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Tuesday, November 10, 1981

Friday Open Thread

This is your open thread for today. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.

I apologize for the light posting this week. I have been very busy with a major project at home. Thankfully, after this weekend, it's all downhill.


Doug said...

Hi Tim (and friends). I've been really enjoying this blog lately. I'm a RE market watcher in Montana, so it's good to see news and real analysis from the Northwest.

I made a little video about my market and, amazingly, a local TV station found it and e-mailed me. They want to do an interview and show parts of the video on their evening news later this month.

Just wondering if you or your readers have any advice on how to come across. The reporter already said she was interested in knowing my motivations for making the video.

Presumably, I'm going to be viewed as a sort of doom-and-gloomer who wants to ruin the party, put developers out of business, and flush our economy (largely based on construction) down the toilet. I think we have some real problems, and I want to point them out without coming across as a jealous renter.

Any ideas, besides wearing kevlar after it airs? Thanks.

(For the record, I am a renter. But honestly, the more I rent the more I enjoy it. Even if I thought it was wise to buy today, I'm not sure I'd give up the flexibility of renting).

The Tim said...

Hi Doug,

Thanks for the question. I'll be posting it as its own post so that you can hopefully get more responses. Also, I didn't realize when I watched your video that you had a site associated with it. I'll be adding that site to my sidebar this weekend.

Nolaguy said...

I found an interesting perspective from a group we don't hear much from: appraisers.

The sad truth is we may not have seen the worst of it. That is, if appraisers have to start checking any of the “no-no” boxes, then all bets are off on a soft landing.

He gives a pretty good overview of the role of appraisers and how they influence the lending market.

Anonymous said...

On Wednesday, Ardell said:

"King County Inventory:
Over $1M - 1,025; highest sales in one month 210, expected 105. 8 or 9 month supply
Less than $200,000 - 246; highest sales in one month 309, expected 150, less than 2 month supply"

Thanks for the breakdown you did that looked at months of supply for each price range in KC. That was really helpful and interesting. I look forward to seeing the analysis you were planning to do of those stats broken down by area (Kirkland, Redmond, etc.).

I'm interested in what will happen to lower-priced properties when the market is oversaturated by higher-priced properties (as it seems to be from your analysis). How might price reductions "trickle down" from the high-priced properties to the lower-priced ones?

Geon said...

Flipper update:

Back on the market after a week off and listed for $700K, down another 50K. Bought for 664K in June 05. At this point, I think they've rehabbed it for free... or at a loss.

rentalbliss said...

Doesn't everyone want a 700k home in Federal way built in the 70s. How they possibly thought they would get more is truley unbalievable. The power of wishfull thinking hard at work on this one.

Geon said...

They started out asking around 958K (give or take).

Richard said...

Bill Gross's November newsletter has an interesting summary of the current credit/asset price bubble. He touches on several of the macroeconomic issues that keep popping up in discussions on this site.

"To be fair, the BIS also points out that there may be numerous fundamental reasons that justify lower risk spreads. Globalization, the “great moderation” of economic growth in recent decades, increased central bank transparency, and the innovation and promulgation of financial derivatives, which can disperse and spread risk as well as promote increased liquidity are but a few of their major arguments. I concur with much of their logic. But I also agree with Alan Greenspan and economist Hyman Minsky that stability can in time be inherently destabilizing as overconfidence leads to lower and lower risk spreads, more and more financial leverage (Ponzi finance as Minsky called it) and an ultimate vulnerability to the economy and its financial markets on the downside."

rentalbliss said...

Not sure if this has been posted yet

From Seattle times on Seattles commercial real estate, I was wondering if anyone has any comments on how this would effect our housing market and economy as a whole?

The article states how Seattle is high on the list for commercial real estate, with investors paying high premiums for rents and commercial property. There is no mention of the reasons it would attract more businesses to the area only investors.

My question is how would this affect seattle, it seems higher prices would drive more businesses out instead of bringing them in. And how would that effect consumers higher priced goods and services as rents increase?

Excuse me for not being that savy but am I missing something as to why this would be a positive? Would this mean incomes will grow along with it?

Seattle Eric said...

Regarding the Federal Way house, it's even worse that you think. Before I get to the blow by blow, some highlights:

- Bought by an entity (Infinity Properties, Ltd.
- An $800K private party mortgage recorded on 2/17/06 (read: hard/private lender = higher than market rates)
- As of today, on the market for 428 cumulative days
- 8 different listing numbers

These investors were complete idiots. I know some of you think I'm a fool with my flips, but these people take the cake. They're so upside down, it's pathetic. Ironically, given last spring's market, they could probably have sold this for $700K.

I'm also guessing that either the listing agent had some stake in the investment, she is a complete and utter idiot, or thoroughly unethical. I think I'll report her
ass to the MLS.

Here's a timeline of all the price changes.

6/30/05 - Sold for $664K
6/25/05 - New owner lists for $795K, marketed as a 'pre re-model sale' (talk about balls)
7/16/05 - Price increased to $895K
11/3/05 - Listing cancelled
12/20/05 - Relisted (same agent throughout) at $998,500.
02/06/05 - Price drop to $989.5K
2/23 - Drop to $989.3
3/9 - Drop to $979.9
3/20 - Drop to $978.9
3/23 - Drop to $977.9
3/24 - Drop to $976.5
3/26 - Drop to $975.5
3/28 - Drop to $974.5
3/29 - Drop to $973.5
4/1 - Drop to $972.5
4/3 - Drop to $971.5
4/6 - Drop to $958K
4/12 - Cancelled
4/13 - NEW LISTING # @$958
4/28 - Cancelled
4/29 - NEW LISTING # @ $899K
6/14 - Cancelled
7/3 - NEW LISTING # @ $895K
7/26 - Drop to $889,234
8/4 - Drop to 849,999
8/4 -(SAME DAY) - Drop to $849,500
8/30 - Drop to $799K
10/4 - Expired
10/4 - NEW LISTING # @ $799K
10/5 - Drop to $749,900
11/7 - Expired
11/9 - NEW LISTING # @ $700K