have bought houses, but they are at least 45 miles out of Seattle. Do people honestly believe that these prices are going to sustain themselves? If you sit and think about it, does it really make sense to you? I don't see how it possibly can. How are the new wave of first time home-owners going to afford houses?

Answer: They aren't. People are going to stop buying (which they already are) inventory is going to increase (which is already is) and prices are going to correct themselves to a point where a first time buyer can buy a house that is reasonable. I'm not saying a McMansion, but a decent first time house. It WILL happen, and is happening. We are just witnessing the first stages.

The Tim said...

Speaking of inventory increasing, what happens this month will be very interesting. I don't necessarily expect it to, but if inventory actually continues to go up from September's number, then we'll know that we've turned a corner. Inventory has not increased from September to October as far back as I have the data (2000). What I think is more likely is that inventory will be flat to -5% from September's number, still up 25-30% from last year.

synthetik said...

With the recent local "housing slump" headlines, you'd think more people would try for a quick exit.

I suppose the opposite could be true; maybe they think we've turned the corner and they'll "wait it out"

I just got an interesting email from my old condo-FB landlord.

I sent him a list of foreclosures going on in his building, wondered what his situation was...

Here is his quote:

"thanks for that info.....useful. Yup i dont know what the heck happened their , but all the idiots who cant afford their condos seem to all reside in [name of Condo], and are in forclosure! How am i supposed to sell at my asking price of 515 when others are selling for orignal sales price!! ARRRG! Im just waiting it out, wait till those forclosures sale."

I don't see where he's not screwed??

Eleua said...

ARRRG! Im just waiting it out, wait till those forclosures sale."


Hope springs eternal.

Several months ago, there was a thread on SB about our predictions by quarter. I used the search function, and I couldn't find it.

I'm curious about the predicions we all had, and how they are playing out. I did a quarter-by-quarter prediction, and I would love to have that back.

Anyone know how to do a detailed search? I typed in Eleua, and only got two responses. My guess is I have posted much more than that over the past few months.

The Tim said...

I've noticed that the "search this blog" bar at the top doesn't really work. Just use Google. For instance, a site search for the word Eleua returns 124 results.

However, I'll save you the search. I believe this is the post you're referring to.

flopfolder said...

Matthew,

I share many of your concerns. For full disclosure, I graduated the year after you (2002) and don't even live in the Seattle area. I am still finishing up grad school in Mass (home of the housing bubble crash), but should be moving to the Seattle area in about a year. I hope to be in the market for a Seattle area home in about 2 years.

I got interested in this blog basically because I like to do my due dilligence before plopping down any substanial amount of cash.

The Tim,

As to inventory, if the numbers at housingtracker.net are at all meaningful, it would seem likely that an increase in inventory is in store.

Eleua said...

Amazing! I must really suck. Whenever I use the search function, nothing comes up.

Yes, that is the post I was referring to.

Thanks.

Eleua said...

I just searched for me again, and I got one response.

Hmmm... I think I must be doing something wrong.

noose papier said...

This property was listed for $525,000:

http://blog.seattlepi.nwsource.com/georgetown/archives/106765.asp

Now it is listed at $499,000:

http://seattle.craigslist.org/see/rfs/217316471.html

burn baby burn.

Matthew said...

just looked at the housingtracker.net we are looking at .5 increase over the past week.... Looking ripe for more inventory MOM for the first time since 2000 from September to Oct.... It was last updated 10/9... as long as it is accurate we could be seeing an interesting development.

Geon said...

Here's one I've been keeping an eye on:
Purchased 6/15/05 for 664K, been on the market forever and has recently been dropping 50K every 4 weeks. They started out at 925K or so, now down to 749K, can't be much profit left in it. I assume they sold a lesser priced house in the same area for a small profit recently, since I don't see it listed.

http://www.johnlscott.com/PropertyDetail.aspx?GroupID=32603092&ListingID=26638949&Sort=0

Surprising to still see houses still selling at 800K to 1 mil. plus that have been on the market awhile in the southend.

S Crow said...

Two C-17's in formation just went over my house in Snohomish, making my Dog go wierd.

Last time I saw that was 9-11, when I saw 7 in formation flown over the waterfront in Edmonds.

I thought, "the last time they did this was to 'raise the peacock feathers' as bit, otherwise known as "showing force."

Now it makes sense: evidently a small aircraft hit a building in NYC a short time ago today.

We live in strange times.

Lake Hills Renter said...

