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Saturday, October 03, 1981

Tuesday Open Thread

This is your open thread for today. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.

18 comments:

Christina said...

Don't know if this has been shared already: a February 2006 paper on mortgage rate resets.

Illuminating statistics on how many ARM loans are "at risk," and the current equity percentages for home purchasers by year.

Oddleif said...

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/287337_housing03.html

PI article about mortgage payments oustripping income... I mean, you had to see that coming right? Right? Geesh...

Matthew said...

http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/03/real_estate/real_estate_agents/index.htm?postversion=2006100312

A good article about people that quit their jobs to become RE agents during the boom, and finding that the well is running dry!

plymster said...

Trevor,

If the National Association of Realtors was a labor union, and we were union workers, you'd be a scab, my friend.

--- Marlow Harris

Seattle RE News

Things seem to be a little testy in the Realtor world. Apparently, Marlow Harris (of the Seattle PI RE Pro blog) thinks that anyone who isn't charging full price is a "scab" of the Realtor Union.

Funny, I didn't know they were on strike. No wonder sales are down. ;-)

Eleua said...

Trevor,

If the National Association of Realtors was a labor union, and we were union workers, you'd be a scab, my friend.

--- Marlow Harris


I read this and it is getting testy.

As for scabs...

I am in a labor union. I do union work, and I wouldn't spit on a scab if he was on fire.

Undercutting your brethren isn't being a scab. It is annoying, detestable, and ultimately self-destructive, but it is NOT what makes you a scab.

Crossing a picket line and working for management, under a legal strike, makes you a scab.

I understand the frustration when some newbie undercuts the profession. The underlying vitriol can be quite caustic.

I had a conversation with a big-volume Realtor in the Dallas area, and she said many Realtors will not show a house that is not listed with the 6% crowd. I'm sure that is illegal/unethical, but it is a reality.

Just the same, I won't allow my family to fly on airlines that hire 200hour, zit-popping wonders. We either take my airline, pay to fly some reputable carrier, or drive.

MisterBubble said...

A new(?) John Rubino interview mp3:

“It’s very possible a housing bust in 2007 turns into a general recession. You have the real danger of this snowballing into a serious, economy-wide, problem.”

Oddleif said...

Yet another industry zealot touting a potential catastrophic collapse to the whole hay ride... Why is it that average people have seen this coming for some time taking into account common sense analysis?

Who here thinks the Fed is going to try and lower rates again to attempt to 'band-aid' the recession problem? Oh man...

Eleua said...


Who here thinks the Fed is going to try and lower rates again to attempt to 'band-aid' the recession problem? Oh man...


Count me in.

Dollar bonfire is on the way.

Crashcadia said...

If the dollar collapses internationally then countries will dump their reserves. A total collapse of the dollar could prompt a move to petro-euros. Things would get real ugly for the U.S. if that happens.

If recession hits the economy then demand for oil will drop both here and abroad. This may also reduce the need for other countries to reserve dollars. Perhaps they would even start purchasing our goods with their deflated U.S. dollars. Perhaps they will just purchase more of our Ports, Toll roads and bridges. Perhaps they will just purchase more guns for hire.

So we have a choice between lower interest rates and a falling dollar or higher rates and a deeper recession/depression.

May you live in interesting times.

darth_s said...

Interesting story about a real estate agent – from making 195K a year to making sandwich in New York – "I'm going home; my real estate career is over.." I’m wondering about the fate of 2 of my co-workers that left my company last year to become realtors in Seattle.

http://www.nysun.com/pf.php?id=40411

Eleua said...

crashcadia (that is the best bubble-blogger name for the PNW),

If I were the Supreme Despot of the FED, I would save the dollar. In fact, that is their mandate, but lately they have been running on the applause meter.

Recessions suck in the short term, but they are absolutely necessary for the long term health of the economy. Bad businesses get wiped out, bad debt gets extinguished, margins recover, and new ideas get a chance to flourish. Recessions also send a powerful message about risk and risk management, which tends to get drowned out by the go-go times of a raging bull market

Inflation is just poison for the long term health of the economy.

-Save the dollar
-Cease free-trade with slave/peasant nations
-Balance the federal budget

Crashcadia said...

Eleua,
You are correct. The Fed must save the dollar.

With that said, this asset bubble is in its later stages.
Just keep watching the dollar index. When it starts to drop below 83, I think the Fed will have to react.

This is going to get interesting.

Eleua said...

I think the Fed will have to react.


I admire your optimism.

My guess is the FED will cut at the first sign of real trouble. In fact, I think the recent pause and rhetoric is setting up the next round of cuts.

They will cut until the dollar gets in real trouble, and then it will be too late. The economy will be in a doozy of a recession, and their only option will be to hike and hike hard.

I think the FED is really worrying about how they get 77,000,000 Discoballers into retirement. A doozy of a recession in the next few years would just kill all the retirement dreams of the largest, and most ill-prepared generation in the history of Western Civ.

Imagine all the 401(k) plans getting crushed to 20%, or less. Housing will be lucky not to lose 2/3. You can raise taxes on GenX, but they won't have the spare income or assets to tax.

You can bet the latest crop of immigrants won't pay taxes to retire a bunch of old white people.

How much is the gov't in debt? That is why I think they will print and ultimately default.

Crashcadia said...

A default would render all future treasury notes worthless. This would spell the end of the empire.

The ECB as well as the BOJ will be moving rates higher, so the FED must do the same. I expect the liquidity to begin drying up after the November elections. I also look for a major correction in the stock market prior to the elections. The smart folks will continue to move to bonds.

We will know in a few short weeks.

If you are correct about the FED letting go of the dollar, then I have only one thing to say.

Soylent Green is people.

dalas said...

scrow,

To address to your previous post about 4506T. Just to point out that there's a new portfolio lender in town that will only require...

"one day at the job if salary"
"no asset stated on the application"
"no seasoning requirement for cashout"
"1 day out of listing for even cashout"
"1 day on title"

Oh, they offer the lowest rate on the market, too...You can do whatever, but you cannot stop portfolio lenders to do whatever they want.

Another thing, "no doc" means zero document. It does not require a job listed on the application, no income, no asset being disclosed...

Escrow is just escrow, you guys see what you see over there, but it's still a small part of the picture.

Eleua said...

A default would render all future treasury notes worthless. This would spell the end of the empire.


Default or monatization? Either one renders the holders of the bonds getting zero or next to zero in return.

The end of the empire came when we thought we could consume our way to wealth. Default is just playing out the hand.

We are "drawing dead."

S Crow said...

dalas-

Good point about the portfolio lenders. They can set any underwriting guideline they wish. Sounds like the lender you are referring to may be sub-prime?

I understand the no doc, low doc, NINA, etc. terminology clearly, but many readers on this blog do not, so I comment to as if I am talking to knew consumers in the market to purchase.

Not certain I understand the rest of your comment regarding escrow's role. Escrow cannot stop anyone from doing anything, so I'm uncertain what you mean for the readers to understand.

dalas said...

scrow,

it's actually a prime lender that beats out all but one or two lenders. too good to be true? that's what I thought as well...