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Sunday, November 01, 1981

Wednesday Open Thread

This is your open thread for today. Please post random links and off-topic discussions here.


Oddleif said...

Mortgage applications fall sharply;
Rising interest rates seen a factor

blueskitten said... has a page up today that shows mortgage delinquency rates for all fifty states. The data is from 2Q 2006, but I don't know whether I've seen any such data reported anywhere else. Forgive me if this is old news.

Man, those Katrina states got hammered. Washington state, though not in the top 5 for best payment rate, still had a very low delinquency rate at 2.41%.

Christina said...

A flipper late to the party thinks he can get $548,000 for a house on our street he paid about $360K for three months ago.

Fact: no house on our block has sold for more than $410,000. The house that did sell for that much was bought two months ago.

Fact: if I had $548,000, I would be looking in Ravenna or Wallingford or Green Lake, and not in my neighborhood. I bought in my neighborhood because I had $28K. People with $28K should probably hang tight for a year or two.

Supposition: neither this man nor his agent, who sold him the property three months ago, is paying much attention to rising inventory.

Supposition: this man did not know that the last house on our block that was vastly overpriced sat in a "red hot market" (using realtors' phrase, not mine) for seven months. It was purchased for $50,000 less than the original asking price.

Mikhail said...

Does anyone know what percentage of Puget Sound home-owners have interest only or option ARM loans?

If such a statistic exists we might be able to do some thought exercises around impacts on the market depending on how many of these exotic mortgage holders will wind up in foreclosure. For example, if one assumes a 20% eventual foreclosure rate, on all 100% interest and option ARM loans, then that could mean that 3% of all Puget Sound homes could wind up in foreclosure if 15% of all regional home-owners had these kinds of exotic loan.

Would a 3% foreclosure rate have any significant impact on housing prices, or is 3% foreclosure just normal?

Anyway, I have seen statistics showing that more than 15% of all Puget Sound mortgages in 2005 were of an exotic variety, but I don't know what that translates to regarding a percentage of ALL mortgages in this region.

Slinky said...

Mikhail, it's not the 3% foreclosure rate all by itself that is the problem here. The problem is that the 3% foreclosure rate has been steadily rising over time. If there is a 3% foreclosure rate now when last year there was a 1% foreclosure rate, that is a huge increase. Colorado is the nation's current poster child for what happen when the forclosure rate increases over time.

By the way, Christina, LOVE your avatar! Where're Ricky and Bubbles?

Mikhail said...

What is the foreclosure rate for Puget Sound right now? What percentage of homes are in foreclosure? Is there a way to see the historical trend for Puget Sound foreclosures?

Christina said...

"Guys, we're not going to jail for falsifying our info on our eight mortgaged trailer properties, alright? You have my word. From here on it's smooth sailing, boys."

Bubbles is putting granite bars on the shopping carts to sell them for more money, slinky. And Ricky is training to be an assistant temporary real estate agent.

Did you catch the movie? I saw it twice last month.

Matthew said...

Check this one out...

Can the economy survive the housing bust?

seattle_slow said...

Matthew, thanks for the link! This thing is so over....

Matthew said...

Once you start seeing a "housing bubble/housing doom" type article every week on CNN-MONEY you know it is bound to become a self fulfilling prophecy!