I've been watching the houses for sale on my route to work and noticed something has happened a few times. The sign will be up for a few weeks, then it will just disappear. Usually when a house sells, the sign stays up with a "Sold" placcard on it for a while. So I presume that these houses were just taken off the market and didn't sell?

One of the houses on my route sold this week, but another one went up. Still holding firm at 8 houses in 3 miles of residential eastern Redmond/Bellevue. Some have been on the market for months.

wreckingbull said...

YOU WILL ALL BURN IN HELL

According to Marlow, you are not a good citizen if you do not own a home. Will someone please crack a window to clear out the smell of desperation?

SDtoSEA said...

Just to show you how much the experts know:

Just last week Moody's predicted an 8.5% drop in San Diego home prices by 2008.

http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/05/real_estate/moodys/index.htm

Well, the new numbers came out today and we're already down 8.1% from the peak!!

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20061011-1231-bn11homes.html

This is going to get very interesting.

cosmos said...

While it is rather a crude measure, I have been keeping these stats a while now - and the trend is obvious.

Windermere.com Seattle "Area Search" - areas 2,6,3,7,11,4,8,& 9.

8/27/06: 2431 listings
10/1/06: 2762 listings
10/11/06: 2860 listings

Christina said...

Now it makes sense: evidently a small aircraft hit a building in NYC a short time ago today.

Now I'm waiting for some condo owner from Snohomish County to get drunk and drive his car into a sports bar, threatening Yankees fans with his gun. (Reference: Department of Justice)

plymster said...

Nice post, wreckingbull.

It's sad when Realtors start citing studies whose "results are not conclusive". Wierd that a study on areas with a lot of homeowners (primarily suburbs and rural areas) finds that they "have lower government spending, but spend a larger share of their government budget on education and highways", while areas without homeowners (industrial, shopping, and dense urban areas) spend more money (though presumably less per capita).

Thank goodness economists are conducting important studies that report important findings like "people with lawns are more likely to garden", and "people stuck in one place tend to be more likely to know their neighbors and name their congressmen". Since when does growing petunias and rhodies make you a better citizen?

I wonder if the pilot who crashed into the NYC building was a homeowner?

Matthew said...

From the AP-

Though earnings news loomed large on Wall Street, many investors had been focused on gaining a clearer picture of where the Fed stood on interest rates and inflation. The Fed minutes dashed hopes, however slim, that the central bank would soon consider lowering interest rates and raised questions about the well-being of the economy.

"These minutes give no hint that the Fed is going to ease. The markets have this kind of dovish Fed in mind that is itching to pull the trigger to cut rates," said Ethan Harris, chief U.S. economist at Lehman Brothers Inc. "Some of the talk in the stock market about the Fed giving them a little present in the form a rate cut is overly optimistic."

Matthew said...

I think earnings on Wall St. could be considerably lower than expected. Alcoa is already projecting lower than expected earnings and so has Genentech.... Could be an interesting week for the economy...

SELL SELL SELL!!!

Matthew said...

Looks like OPEC is going to announce a cut in oil production within the next 2-3 days.... Rumored to be around 1 million barrels.

Eleua said...

I wonder if the pilot who crashed into the NYC building was a homeowner?

Sick, very sick. But very funny.

Tommy LaSorda is in a bunch of ads for FOX Sports where he is helping people, who are fans of eliminated teams, cope with the fact their team is out, but there is fun to be had by watching the remaining four.

He has helped a Cubs fan out of a tree. Now this with the Yanks.

Eleua said...

Looks like OPEC is going to announce a cut in oil production within the next 2-3 days.... Rumored to be around 1 million barrels.

What Goldman-Sachs giveth...OPEC taketh away...

dalas said...

synthetik, I understand that you are still sore from the missed opportunity in 2003. Perhaps you should have read some other real estate/economic books.

i love this blog, bunch of posers pretending to know what they are talking about...

synthetik said...

That, and from the time I spent in jail with my cellmate "tiny".

Nolaguy said...

Great post, Dalas. Thanks for bringing so much value to this blog.

EconExchange said...

"I wonder if the pilot who crashed into the NYC building was a homeowner? "

Actually it was Cory Lidle from the NY Yankees's who died in the crash.

plymster said...

i love this blog, bunch of posers pretending to know what they are talking about...

I think Tim's and other posters' predictions from earlier this year are a bit more on target than David Lereah's. But then, David Lereah does nothing but get paid to analyze Real Estate as a career, while this is a hobby for most of us.

seattle_slow said...

So where's the Shugster these days?

-slow