Tuesday Open Thread
This is your open thread for today. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.
Off-topic comment? Interesting link?
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15 comments:
Elizabeth Rhodes Responds
After reading the most recent Seattle Times Real Estate article addressing the slowdown, I was rather disgusted by the softened, almost fluffy version that Ms. Rhodes had spun. So, while sitting in my pajamas and spitting coffee at the monitor whilst muttering explitives, I banged out a short missile to the queen of real estate spin. I pressed "fire" and let it fly.
I certainly didn't expect a reply -- not after accusing Ms. Rhodes of being a shill for the real estate industry, or having a leash put on her by her editor -- but she took the high rhode and responded in a polite manner:
"Dear Peckham,
Real estate is both cyclical and seasonal. I think the line you quote is from a story I wrote earlier this year and was accurate at that time. It was for a long time, too. Countywide house prices here climbed for 7 consecutive months -- a much more sustained period of price growth than
we had last year. Now we're going into the seasonal fall/winter market slowing. And we may
be at the end of our price growth cycle, just as we were in 2000. But
it's too soon to tell. Every month I write a story about what happened with the previous month's home sales. So it stands to reason that the story will change. Thus all I can say is what's happening at the moment, and that's that
price appreciation is taking a breather as far as King County
single-family homes are concerned. Not condos, though. They're still
appreciating."
Well, whether I agree or not, the woman is entitled to her opinion and to analize the data any way she likes. By responding she has disarmed me... damn it!
I was reading an article in the Stranger entitled "Taking the Initiative; Sizing Up November's Ballot Measures." What caught my attention was the following line about I-920:
"I-920 repeals the tax on inherited wealth that burdens the 250 richest families in Washington. The estate tax (or death tax, if you talk like a Republican) falls on estates worth over $2 million, exempting farms and timberland if they make up at least half of the estate."
Does that mean what I think it means -- that there are only 250 families in Washington State with a net worth over $2M? If yes, what does that say about the fiscal health of the seemingly endless supply of pawns that are buying homes which appear to be priced for the upper crust?
Now we're going into the seasonal fall/winter market slowing.
More like a cyclical '07/'08 market slowing.
Liz Rhodes does respond, I've written a few times. The problem is the response she gave you... this "which ever direction the wind takes me" line that groans of hypocrisy especially when she's quoting RE shills and their ilk who say "30% over the next 5 years!" crowd. She's not a reporter at that point but an editor of Realtor(TM) quotes... which is B.S.
Don't worry all, 2007 is quickly approaching... Soon we will all have data that will be getting harder and harder for the MSM to deny!
FYI, I'm on jury duty today, so I won't be able to read or respond to comments until after 5:00.
I took a bike ride through a residential neighbourhood just behind the Crossroads mall in Bellevue last night, and was just astonished at the number of for-sale signs I saw. These are all VERY modest homes from the '60s and '70s (most are 1 story ranch get-ups with 2 or 3 bedrooms).
On one corner there were 3 homes for sale, all spruced up with new siding and newly land-scaped yards.
I wonder why these people are all rushing to put their homes on the market now? Why weren't they selling back in April?
Anyway, it's as if some secret signal just went out that everyone needs to sell.
it's as if some secret signal just went out that everyone needs to sell.
The greatest fool always knows who he is.
Great article from yesterday on CNN
http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/09
/real_estate/arms_nightmare/
index.htm?postversion=2006100913
"n the past two years, homeowners took out 1.3 million ARMs with teaser rates below 2 percent, according to Cagan's research."
"Of those, 21.5 percent have negative equity, where the market value of the home is less than the amount owed. The number of people in that spot could go up significantly if home prices fall as forecast or if homeowners with teaser-rate-ARMs experience job loss, illness, divorce or a death in the family, which are the main causes of mortgage default."
Yeah, for some strange reason the owners of the place I'm renting might want to list in November. Huh? I haggled over the length of the lease back in February, because they DIDN'T want to sell in the winter! So I gave in, and my lease does not expire until end of January. Now they want to list right at the beginning of the winter??
Oh, and the house right across the street from me is for sale now too.
NEW YORK (AP) -- Stocks turned mixed Tuesday morning after Dallas Federal Reserve President Richard Fisher said the decline in home prices won't spark a recession but warned that the U.S. central bank will raise rates again if inflation doesn't ease.
Susan has been pushed over the edge
Susan Ryan posted a new blog entry about the merits of dark hardwood flooring. The first comment was that dark + Pacific Northwest = gloomy. Pretty benign post.
Anyway, comment deleted and blog entry closed to comments.
I have to give her credit for hanging in as long as she did. All I can say is that if I were about to engage her as my Realtor®, I would think twice, based solely on the activity of that blog.
Western Washington:
September sales down 15.7% yoy
Inventory up 41% yoy
http://www.inman.com/inmannews.aspx?ID=57709
peckhammer - Regarding the number of estates projected to be subject to WA's estate tax, I couldn't find specifics, but here is some national data from Center on Budget and Policy Priorities:
"Increases in the exemption level have drastically reduced the number of estates subject to tax. Already, the number of taxable estates has dropped from more than 50,000 in 2000 to fewer than 13,000 in 2006, and it will fall to about 7,000 when the exemption level rises to $3.5 million ($7 million per couple) in 2009. Put another way, a little over 2 percent of all estates were subject to tax in 2000. Today, only one-half of one percent of people who die — that is, 5 in 1,000 — pay any estate tax, and that number will fall to 3 in 1,000 in 2009 ."
Does anyone have an opinion about Peak Oil?
I do. I've done some reading, checked out Mr. Kunstler's site weekly since July, made some economic and lifestyle changes and am planning more.
Owning land and a home is nice when one considers making a vegetable garden.
It's been gratifying to discover other people are cluing in as well: I may feel like a doomsayer nut, but at least I am no longer an isolated doomsayer nut.
It's a pity Ms. Ryan is no longer allowing comments. It seemed for a while that as long as the commenters weren't insulting or vitriolic their points would stay on. I wonder if a vulgarian spoiled the comment party for the rest of us.
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