Seattle Bubble has moved! Redirecting...

You should be automatically redirected. If not, visit http://seattlebubble.com/blog/and update your bookmarks.

Off-topic comment? Interesting link?
Head over to the forums, or click here for open threads.

Friday, November 06, 1981

Monday Open Thread

This is your open thread for today. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.

27 comments:

Matthew said...

Couple of good articles...

Option Arm Holders: Time to Panic?

Inflation signal flashing red

Matthew said...

My favorite line from the Option Arm article:

"Fixed-rate loans are like basic arithmetic. Adjustable-rate mortgages are like algebra. Option ARMs are like calculus. Plenty of homeowners are furrowing their brows in calculus class when they should be memorizing their multiplication tables."

MisterBubble said...

Oh boy, oh boy....Experts Say that condo boom is just starting!

Mostly the same old arguments, but this non-sequitur caught my eye:

"Williams, a Seattle company that works with home developers, set the tone with its invitation, noting that Seattle's 228 households per square mile downtown lags far behind the 680 per square mile in downtown Vancouver, B.C., the 701 in San Francisco and the 3,223 in New York."

MisterBubble said...

Of course, it might be hard to get that downtown density to Manhattan levels, when the "urban" sales pitch focuses on the bustling city life of Ballard and Wallingford:

"Denser urban centers also are catching on outside of downtown, in places such as Ballard and Wallingford, Ziegler said. "People don't have to move from their neighborhoods to enjoy the condominium lifestyle."

You heard it here first, folks...you don't have to move to the Big City to enjoy the "condominium lifestyle" -- today's loan products make it possible for anyone to own their own apartment in the suburbs!

wreckingbull said...

Anyone notice the 'experts' quoted in Aubrey Cohen's condo rah-rah article:

- A developer representative for Williams Marketing
- A vice president of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage's Builder Division
- An economist with Impresa Consulting of Portland

Hmm....looks like an infomercial to me. The P-I should be ashamed. At what point are they obliged to place 'Paid Advertisement' on the page header?

PugetHouse said...

Thanks, Mr. Bubble.

Hilarious! Where do I sign up? The entertainment value's gotta be worth a 70k-80k equity bump.

Kaleetan said...

I know someone that has an option ARM (300K) and they are due to have the reset take place next summer. I bet they have no idea what is going to happen and are just assuming they can do another refi, get some cash out and have the same deal every two years. It will be interesting to watch it all play out.

I will know the credit/housing bubble is trully bursting when I see these people start to pack up the belongings.

PugetHouse said...

SeattleBubble has friends at DeutscheBank & the Mortgage Brokers Association. They've provided the only hard estimate I can find so far on reset mortgages. Chart #48 of the pub. shows the dollar value of hybrid (i.e. "teaser") loans hitting their first reset dates in the US market:

'05| ~$75 billion
'06| ~$375 billion
'07| ~$1 trillion

According to the fluffy white paper from LoanPerformance, the US market has:

$19 trillion in housing assets
$11 trillion in equity
$2-3 trillion in mortgage originations

The LoanPerformance paper is heavy on spin, but seems to have lots of legitimate data. What's certain is that 2007 will be a huge refinancing year. It's also apparent that the teaser resets will affect around 5.25% of the national housing inventory. THAT IS LARGE.

The trillion-dollar question is: how many of them will have too-little equity to refinance?

synthetik said...

>I will know the credit/housing bubble is trully bursting when I see these people start to pack up the belongings.

What a great indicator. I generally wait until my tires are bald before replacing them because I'm just not sure they really will go bald until there is just no more tread left.

Deejayoh said...

Talk about your unbiased sources for a quote! From the Williams Marketing website...

"With over 10,000 condominiums sold, Williams Marketing has emerged as the dominant leader in the marketing and sales of condominiums and town homes in Seattle and throughout the Puget Sound region."

I dealt with these guys on a townhouse I was thinking about buying - and thankfully did not! Their employee profile seems to be a mid-20's realtor wannabee who sit in an open house and takes offers. I think they will be reducing employment levels shortly.

meshugy said...

OCt. MLS #s are up:

MLS

Interesting that sales went up MOM and inventory went down. Looks like the market is gaining steam again.

However, the median price went down slightly MOM.

Kaleetan said...

thanks sythetic

"What a great indicator. I generally wait until my tires are bald before replacing them because I'm just not sure they really will go bald until there is just no more tread left. "

I am just saying that for me to believe the current housing/credit seattle bubble has popped(it hasn't yet has it?), then these subprime borrowers will be foreclosing next summer. I would expect them to foreclose, just as I would expect a bald tire to someday burst.

If housing prices do go up and they manage to refi out of the trap they are in, then I will be under the impression the credit/housing bubble has not popped and nothing has changed.

Has the seattle bubble popped? and Is it a given that it will?

Synthetic, are you are assuming it will pop ?

silenttimes said...

meshugy,

Thanks for MLS link.

PugetHouse said...

OCt. MLS #s are up
vague but true:

October MOM pending volume and transactions were up, which is not what happened last year.

Of course, we are a bit behind last year's records, but who expected to chase them this year?

Matthew said...

The Shuginator once again posting his MOM stats!

Lake Hills Renter said...

The Shuginator once again posting his MOM stats!

Yup! Welcome back, Meshugy!

synthetik said...

>Has the seattle bubble popped? and Is it a given that it will?

Yes and Yes.

>Synthetic, are you are assuming it will pop ?

It already has "popped".

Kaleetan said...

>It already has "popped".

The seattle bubble has already popped? Hmmm interesting...that would make this blog a moot point if there is no bubble.

Well at least the worst is behind us now that the bubble has burst.

Wow that was quick...

It already has popped huh? Your a friggen genius Synthetic.

Kaleetan said...

Where is your proof that the seattle bubble has popped?

Do you have any facts that support this claim or are you just spewing rhetoric?

synthetik said...

I'd explain it to you, but I doubt that your mind could understand such complex equations such as addition and subtraction.

You don't even make a good troll. I've heard that the troll school system had declined in recent years, but -- goodness!

synthetik said...

kaleetan -

Next time you decide to hijack someone's handle, you might want to choose your words a bit more carefully.

Your bigoted comments under my handle on RCG are "friggen" uncool.

Wanderer said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
PugetHouse said...

Synthetik,

Great avatar. Impressive how you seem to teleport during that move.

Russell said...

I'd say it is popping as we speak. Check out 2325 W VIEWMONT WAY W on ziprealy. Asking 939, purchase price 1.050! That's a bit of a haircut.

It won't be the last one like that we see.

synthetik said...

The bubble taking a dump here in Seattle is, as David Brent's old band was named; a "foregone conclusion"

Peckhammer said...

I'd say it is popping as we speak. Check out 2325 W VIEWMONT WAY W on ziprealy. Asking 939, purchase price 1.050! That's a bit of a haircut.

It proves the point that there's an ass for every seat.

synthetik said...

Thomas Jefferson on Banks:

"I believe that banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around [the banks] will deprive the people of all property until their children wake up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered. The issuing power should be taken from the banks and restored to the people, to whom it properly belongs."

--Letter to the Secretary of the Treasury Albert Gallatin (1802)