Monday Open Thread
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15 comments:
Couple of good articles...
Option Arm Holders: Time to Panic?
Inflation signal flashing red
My favorite line from the Option Arm article:
"Fixed-rate loans are like basic arithmetic. Adjustable-rate mortgages are like algebra. Option ARMs are like calculus. Plenty of homeowners are furrowing their brows in calculus class when they should be memorizing their multiplication tables."
Oh boy, oh boy....Experts Say that condo boom is just starting!
Mostly the same old arguments, but this non-sequitur caught my eye:
"Williams, a Seattle company that works with home developers, set the tone with its invitation, noting that Seattle's 228 households per square mile downtown lags far behind the 680 per square mile in downtown Vancouver, B.C., the 701 in San Francisco and the 3,223 in New York."
Of course, it might be hard to get that downtown density to Manhattan levels, when the "urban" sales pitch focuses on the bustling city life of Ballard and Wallingford:
"Denser urban centers also are catching on outside of downtown, in places such as Ballard and Wallingford, Ziegler said. "People don't have to move from their neighborhoods to enjoy the condominium lifestyle."
You heard it here first, folks...you don't have to move to the Big City to enjoy the "condominium lifestyle" -- today's loan products make it possible for anyone to own their own apartment in the suburbs!
Anyone notice the 'experts' quoted in Aubrey Cohen's condo rah-rah article:
- A developer representative for Williams Marketing
- A vice president of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage's Builder Division
- An economist with Impresa Consulting of Portland
Hmm....looks like an infomercial to me. The P-I should be ashamed. At what point are they obliged to place 'Paid Advertisement' on the page header?
Thanks, Mr. Bubble.
Hilarious! Where do I sign up? The entertainment value's gotta be worth a 70k-80k equity bump.
SeattleBubble has friends at DeutscheBank & the Mortgage Brokers Association. They've provided the only hard estimate I can find so far on reset mortgages. Chart #48 of the pub. shows the dollar value of hybrid (i.e. "teaser") loans hitting their first reset dates in the US market:
'05| ~$75 billion
'06| ~$375 billion
'07| ~$1 trillion
According to the fluffy white paper from LoanPerformance, the US market has:
$19 trillion in housing assets
$11 trillion in equity
$2-3 trillion in mortgage originations
The LoanPerformance paper is heavy on spin, but seems to have lots of legitimate data. What's certain is that 2007 will be a huge refinancing year. It's also apparent that the teaser resets will affect around 5.25% of the national housing inventory. THAT IS LARGE.
The trillion-dollar question is: how many of them will have too-little equity to refinance?
Talk about your unbiased sources for a quote! From the Williams Marketing website...
"With over 10,000 condominiums sold, Williams Marketing has emerged as the dominant leader in the marketing and sales of condominiums and town homes in Seattle and throughout the Puget Sound region."
I dealt with these guys on a townhouse I was thinking about buying - and thankfully did not! Their employee profile seems to be a mid-20's realtor wannabee who sit in an open house and takes offers. I think they will be reducing employment levels shortly.
OCt. MLS #s are up:
MLS
Interesting that sales went up MOM and inventory went down. Looks like the market is gaining steam again.
However, the median price went down slightly MOM.
OCt. MLS #s are up
vague but true:
October MOM pending volume and transactions were up, which is not what happened last year.
Of course, we are a bit behind last year's records, but who expected to chase them this year?
The Shuginator once again posting his MOM stats!
The Shuginator once again posting his MOM stats!
Yup! Welcome back, Meshugy!
Synthetik,
Great avatar. Impressive how you seem to teleport during that move.
I'd say it is popping as we speak. Check out 2325 W VIEWMONT WAY W on ziprealy. Asking 939, purchase price 1.050! That's a bit of a haircut.
It won't be the last one like that we see.
I'd say it is popping as we speak. Check out 2325 W VIEWMONT WAY W on ziprealy. Asking 939, purchase price 1.050! That's a bit of a haircut.
It proves the point that there's an ass for every seat.
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