Tuesday Open Thread
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11 comments:
I keep reading a lot about "leading indicators" of the housing bubble burst. I'm curious what people think are leading vs. lagging indicators, and what their reasoning is. I'll even kick this off:
Rising inventory (Year Over Year) coupled with falling salse (again, YOY) has been a leading indicator in other markets (Denver, Boston, SoCal, NoCal, Florida, etc.). It also makes sense that as buyers slowly refuse to buy, homeowners must choose to lower prices, or continue to not sell. Further, speculators must choose to lose a little money now (or lessen their profits), or face cash-flow issues.
Here are some other indicators that I've seen cited from time to time:
Foreclosures
Median Prices (closed or pending)
Price per Square Foot (closed or pending)
Unemployment
Rising Interest Rates
Falling Interest Rates
Housing Starts
Homebuilder Stocks
Here are some specious "indicators" to spar over:
The Superbowl
Bubble Blog Trolling
RE Agent Vacation Cycles
Home Buyers, Sellers Look Beyond Elections
In King County, which accounts for about four of every 10 sales in the MLS service area, the median price of a single family home (excluding condominiums) rose 12.8 percent, increasing from $390,000 a year ago to $440,000 for sales that closed last month. Condo prices jumped 20.8 percent, climbing from a median selling price of $215,000 twelve months ago to last month's figure of $259,700.
"falling salse"? Sheesh I really need to spell check the feces I post.
Kaleetan - So are you saying Building Permits are a leading indicator of a decline in price due to more supply entering the market? Or are you saying it's a leading indicator of a rise in price due to builder confidence?
Also, should we be looking at total population growth (<1% per year since 2000) for all of King County (since I see most people quoting county-wide stats)? Or should we be looking at smaller regions (Mill Creek, Issaquah, Joe Smith's house which increased by 33% since he and the misses had a kid?). How did population growth impact the SoCal markets when they started dropping?
Fries down 400%? That's gotta be the bottom of the market for those (I'm guessing about 10 lbs of fries, aka - the "medium", for 24 cents).
Time to load up on french fried goodness! Buy! Buy! Buy! There's never been a better time to buy or sell fries! ;-)
The return of the Rhodester!
"Housing sales are down, but this has created a greater balance in the market between buyers and sellers," said Lennox Scott, chairman and CEO of John L. Scott Real Estate. Even with the decline, "we're on track to have the third most productive year in the history of real estate," he said.
Pride goeth before a fall
After the flooding of the last few days, I wonder how many houses will be going on the market with hidden water damage and/or mold. Lots of new waterfront property right now in places like Hamilton.
And the Sunshine Point campground at MRNP no longer exists. Crazy weather.
The Breakouts are up:
Breakouts - KING COUNTY SECTORS - Northwest Multiple Listing Service OCT 2006
Seattle's median con/res price is back up to $420K...that was the peak back in July. Amazing....
Dalas, I look at trend in building permits as an indicator, and not an indicator in and of itself. More to the point, the trend of building permits combined with housing starts is even better. One will generally find that a rise or fall in permits lags a rise or fall in starts by 2-3 months.
With foreclosures, I don't think it's the number but the trend. If you were steady at 2% foreclosure for 10 years (all hypothetical here), and suddenly it jumps to 5%, that is a major indicator that something is wrong.
Damn! Look at the breakouts Meshugy posted!
Vashon Res Median Price: -32%
KC Res Active Listings: +30%
KC Res Closed Sales: -15%
KC Condo Active Listings: +50%
KC Condo Pending Sales: -6%
I'm cherry-picking a little, but still, this doesn't look like a "hot" market to me.
"Seattle's median con/res price is back up to $420K...that was the peak back in July. Amazing...."
For once, I agree with you, Meshugy. It is amazing that median prices are up in a market where sales are off, inventories are skyrocketing, and pending sales are falling off a cliff.
(...of course, I also know that a rising median can be misleading when sales are slowing, so I've managed to temper my amazement with logic.)
"Kaleetan said, Building Permits.... New Permits to Build would also be considered one of the best indicators."
Of what? Projects that won't be completed?
The striking contrast tells the tale of a housing bonanza turned bust. Today, the number of unsold homes in the area has soared to almost 46,000 from just a few thousand in early 2005. And builders are pulling back as fast as they can.
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